WPR Articles Jan. 20 — Jan. 27

India’s Unique Brand of Populism Does Little to Tackle Inequality

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

A study by Oxfam found that inequality is on the rise in India, and that the richest 1 percent of Indians control 58 percent of the country’s total wealth. In an email interview, Vamsi Vakulabharanam, an associate professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, discusses income inequality in India.

Why Poland’s Authoritarian Drift Puts the EU Between a Rock and a Hard Place

By: Andrew MacDowall | Briefing

The Polish opposition’s month-long occupation of parliament may have ended earlier this month, but the deep political divisions behind Poland’s latest political crisis remain. Critics fear that Poland could plunge deeper into authoritarian nationalism or even worse, undermining the EU at a crucial time.

With an Eye on China—and Trump—Japan Enhances Security Ties With Southeast Asia

By: J. Berkshire Miller | Briefing

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s weeklong tour of Southeast Asia and Australia earlier this month was an opportunity to stress the importance of defending international norms and laws, especially in the South China Sea. The trip was planned in relative haste after Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president.

Was ECOWAS’ Intervention in Gambia a Sign of Things to Come in West Africa?

By: Alex Thurston | Briefing

Gambia’s new president, Adama Barrow, finally returned to the country yesterday, his arrival formally marking the end of a six-week political crisis. Do ECOWAS’ actions to intervene in Gambia show a growing willingness by the West African bloc to use force against leaders who overstay their welcome?

Brazil Needs to Pay More Than Just Lip Service to Women’s Rights

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

On New Year’s Eve, a man in southeastern Brazil shot and killed his ex-wife, their son and 10 other people, before taking his own life. The incident was the latest example of the rampant violence against women in Brazil. In an email interview, Sueann Caulfield discusses women’s rights in Brazil.

Despite a Robust Women’s Movement, Turkey Sees Gender Equality Lag

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called women who work “half persons,” sparking outrage among many liberal Turks, though his statement resonated with the country’s conservative majority. In an email interview, Melinda Negrón-Gonzales discusses women’s rights and gender equality in Turkey.

In Life and Death, Rafsanjani Will Leave a Lasting Imprint on Iran’s Politics

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy agenda. For the Report, Mohsen Milani talks about former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s lasting influence on Iranian politics.

Is Sudan Coming In From the Cold?

By: Andrew Green | Briefing

One of the more unexpected decisions to emerge in the waning days of Barack Obama’s presidency was his move last week to ease U.S. sanctions against Sudan that have been in place for nearly two decades. The move to open up Sudan’s economy might encourage the reforms that 20 years of sanctions have not.

Under Hollande, Old Ills Plague French Policy in Africa

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

Security has defined France’s Africa policy under President Francois Hollande, who was in Mali last week for the final Africa-France Summit of his presidency. But critics argue that Hollande’s militaristic approach distracted from the institution-building necessary for long-term African stability.

Which of America’s Adversaries Will Test Trump First?

By: Steven Metz | Column

America’s adversaries are almost certain to challenge President Donald Trump early on to test his inexperience in national security affairs. How he and his team respond will determine whether other adversaries mount challenges of their own. What is unclear is which of America’s adversaries will move first.

How a Conflict Economy Limits the Prospects for Peace in Central African Republic

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

According to Human Rights Watch, a new rebel group in the Central African Republic—known as Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation—has killed at least 50 people and displaced over 17,000 in the northwest of the country since late 2015. In an email interview, Igor Acko discusses the security situation in CAR.

Temer Has Few Easy Choices to Solve Brazil’s Prison Crisis

By: Christopher Looft | Briefing

Brazil’s president is having a kind of homecoming, but not the one he wanted. Michel Temer served in the 1980s as the top security official for the state of Sao Paulo, overseeing its prison system. He is now struggling to contain an unprecedented nationwide crisis in Brazil’s jails.

Will International Peacemaking Be the First Casualty of the Trump Era?

By: Richard Gowan | Column

What will international peacemaking look like in the Trump era? Five tentative but credible predictions paint a bleak picture. Though the U.S. has been edging back from its global peacemaker role for years, Donald Trump’s agenda will further damage institutions the U.S. built after 1945, starting with the U.N.

Globalization Was Already on the Ropes. It’s Only Going to Get Worse

By: Daniel McDowell | Feature

Since 2008, the world economy has been caught in a vicious cycle that it can’t seem to break. With Trump’s election and China’s economic slowdown, global economic interconnectedness continues to unravel. A trade war now looks more likely than ever, with disastrous implications for the world economy.

The Bureaucracy and the Trump Administration Are Already Off to a Rough Start

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Presidential transitions are always a time of apprehension and uncertainty for the career civil servants who keep the big machine of government running. President Donald Trump’s plans make this particular transition scarier than most. His performance at the CIA on Saturday, in particular, is an ominous sign.

‘America First’ Might Not Be Dangerous. Trump’s Version of It Is

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

With his inauguration address last Friday, President Donald Trump announced to Americans and the world that the “America First” era had arrived. But is this iconoclastic challenge to the U.S. foreign policy orthodoxy as alarming as it seems? How much does global stability still depend on the United States?

China’s Complicated Relationship With Workers’ Rights

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Labor organizations in China expect worker protests to spike in the coming weeks, in large part because workers from the “new economy,” which includes e-commerce, are experiencing problems with overdue payments for the first time. In an email interview, Cynthia Estlund discusses labor rights in China.

How the Israel Defense Forces Got Dragged Into Israel’s Culture Wars

By: Chuck Freilich | Briefing

Public support for the Israel Defense Forces has not prevented it from becoming an important locus of Israel’s domestic culture wars. The contending forces in Israeli society—right, left, religious and secular—seek to make use of the IDF’s unique role and prestige to promote their respective agendas.

Could Trump’s Hard-Line Support End Up Backfiring for Israel’s Far Right?

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Most Middle East observers believe that Donald Trump’s presidency will boost the Israeli right, dealing a blow to the center and left, and worsening relations with Palestinians. While that consensus scenario remains highly probable, a sharply different possible turn of events should not be discounted.

A Strategic Surprise for the Trump Administration Is a Question of When, Not If

By: Steven Metz | Column

If history holds, the U.S. will be drawn into conflict somewhere that was never mentioned during the 2016 presidential campaign. In strategy, unexpected threats are the norm, and there is no reason to believe this will not continue to be the case. Looking ahead, two types of security challenges stand out.

For Better Civil-Military Ties, Indonesia Needs to Prioritize Defense Reform

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Earlier this month, Indonesia’s military chief unilaterally suspended defense ties with Australia, forcing President Joko Widodo to quickly walk back the move and raising questions about the amount of power the military has. In an interview, Fabio Scarpello discusses civil-military relations in Indonesia.

The Slow and Steady Decline of Globalism

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss the global reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump’s first week in office. For the Report, Daniel McDowell talks with Peter Dörrie about the growing problems facing globalism.

Why India and the United Arab Emirates Are Moving Closer Together

By: Saurav Jha | Briefing

Afghan authorities blamed a bombing this month in Kandahar that killed five Emirati diplomats on the Haqqani network, which many suspect of having ties to Pakistani intelligence. That triggered speculation that the attack was a message to the UAE about its growing counterterrorism ties with India.