WPR Articles Jan. 3 — Jan. 11

An Open World Is in the Balance. What Might Replace the Liberal Order?

By: Stewart M. Patrick | Feature

Donald Trump’s election imperils the liberal world order that the U.S. has championed since World War II. That vision was already under strain, challenged by rivals and upheaval abroad. Can the liberal order survive this convergence of foreign and domestic assaults? If not, what will take its place?

Will Modi’s Demonetization Scheme Solve India’s Corruption Problem?

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

On the last day of 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a televised address on his controversial demonetization plan, which he said will rid India of its crippling corruption and bring more economic growth. Whether or not that is true will be one of the important questions facing India in 2017.

Why Defeating the Islamic State Won’t Be All Good News for the U.S.

By: Steven Metz | Column

The battlefield defeat of the self-styled Islamic State is far from certain but increasingly likely. Seeing the group driven out of Syria and Iraq would be good news in the U.S. and Europe but would not represent a decisive victory. U.S. policymakers must be sensitive to this as they craft a way forward.

The Double-Edged Sword of Tourism in Cuba

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

The growing number of tourists in Cuba is dramatically increasing the demand for food and leaving ordinary Cubans without many basic staples. In a phone interview, William LeoGrande, a professor of government at American University, discusses the positive and negative effects of tourism in Cuba.

As ISIS Struggles for Influence in Somalia, al-Shabab Remains the Main Threat

By: Joshua Meservey | Briefing

Talk of the Islamic State dominated much of the debate on counterterrorism issues during the U.S. presidential campaign. Yet as concerning as recent news about the Islamic State’s presence in Somalia is, the incoming Trump administration should not be distracted from the primary threat in Somalia, al-Shabab.

After the Fall of Aleppo, Turkey’s Erdogan Digs In His Heels Against Syria’s Kurds

By: Iyad Dakka | Briefing

There is no doubt that Turkey and the U.S. do not see eye to eye on Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has successfully turned a military defeat in Aleppo into a diplomatic pressure tactic against Washington, which Erdogan wants to back down on supporting Syrian Kurds in the fight against ISIS.

How the ‘Russia Threat’ Is Fueling Latvia’s Bitter Identity Politics

By: Matthew Luxmoore | Feature

Twenty-five years since it emerged from Soviet rule, Latvia struggles to forge a national identity—a task made more complex by its sizeable and unintegrated Russian community. Now a NATO and EU member, the Baltic country is bracing itself for a potential attack by an increasingly belligerent Russia.

Thinking Beyond Worst-Case Scenarios for 2017

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

The drama and disruptions of the past year fill some with dread for 2017. Without sounding too naïve, it’s possible to imagine outcomes that are not the worst-case scenarios for three of the world’s enduring problems: the European refugee crisis, the Syrian civil war and the Israel-Palestine conflict.

What’s Holding Nigeria’s Women Back?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In late December, Nigeria’s top Muslim cleric called on lawmakers to reject a bill currently under debate that would allow women the right to inherit family wealth and property, saying it goes against the teachings of the Quran. In an email interview, Ngozi Odiaka discusses women’s rights in Nigeria.

Can Russia Really Sideline the U.S. in the Latest Syria Peace Process?

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

If there is only one certainty about Syria’s civil war, it is that any ultimate resolution at this point will be horribly unsatisfying. But the current tenuous peace process negotiated and overseen by Russia, Turkey and Iran, despite all its many flaws, represents a lesser evil than continued fighting.

Turkey’s Government Shows Little Concern for Growing Income Inequality

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In 2000, the wealthiest 1 percent of Turks owned 38 percent of Turkey’s total wealth. Today, despite a decade and a half of solid economic growth, the top 1 percent controls around 55 percent of total wealth. In an email interview, Aysen Candas discusses the problem of income inequality in Turkey.

Why Once-Welcoming Countries in Scandinavia Closed Their Borders to Refugees

By: Rik Rutten | Briefing

For decades, Swedes have taken pride in providing a safe haven to the world’s huddled masses, and their country took in 163,000 refugees in 2015 alone. But times have changed. Like neighboring Denmark, Sweden now finds itself at the bottom of the European Union when it comes to welcoming refugees.

Don’t Expect a Thaw in Frosty Relations Between Sweden and Israel

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last month, Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom was denied an official visit to Israel, and Israeli officials refused to meet with her; a spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry said there were “scheduling problems.” In an email interview, Per Jönsson discusses Sweden’s ties with Israel.

Taking Stock of Progress, and Setbacks, in Central America’s Fight Against Corruption

By: Christine Wade | Briefing

The governments of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador in Central America’s so-called Northern Triangle have been under considerable domestic and international pressure to address rampant corruption since high-ranking officials were exposed in 2015. How did they fare in 2016, and what could 2017 hold?

Can Latvia Forge a Unified National Identity in the Shadow of Russia?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss the major priorities on the global agenda for 2017. For the Report, Matthew Luxmoore talks with Peter Dörrie about how the perceived threat from Russia is fueling tensions in Latvia.

Trump’s Real Challenge in the Middle East: Don’t Follow Russia and Iran

By: Jamsheed K. Choksy , Carol Choksy | Briefing

President-elect Donald Trump’s current defense priority—“to crush and destroy” ISIS—plays right into Russian and Iranian machinations in the Middle East, with selective definitions of terrorism and scorched-earth tactics. Under the rubric of fighting terrorism, it could spark more repression and violence.

Why Honduras Remains Latin America’s Most Unequal Country

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Honduras is the most unequal country in Latin America and the sixth most unequal in the world, according to World Bank statistics. More than 64 percent of Hondurans live in poverty, and 42 percent live in extreme poverty. In an email interview, Jake Johnston discusses income inequality in Honduras.

A Three-Step Plan for Guterres to ‘Trump-Proof’ the U.N.

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Antonio Guterres is off to a strong start as the new U.N. secretary-general. Yet, while U.N. officials are keen to see their boss succeed, all are conscious that his chances of leading the U.N. effectively over the next five years may be shaped by how he handles Donald Trump in the next few months.

Ghana’s Democracy Delivered. Can Its New President?

By: Alex Thurston | Briefing

On Jan. 7, opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo took office as the president of Ghana, a month after defeating incumbent President John Mahama in a smooth election that boosted Ghana’s democratic reputation. December’s vote represented an exception at a time of electoral turmoil in other parts of Africa.

Amicable Ties Between Argentina and Chile Warm Under Macri

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Chilean President Michelle Bachelet was in Argentina last month, where she gave her support to Argentina joining the Pacific Alliance. It was her first visit to Argentina since President Mauricio Macri assumed office in 2015. In an interview, Peter M. Siavelis discusses relations between Chile and Argentina.

How to Read the National Intelligence Council’s Latest Global Trends Report

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

This week, the NIC released its quadrennial report about global trends, and it’s a sober read. Governance is getting harder, and the nature of power is changing. Resilience will be key: Countries that invest in infrastructure, innovation and relationships will fare better in this unstable future.

Will Georgia Back Up Defense Reform Rhetoric With Action?

By: Michael Cecire | Briefing

In November, barely a month after the ruling Georgian Dream party’s win in parliamentary elections, Georgia’s defense minister outlined an ambitious reform program that captured headlines for reintroducing the draft. The reforms represent a technocratic turn for the often politically charged Defense Ministry.

Why Obama’s Foreign Policy Gamble Fell Short

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

The question that legitimately arises for defenders of President Barack Obama’s foreign policy of restraint is whether, in seeking to conserve American power, he has dangerously squandered the credibility upon which it is based. The question that arises for his critics is whether he had any choice.