ArabDigest.org Israel, Lebanon, Iraq - and Washington

Israel, Lebanon, Iraq - and Washington

Summary: unusual Israeli attacks on both Lebanon and Iraq – a mixed reaction from the US.
Following the incident on 25 August when an Israeli drone exploded in south Beirut and a second one was taken by Hizbullah (our posting of 27 August) Hizbullah threatened a reaction "which wouldn't lead to a war". Its leader Hasan Nasrallah said “I say to the Israeli army on the border from tonight, stand guard. Wait for us one, two, three, four days.” Israel did not claim responsibility for the attack, the target of which was reportedly linked to precision-guided missiles, but published details of what it said was an Iranian campaign to enable Hizbullah to produce such missiles. It moved extra forces including tanks towards the border.
Yesterday 1 September Hizbullah said that Israel had fired several shells at the border village of  Marun al-Ras, and the IDF said anti-tank missiles from Lebanon had targeted an army base, and that it had responded with fire; UN peacekeepers came under Israeli fire and had to take cover. Hizbullah claimed to have destroyed an Israeli military vehicle. A forest fire on the Lebanese side of the border was started, apparently by Israel. The IDF said Hezbollah had attacked but failed to cause casualties; “The tactical event on the ground ... appears to be behind us, however the strategic situation is still on…" Netanyahu said Israel would decide on what's next depending on how things develop, as Reuters comments "in a departure from his usually much tougher language towards Israel’s enemies."
The Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri called on the US and France to intervene.
Israel was also almost certainly responsible for a series of explosions at weapons depots in Iraq belonging to the paramilitary Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) (our posting of 23 August); a drone attack on Qaim, on the Syrian border killed a PMF commander. Like Hizbullah in Lebanon the PMF's position in Iraq is controversial. Alongside the Iraqi government forces and the US led coalition it played a key role in the campaign against IS and the liberation of Mosul. But it is mainly Shia, closely allied with Iran, distrusted or worse by the Sunnis, and treated with caution by the government. The Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi ordered all militias to leave Mosul and to integrate with the government forces, but Brigade 30 of the PMF has stayed put, supported by popular protest. Washington has imposed sanctions on PMF, and both Iraqi paramilitaries and Iranian analysts accuse the US of helping Israel to attack PMF, which the Pentagon denies. A parliamentary bloc linked to the PMF has called for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Reuters comments that "No evidence has been provided for the mutual allegations."
There is no recent precedent for Israeli attacks of anything like this nature either in Lebanon or in Iraq. Meanwhile Israeli airstrikes against targets in Syria continue, limited however to attacks on Iranian forces and Hizbullah, not direct intervention in the Syrian civil war.
The US vice president Mike Pence spoke to Benjamin Netanyahu, presumably about Lebanon, and tweeted on 27 August “Had a great conversation with Prime Minister @netanyahu this morning. The United States fully supports Israel’s right to defend itself from imminent threats. Under President @realDonaldTrump, America will always stand with Israel!” Also on 27 August a Pentagon statement on Iraq denied responsibility for recent attacks and opposed "any potential actions by external actors inciting violence in Iraq"; the statement does not name names but can only be interpreted as deploring Israeli attacks on the PMF. Earlier US comments had blamed the tension on Iran, but Iran is not mentioned.
Why the discrepancy? Presumably for the White House the main point is to identify with Israel, while for the Pentagon losing its position in Iraq would gravely weaken its position against Iran.Arab