Russia is Learning About Hezbollah
Hezbollah
and Russia have enjoyed close cooperation in Syria, but their military
successes could undermine Hezbollah’s hopes of playing a major role in
the country post-conflict.
Hezbollah
has been a useful non-state partner to Russian forces in Syria. The
Lebanese Shia militia and Iranian proxy currently fields
between 6,000 and 8,000 fighters in that country’s civil war, with some estimates as
high as 10,000. Having suffered roughly
2,000 deaths and over
5,000 injured
since their involvement in the conflict, Hezbollah has continued to be a
stalwart ally of the Assad regime, fighting as far away as
Deir ez-Zor. Since September 2015 this has included
working closely
with the Russian military, which intervened in an apparently effective
attempt to save the Assad regime. Hezbollah’s success on the ground in
Syria has been noted by Moscow, which views it as a capable ally that
has strongly contributed to the survival of the Syrian government. But
as the regime’s fortunes improve, Russia is signaling its willingness to
rebels and their foreign backers to find a negotiated solution to the
conflict, calculating that the regime’s current ascendancy will give it
more leverage at the negotiating table to secure a favorable deal. Yet
in the long term this solution may also limit Hezbollah’s influence in a
post-conflict Syria.
http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/index.cfm?fa=67651&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVRaaU0ySXpNMkU1TnpZMiIsInQiOiJHeEYwekR3aG9DR1dYTnNEWk5ac0tKbGk2dFdKQjByWW9cL2RvZHNkWnRrTjNTRG5kNkdYSzBzNVljeFwvMkVsdFdRc1ZWWmxzSDZIbnVkbHpaWTl4SjBHM1l3UE5GeXpsbk10eFJXMjFraHBYZElJYzRWU0lNcVJrMnNoVTBtVlwvRCJ9
No comments:
Post a Comment