WPR Articles Jan. 31 — Feb. 8

Could Trump Revive U.S. Commercial Engagement in Africa?

By: Alexander Benard | Briefing

The Trump administration has signaled that it is likely to scale back traditional U.S. aid programs in sub-Saharan Africa and favor more commercial engagement. Paradoxically, such a shift could be healthy for America’s relationship with Africa, with the U.S. private sector boosting the continent’s growth.

India Plays Catch-Up to Strengthen Ties Across Latin America

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last month, the Indian government approved plans to move forward with talks for a free trade agreement with Peru, which would be India's first in Latin America. In an email interview, Hari Seshasayee, an analyst at the Confederation of Indian Industry, discusses India's ties in Latin America.

Why Multicultural Canada Isn’t Immune to Anti-Muslim Violence and Hate Crimes

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

The massacre at a Quebec City mosque on Sunday has shaken Canada, which is praised as a model for multiculturalism and has strict gun laws. But Sunday’s attack was not in isolation, nor is Canada immune from the strain of intolerance, particularly toward Muslims, that has gained momentum globally.

Why Guterres and Haley Are Set to Become the U.N.’s Odd Couple

By: Richard Gowan | Column

The future of the U.N. may rest on the personal and political chemistry between Antonio Guterres and Nikki Haley. Guterres only became U.N. secretary-general at the start of the year, and Haley began work as U.S. ambassador there last week. But diplomats watching both of them like what they see so far.

On Migration and Security, There Are Actually Three Mediterranean Stories

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Some of the most compelling dramas about the effects of globalization are playing out in the Mediterranean basin, one of the geopolitical nodes where North and South intersect. Three distinct zones in the region show different coping mechanisms with respect to terrorism, migration and economic interdependence.

How Aoun’s Presidency Is Already Realigning Lebanon’s Fractious Politics

By: Samya Kullab | Briefing

The significance of Michel Aoun’s election as Lebanon’s president last fall was not limited to the seat of the presidency. It marked the start of a new era in Lebanon’s notoriously fractious politics, realigning rival political blocs and strengthening the standing of some parties while marginalizing others.

Mauritius’ Democracy Tarnished After Prime Minister Passes Power to Son

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last week, Pravind Jugnauth, the son of Mauritius’ outgoing prime minister, Anerood Jugnauth, was appointed prime minister after his father stepped down. Many have denounced the move and called on the opposition to hold a referendum. In an email interview, Roukaya Kasenally discusses politics in Mauritius.

The ICC Is Flawed. Is It Still Africa’s Best Hope for Justice?

By: Andrew Green | Feature

In December, Dominic Ongwen, a former senior commander in the Lord’s Resistance Army, went on trial at the International Criminal Court amid growing opposition to the body in Africa. Yet Ongwen’s trial might prove that the ICC remains the best mechanism to deliver justice to victims of war crimes.

Trump’s Muslim Ban Pours Fuel on the Fire of the ‘Clash of Civilizations’

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Donald Trump’s move to block entry to the U.S. for refugees and travelers from Muslim-majority states will likely lead to more radicalization and shrink U.S. soft power. The silver lining is the showcase the ban has provided for American civil society, which has mobilized to resist these harsh measures.

For Lessons on How Not to Handle Its Oil-Rich Future, Guyana Can Look to Africa

By: Robert Looney | Briefing

Last month, Guyana seemingly overnight joined the ranks of oil-rich countries when Exxon Mobil and Hess announced one of the most significant oil discoveries in years in the waters off the tiny South American nation. For a relatively poor developing country like Guyana, this good news comes with a warning.

Is America Next Up for a Color Revolution?

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

Is the U.S. ripe for a Color Revolution? If so, who are the democratic revolutionaries and who the illegitimate usurpers? To an outside observer, even an expat American, the protests against President Donald Trump’s Muslim ban bear a striking resemblance to the first stirrings of a popular democratic uprising.

What Stands in the Way of Closer Ties Between Mauritania and Saudi Arabia?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last month, Saudi Arabia signed a military cooperation agreement with Mauritania that calls for joint training, logistical exchanges and improved cooperation. In an email interview, Zekeria Ould Ahmed Salem, a professor at the University of Nouakchott, discusses Mauritania’s relations with Saudi Arabia.

Despite His Tough Talk, the Philippines’ Duterte Faces Long Odds Against Abu Sayyaf

By: Michael Hart | Briefing

After a spate of kidnappings and clashes with the Philippines’ armed forces over the past year, the Islamist militants of Abu Sayyaf have forged a reputation as one of Southeast Asia’s most brutal jihadi groups. That has placed a spotlight on President Rodrigo Duterte’s counterinsurgency strategy.

If Hamas and Egypt Reconcile, Will It Be on Egypt’s Terms?

By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines

Last week, Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ top official in Gaza, visited Cairo to discuss Egypt’s border restrictions and other issues in the Palestinian territory. Egyptian authorities demanded that Hamas cooperate to rein in militancy in the Sinai, in exchange for opening the border. That puts Hamas in a bind.

Why Trump’s Rise Is Sending Latin America Into China’s Arms

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Donald Trump’s first moves as U.S. president spurred renewed determination among Latin American leaders to seek alternatives to the partnership with the U.S., now viewed as unreliable and unpredictable. The winner in this realignment will almost certainly be China, which has been making inroads in the region.

Brexit Rattles Nerves, but Will It Derail U.K.-France Defense Cooperation?

By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines

The ongoing uncertainty about Brexit has raised many questions, especially over what it will mean for European defense policy. While the EU is preparing for the worst, fears of the U.K. abandoning European defense are overblown, in part due to the U.K.’s strong military and defense ties with France.

Looking Back at Obama’s Foreign Policy Successes and Failures

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s episode, the first of two special editions of Trend Lines, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, take a detailed look at former President Barack Obama’s foreign policy legacy by examining some of his successes and failures over his eight years in office.

Want to Lose the War Against Islamic Extremism? Start With Trump’s Entry Ban

By: Steven Metz | Column

President Donald Trump’s order blocking entry to the U.S. from seven Muslim-majority countries has caused furor inside the U.S. and abroad. The move is having a major effect on America’s security, much of it negative. While the ban might be good domestic politics, it defies the time-tested logic of strategy.

Why Uruguay Leads Latin America in Labor Rights

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last year, the International Trade Union Confederation gave Uruguay a top rating, indicating that workers’ rights are infrequently violated. Uruguay is the only country in Latin America to receive the highest rating possible. In an email interview, Adriana Cassoni discusses worker’s rights in Uruguay.

The Last Chance for the Old Guard of Kenya’s Opposition

By: Tiffany L. McGriff | Briefing

Kenya’s most prominent opposition leader, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, will run again in his fourth presidential election this August. The 72-year-old is already laying the groundwork to contest a close race, promoting a narrative in public that the government is actively working to rig the election.

Is EU Membership the Solution to Rising Ethnic Tensions in Bosnia?

By: Mark S. Smith | Briefing

Fears of another war are growing in Bosnia and Herzegovina as xenophobia and nationalist rivalries surge in the largely autonomous and Serb-dominated entity of Republika Srpska. A growing separatist movement, observers warn, threatens the Dayton Accords that ended the Bosnian War of the 1990s.

Is Indonesia Doing Enough to Fight Inequality?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Indonesian President Joko Widodo recently pledged that his administration would focus on reducing economic disparities, calling on ministers to accelerate the implementation of the government’s poverty-eradication programs. In an email interview, Matthew Wai-Poi discusses inequality in Indonesia.

Is Political Islam Really on the Rise in Indonesia?

By: Prashanth Parameswaran | Feature

In October, a controversy over Islam’s role in politics hit Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim country: Ahok, Jakarta’s ethnically Chinese governor, is on trial for blasphemy. The incident has galvanized hard-line Islamist groups, but does it threaten social cohesion and moderation?

As Ecuador Prepares to Vote, Is Correa’s Populist Legacy at Stake?

By: Christine Wade | Briefing

Outgoing President Rafael Correa’s legacy has been omnipresent in Ecuador’s upcoming election—for better or worse. Many predict the race will be a referendum on his “Citizen’s Revolution,” as his successor will be faced with the possibility of dismantling some of Correa’s populist programs.

Why France’s Ties With the U.S. Might Be In for Trouble

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

Donald Trump has expressed deep skepticism of the NATO alliance and open hostility to the EU. The current field of candidates in France’s presidential election means there is a non-negligible chance the next French president will agree with him. But alot could be lost in translation from French to English.