ArabDigest.org: Khashoggi

Khashoggi

Summary: Khashoggi murdered or renditioned to Saudi Arabia. Will international concern be enough to change policy towards the kingdom?
There is now convincing evidence, short of absolute proof, that the prominent Saudi journalist and commentator Jamal Khashoggi (our posting of 3 October) was detained in the Saudi consulate general in Istanbul on 2 October and taken either dead or alive to Saudi Arabia. There is no evidence to support the Saudi claim that he left the building freely. In what follows we assume, like virtually all other commentators, that the Saudi claim is false.
Innumerable governments have been responsible for renditions and extra-judicial killings. What is special about this case and what will the political consequences be?
First this was a gross abuse of diplomatic immunity (even though international law as codified in the Vienna Convention may not have been directly broken). The best parallel may be the Nigerian-Israeli kidnapping of the Nigerian ex-minister Umaru Dikko in London in 1984 and the attempt to send him and an Israeli doctor to Nigeria in a diplomatic bag. The attempt failed and had its farcical aspects, but several of those involved served prison sentences and the political consequences were serious. Diplomatic relations were broken off for two years.
Secondly, as a journalist Khashoggi had a high profile both in the Arab world and globally. He was a regular columnist in the Washington Post, and the Post has taken up his case vigorously as have many others in the media. There is worldwide concern about violence to journalists.
Thirdly, although both the perpetrators and the victim were Saudi, Turkey is involved if only as a matter of prestige.
Fourthly, the affair comes at a time when much international opinion is already queasy about Saudi Arabia, and MBS in particular, both because of the disastrous war in Yemen and because of oppressive acts in Saudi Arabia itself, as described in our postings of 23 August and 3 October. Reactions so far have been cautious but negative.
President Erdoğan said on 8 October “We have to get an outcome from this investigation as soon as possible. The consulate officials cannot save themselves by simply saying ‘he has left’ ”, adding that Turkey had no evidence on the case (but see below).
President Trump said yesterday 9 October that he did not know the details and had not spoken to Saudi officials; “I have not. But I will be at some point…  I know what everybody else knows – nothing.” Mike Pompeo called on Saudi Arabia to support “a thorough investigation” and to be transparent about the results. Republican Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said everything points to the idea that Khashoggi was murdered; the congressional response would be “tangible… Our relations with Saudi Arabia… Are the lowest ever.” Republican Senator Rand Paul said he would force a vote to reject the next item of arms sales to Saudi Arabia; “It is a point of difference with the president, but who knows, the president may come around on this if there is any evidence they killed this journalist.” According to Bloomberg  Paul narrowly failed last year to block $110 billion in sales to Saudi Arabia because of the Yemen war.
A UN spokesman voiced deep concern at the “apparent enforced disappearance” and possible murder. The British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt tweeted “just met the Saudi ambassador to seek urgent answers…Violence against journalists worldwide is going up & is a grave threat to freedom of expression. If media reports prove correct, we will treat the incident seriously – friendships depend on shared values.” The EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said “We are fully aligned with the U.S. position on this… We expect a full-out investigation and full transparency from Saudi authorities on what happened.” A French Foreign Ministry spokesman said “France is concerned by the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, a recognized and respected Saudi figure. We hope his situation will be clarified as quickly as possible.”
As always governments will face the dilemma: should human rights issues and concern about criminal activities, in this case possibly murder, trump the material interest in continuing to cultivate good relations with a wealthy country, a major oil producer, and one which has shown itself ready (as in the case of Canada) to bite back viciously when bitten? In the case of Turkey a whole range of major interests is at stake but there are already deep political differences; Erdoğan’s first reaction will make it difficult to do nothing without unacceptable loss of face. In the case of the UK the material interest includes in particular weapon sales, something of a sacred cow for government but peculiarly embarrassing because of Yemen. It is probable that material interest will in the end trump moral concern, but there will be more of a struggle than usual, and both the US Congress and the British Parliament may prove less docile than usual.
This is a fast moving subject, with new reports appearing all the time. Opinion is divided on whether Khashoggi is dead or alive. Reports in the Washington Post and New York Times give more detail, some of it grisly. The Turkish newspaper Sabah, regarded as close to the president, has referred to the possible involvement of another country, presumably the UAE, and has published a detailed list, with dates of birth and photographs, of 15 Saudi agents who arrived before and left after the incident (note: the name is always spelt Khashoggi in English, but a better transliteration of the Arabic would be Khashiqji, and the Turkish equivalent is Kaşıkçı – it means spoon maker.) There is a lively exchange in the social media, with some Saudi opposition allegations that MBS now has a blacklist of “traitors” to be liquidated.