WPR Articles Feb. 14 — Feb. 22

How Brexit and Trump Triggered the Beginning of a Liberal Counterreaction

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

When Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency, soon after British voters opted to leave the EU, the rise of anti-establishment populists started to look like an inexorable trend. But the twin successes of right-wing, anti-immigrant insurgencies triggered a not altogether unpredictable response—a counterreaction.

Are Saudi Arabia and Iran Beginning to Back Away From Confrontation?

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s visit last week to Kuwait and Oman was the latest sign of an improvement in the tone of Tehran’s relations with the Persian Gulf states this year. While the reasons for the shift are unclear, it underscores the strategic trend of greater regional ownership of local problems.

What Chinese Soft Power in the Middle East Reveals About Beijing’s Ambitions

By: Kyle Haddad-Fonda | Briefing

Celebrations of the Chinese New Year late last month in many Arab countries showed the scale of China’s soft power in the Middle East, which is becoming an increasingly popular destination for Chinese tourists. The region is a testing ground for how soft power fits into China’s evolving economic agenda.

Can Mexico Meet the Challenge of Its Central American Migrant Crisis?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss the battle between President Donald Trump’s White House and the U.S. intelligence community. For the Report, Laura Weiss talks with Peter Dörrie about Mexico’s growing migrant crisis.

Angola Prepares for Life After Dos Santos

By: Soren Kirk Jensen | Briefing

The president of oil-rich Angola, Jose Eduardo dos Santos—the second-longest-ruling leader in Africa—announced earlier this month that he will not run in elections in August. It is the most significant political event in Angola since independence from Portugal in 1974, coming at a time of economic crisis.

Is International Cooperation on Terrorism a Glass Half-Full or Half-Empty?

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Tensions among states over how to prevent terrorism are evident, from the confusion over U.S. efforts to clamp down on migration to disputes between neighbors over border controls. But the will to cooperate remains strong. The challenges center around capabilities, and the ever-changing nature of the enemy.

Last Hope or Last Stop? Mexico’s Growing Migrant Crisis

By: Laura Weiss | Feature

A growing number of Central Americans fleeing violence in the Northern Triangle countries are now seeking asylum in Mexico, straining the country’s already-weak asylum system. As U.S. President Donald Trump’s hard-line immigration policies take shape, that burden is likely to deepen.

Macri’s Toughened Immigration Rules Evoke Trump and Risk Isolating Argentina

By: Patrick Corcoran | Briefing

Late last month, Argentina’s president, Mauricio Macri, announced new immigration rules that risk repudiating the country’s history and could presage a break with its neighbors. Though the measures are far from draconian and have public backing, they raise questions about the role Macri wants to play in Latin America.

The Lessons of the CIA’s War in Laos: An Interview With Joshua Kurlantzick

By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines

In his new book, Joshua Kurlantzick reframes the Laos war as the training ground for today’s CIA, which has led the shadow war against terrorism since 9/11. In an interview with WPR, Kurlantzick discussed his book and the lessons from the CIA’s war in Laos that can be applied today.

With an Eye to Untapped Potential, Israel and Japan Work to Expand Ties

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Earlier this month, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and visiting Israeli Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon signed an agreement that makes it easier for Japanese businesses to invest in Israeli cyber-technology firms. In an email interview, Emanuel Shahaf discusses Israel’s ties with Japan.

Why Chile’s Devastating Wildfires Could Determine Its Next President

By: Christopher Looft | Briefing

For the past three weeks, much of Chile was burning, as the worst wildfires in the country’s history raged out of control. But the fires also threaten to seal the troubled legacy of President Michelle Bachelet, whose poor handling of the crisis magnified several recent criticisms of her government.

Will the World Have to Learn to Live With the U.S. as a Failed State?

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

Is the U.S. a rogue state? Is it a failed or failing state? The answer, of course, is no. But the hyperbole is meant to underscore how each day of Donald Trump’s presidency brings us further into unimaginable territory. While uncertainty remains, there are already clear conclusions that can be drawn.

Can Somalia’s New President Fix Its Myriad Problems?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Earlier this month, Somalia’s parliament selected Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed to be president. Mohamed is popular among the army and is well-liked by the general public for his efforts to tackle corruption when he was prime minister. In an email interview, Ken Menkhaus discusses politics in Somalia.

Trump May Threaten a Trade War Over NAFTA, but His Options Are Limited

By: Edward Alden | Briefing

Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are eyeing U.S. President Donald Trump suspiciously over his criticisms of NAFTA and pledge to renegotiate the trade deal. Their suspicions run deep because neither Mexico nor Canada knows quite what Trump intends to do next.

As the U.S. Draws Down, Afghanistan Works to Build Its Air Force

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

A recent U.N. report found that civilian casualties in Afghanistan from Afghan-initiated airstrikes doubled between 2015 and 2016. The U.S. military contests the figures, but has begun training Afghan air controllers to limit collateral damage. In an email interview, Marc Schanz discusses Afghanistan’s air force.

Iran’s Elections Will Be a Referendum on Rouhani and the Nuclear Deal

By: Rouzbeh Parsi | Briefing

On May 19, Iranians will go to the polls to choose their president for the 12th time since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979. The elections will be a referendum on President Hassan Rouhani’s promise to open up Iran’s economy after the nuclear agreement that lifted international sanctions.

To Save Afghanistan, the United States Must Be Willing to Walk Away

By: Steven Metz | Column

The conflict in Afghanistan played a surprisingly small role in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, possibly because none of the candidates had any new ideas on what to do about this problem. While the war was not a major topic in Donald Trump’s successful presidential bid, he now must wrestle with it.

Why Trump’s Two-State ‘Reversal’ Could Lock In the Status Quo on Israel-Palestine

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took their budding “bromance” to the next level in a chummy press conference Wednesday. Observers were alarmed that Trump seemed to shrug off the two-state solution, but fears of a sea change in U.S. policy are overblown.

What Does the Populist Wave Mean for Global Aid and Development?

By: Sarah Hearn | Feature

Developing countries are assessing what the populist wave in the West will mean for them. The status quo for development was already unappealing, but a scenario in which rich countries make themselves fortresses exempt from a rules-based system would render developing countries losers in aid and trade.

Could Trump Succeed Where Chavez Failed and Unite Latin America Against the U.S.?

By: Christopher Sabatini | Briefing

Just when Latin America’s populists exhausted themselves, U.S. President Donald Trump came along, appearing to embrace many of their largely failed policies. Trump may succeed where former Venezuela President Hugo Chavez, failed—by uniting Latin America and the Caribbean against the United States.

NATO Is Obsolete. That Doesn’t Mean It’s Not Valuable

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

Recent assurances by Vice President Mike Pence to European allies about America’s commitment to NATO restored a semblance of normality to the alliance. European alarm over the prospect of U.S. abandonment, though, comes at a time when Europe is actually safer than it has ever been from the threats NATO can counter.