WPR Articles Jan. 10 — Jan. 18

Trump Wants to Break the EU. Will He Instead End Up Being Its Savior?

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

Just when it seemed like the EU’s troubles couldn’t get any worse, Donald Trump rubbed salt in its wounds last week in an interview, lauding Brexit, disparaging German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and deriding the EU as a vehicle for German economic domination. But could Trump end up being the EU’s savior?

How Rafsanjani Became the Pragmatic Voice of Iran’s Revolution

By: Mohsen Milani | Feature

Iran’s late Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani left a powerful but mixed legacy. During his career he justified repression and catered to extremists, but was also often a voice of moderation. His death comes at a critical juncture in Iranian politics, leaving an uncertain fate for reform.

Embattled Venezuela Can Still Count on International Lifelines, From Russia to China

By: Timothy Gill | Briefing

Venezuelans endured a particularly difficult year in 2016, from skyrocketing inflation to a plummeting currency. The year offered little respite for President Nicolas Maduro, too, at home and abroad. But the Venezuelan government is far from isolated, and Maduro can still rely on support from key partners.

Can Cote d’Ivoire Keep Its Soldiers in the Barracks?

By: Robbie Corey-Boulet | Briefing

Last week, Cote d’Ivoire’s government and soldiers who had mutinied claimed to have reached a deal to end their standoff. The mutiny proved that, six years after the creation of a new Ivoirian army amid post-election violence, the goal of a cohesive and disciplined fighting force is still far from reality.

Lebanon’s Sectarian Political Structure Hurts the Fight for Women’s Rights

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

A parliamentary committee in Lebanon recently recommended striking down a law that allows rapists’ sentences to be reduced if they marry their victims, but it will take months for parliament to consider the recommendation. In an email interview, Zeina Zaatari discusses women’s rights in Lebanon.

Amicable Ties Between Argentina and Chile Warm Under Macri

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Chilean President Michelle Bachelet was in Argentina last month, where she gave her support to Argentina joining the Pacific Alliance. It was her first visit to Argentina since President Mauricio Macri assumed office in 2015. In an interview, Peter M. Siavelis discusses relations between Chile and Argentina.

An Open World Is in the Balance. What Might Replace the Liberal Order?

By: Stewart M. Patrick | Feature

Donald Trump’s election imperils the liberal world order that the U.S. has championed since World War II. That vision was already under strain, challenged by rivals and upheaval abroad. Can the liberal order survive this convergence of foreign and domestic assaults? If not, what will take its place?

How to Read the National Intelligence Council’s Latest Global Trends Report

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

This week, the NIC released its quadrennial report about global trends, and it’s a sober read. Governance is getting harder, and the nature of power is changing. Resilience will be key: Countries that invest in infrastructure, innovation and relationships will fare better in this unstable future.

Will Georgia Back Up Defense Reform Rhetoric With Action?

By: Michael Cecire | Briefing

In November, barely a month after the ruling Georgian Dream party’s win in parliamentary elections, Georgia’s defense minister outlined an ambitious reform program that captured headlines for reintroducing the draft. The reforms represent a technocratic turn for the often politically charged Defense Ministry.

As ISIS Struggles for Influence in Somalia, al-Shabab Remains the Main Threat

By: Joshua Meservey | Briefing

Talk of the Islamic State dominated much of the debate on counterterrorism issues during the U.S. presidential campaign. Yet as concerning as recent news about the Islamic State’s presence in Somalia is, the incoming Trump administration should not be distracted from the primary threat in Somalia, al-Shabab.

Why Obama’s Foreign Policy Gamble Fell Short

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

The question that legitimately arises for defenders of President Barack Obama’s foreign policy of restraint is whether, in seeking to conserve American power, he has dangerously squandered the credibility upon which it is based. The question that arises for his critics is whether he had any choice.

U.S. Native Communities See Their Influence Grow on Local and National Stage

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has temporarily stopped work on the Dakota Access Pipeline that was planned to go through the Standing Rock Indian Reservation, but hundreds of protesters are still at the camp in North Dakota. In an email interview, Ron Whitener discusses Native American rights in the U.S.

With New Vice President, Venezuela’s Crisis Takes a Troubling Turn

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Venezuela’s crisis just became more complicated for the country’s political opposition and more unsettling for the U.S. On Jan. 4, President Nicolas Maduro named Tareck El Aissami as vice president, a man who has reportedly helped forge back-channel links for Caracas to terrorists and drug traffickers.

Declining Income Inequality Masks Sierra Leone’s Slow Economic Growth

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

With general elections due to be held by 2018, Sierra Leone’s opposition parties have been criticizing the ruling All People’s Congress party for its handling of the country’s poverty and crime issues. In an email interview, Tristan Reed discusses poverty and income inequality in Sierra Leone.

Is Jordan Winning Its Battle Against Domestic Extremism?

By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines

Last month’s terrorist attack in southern Jordan, which the Islamic State claimed responsibility for, was a brutal reminder of the kingdom’s fragile security situation. For all the worries about homegrown extremism in Jordan, though, the attack revealed its opposite: popular rejection of the Islamic State.

Once a Caribbean Success Story, Trinidad and Tobago Faces an Uncertain Future

By: Robert Looney | Briefing

Resource booms and busts are a sad reality for most commodity-based developing countries, and Trinidad and Tobago is no exception. The wealthiest of the Caribbean economies, thanks to its oil and gas resources, is currently mired in a severe recession after the collapse of world oil prices.

The National Intelligence Council Paints a Grim Future of ‘Disruption’

By: Steven Metz | Column

In the NIC’s latest long-term forecast, which catalogues an array of political, economic, demographic and technological trends, a single keyword occurs over and over: disruption. In a very broad sense, the futurists in the U.S. intelligence community believe the world has entered an age of disruption.

The Rise and Potential Fall of the Liberal International Order

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss President Barack Obama’s foreign policy legacy. For the Report, Patrick M. Stewart talks to Peter Dörrie about the prospects of the liberal world order and what might replace it.

Economic and Security Issues Sideline Women’s Rights in Egypt

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

An Egyptian court recently upheld a decision to freeze the assets of three women’s rights activists. The three are charged, along with five others, of using illegally obtained foreign funds to “destabilize Egypt.” In an email interview, Marwa Shalaby discusses women’s rights and gender equality in Egypt.

On Iran, Can Trump Make the Transition From Campaign Rhetoric to Policy?

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

When it comes to Iran, as on other issues, the views of Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees do not suggest an easy consensus about how to transition from the president-elect’s brash campaign promises—to cancel the Iran nuclear agreement, for example—to the messy world of less-than-ideal policy options.

Mexico Faces a Crucial Year as Trump and Domestic Pressures Converge

By: Paul Imison | Briefing

Amid U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threats on trade and immigration with Mexico, deeply unpopular Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto faces social unrest and a potential recession ahead of a presidential election in 2018, when another populist underdog will look to capitalize on public anger.