WPR Articles Oct. 18 — Oct. 26

Populism’s Rise and the Fate of the Global Middle Class

By: Lauren M. Phillips | Briefing

Renewed criticism of free trade is easier to understand when looking at recent data about the winners and losers of globalization from the 1990s until the financial crisis. But what accounts for the broader appeal of populist parties that are against globalization among a much larger section of the electorate?

What Would Victory in Mosul Mean for Iraq’s Neighbors?

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

The outcome of the battle for Mosul will not transform the region but will more likely reinforce current geopolitical rivalries and realities. Some incremental progress in stabilizing Iraq and promoting reconciliation between Baghdad and the country’s Sunni regions would be the most to hope for.

Why Africa’s ‘Presidents for Life’ Are So Afraid to Lose Power

By: Rudy Massamba | Briefing

Protesters in the DRC are running out of patience with President Joseph Kabila, who is still trying to amend the constitution and run for a third term. Resistance to democratic transfers of power is a trend throughout Central and West Africa, for several underlying economic and structural reasons.

After Abortion Law Protest, What Stands in the Way of Gender Equality in Poland?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

On Oct. 3, women in Poland staged a strike to protest a proposed law that would have criminalized all abortions, including in instances of rape or incest. Days later, lawmakers voted down the bill in parliament. In an email interview, Malgorzata Druciarek discusses women’s rights in Poland.

Why Indonesia’s Apparent Stability Under Jokowi Is a Sign of Its Stagnation

By: Jon Emont | Briefing

Political stability is usually a good thing in Indonesia, especially when compared with the uncertainty gripping the rest of Southeast Asia. But the small scale of Jokowi’s reforms in his first two years as president suggests he has compromised his governing ambitions in order to gain elite backing.

Are Bolivia’s Angry Miners Harbingers of More Trouble to Come for Morales?

By: Eric Farnsworth | Briefing

Bolivia was shaken in late August when its deputy interior minister was killed by striking miners. The government responded by hardening its position, and its interest in compromising with the politically important sector has seemingly been reduced, with implications for the country’s stability.

As the Bouteflika Era Ends, Crisis or Continuity for Algeria?

By: Vish Sakthivel | Feature

Facing economic and political crises, Algeria seems to be teetering on the edge of instability. However, in each area of potential hazard, a combination of historical memory, public apathy and meticulously managed government affairs, for better or worse, indicate stability for the current system.

Indigenous Rights Set to Return to the National Agenda in Mexico

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

The Zapatista Army of National Liberation said that it will choose an indigenous woman to run as an independent candidate in Mexico’s 2018 presidential election, marking a return to political life for the guerrilla group. In an email interview, Michael Danielson discusses indigenous rights in Mexico.

What Comes After Liberating Mosul From ISIS Will Determine Iraq’s Future

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

The recapture of Mosul from the Islamic State holds the promise of improving some of Iraq’s most troubling trends. How the U.S. manages the complex politics of the anti-ISIS coalition, and how Baghdad handles Sunni-Shiite reconciliation, will be critical to shaping the aftermath of military success.

Cape Verde Maintains Its Reputation for Stability With Fonseca’s Re-Election

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

On Oct. 2, Cape Verde’s president, Jorge Carlos Fonseca, easily won re-election, an unsurprising result given victories by his party, the Movement for Democracy, in legislative and municipal elections earlier this year. In an email interview, Lydia Beuman discusses politics in Cape Verde.

Cote d’Ivoire’s New Constitution Could Bring Tensions, Rather Than Reconciliation

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

Last week, Cote d’Ivoire’s parliament approved the draft of a new constitution that lifts the restriction on presidential candidates with dual nationality. But the country’s opposition forces have denounced the opaque drafting process and have called for protests and a boycott of the referendum.

The Decline of the BRICS Is Proof of America’s Resilience in a Multipolar World

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

The most newsworthy thing about last weekend’s BRICS summit was its lack of newsworthiness. As a coherent political bloc, the BRICS was always overblown. Now it seems it has already blown over, underscoring the resilience of America’s global role and position in an increasingly multipolar world.

Why the U.S. Should Prioritize Iraq and UAE Ties Over Egypt and Saudi Arabia

By: Michael Hanna | Briefing

President Barack Obama’s second term has illuminated the dysfunctional nature of some close U.S. relationships in the Arab world, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The U.S. should diversify its regional policies and deepen ties with more willing partners, specifically Iraq and the United Arab Emirates.

Merkel Stakes Out Germany’s Position as a Democracy Advocate in Africa

By: Alex Thurston | Briefing

German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Mali, Niger and Ethiopia last week, with security, migration and democratization on her agenda. She was notably blunter about Ethiopia’s authoritarianism than the U.S. has been, suggesting Germany’s potential as a mediator and advocate for political rights in Africa.

Pirate Party Set to Capitalize On Anti-Establishment Sentiment in Iceland’s Elections

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Recent polls ahead of Iceland’s parliamentary election on Oct. 29 show the anti-establishment Pirate Party polling consistently around 20 percent, likely putting it in a position to form Iceland’s next government. In an email interview, Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson discusses Iceland’s politics.

With the Islamic State on the Ropes in Mosul, Al-Qaida Makes a Comeback

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

The offensive to retake Mosul marks a turning point in efforts to defeat the Islamic State, which has lost as much as 90 percent of the territory it held at the height of its power. Unfortunately, the group’s decline has provided an opening for its principal rival, al-Qaida, to revive its brand.

Despite All the Makings of Crisis, Algeria Continues to Prioritize Political Stability

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s Judah Grunstein and Frederick Deknatel discuss Africa’s presidents for life, U.S. ties with the Arab world, and political stagnation in Indonesia. For the Report, Vish Sakthivel talks with Peter Dörrie about the end of the Bouteflika era in Algeria.

Will the Battle for Mosul Validate Obama’s Counter-Extremism Strategy?

By: Steven Metz | Column

The U.S. has a major stake in the outcome of the battle for Mosul. U.S. military support was vital to rejuvenating Iraq’s security forces, and over 5,000 U.S. troops are supporting the offensive. Mosul will help determine whether Barack Obama’s approach to counter-extremism becomes a model or a warning.

International Outrage Won’t Change Russia’s Behavior in Aleppo

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Does Moscow care at all about international declarations of outrage over its behavior in Syria? Could threats of legal action against Russian officers involved in the siege of Aleppo affect their decisions? Aleppo may in fact exacerbate splits between Western and non-Western powers over international justice.

Magufuli’s Reformist Drive Takes an Autocratic Turn in Tanzania

By: Michael Jennings | Briefing

After winning elections a year ago, Tanzania’s new president, John Magufuli, quickly lived up to his nickname, “the Bulldozer.” He launched investigations against corruption and sought to introduce a note of austerity within government. Yet a year later, he stands accused of an autocratic turn.

Paraguay Recognizes Indigenous Rights but Ignores Laws That Defend Them

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last month, police forcibly evicted indigenous Ava Guarani people from their native land in eastern Paraguay, demolishing houses, schools, places of worship and crops. In an email interview, René Harder Horst, a history professor at Appalachian State University, discusses indigenous rights in Paraguay.

Brazil Works to Make Its Space Program Self-Sufficient

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Brazil’s space agency recently announced plans to develop a microsatellite launch vehicle that would take satellites weighing up to 1 kilogram into orbit. The first test launch is scheduled for late 2018. In an email interview, Valdosta State University’s Robert Harding discusses Brazil’s space program.

From Drought to Green Revolution? Malawi’s—and Africa’s—Quest for Food Security

By: Jonathan W. Rosen | Feature

Hit by the strongest El Nino in a generation, Malawi is in a crisis. A massive deficit of its stable crop, maize, has puts millions at risk of acute food shortages. But some organizations are developing new strategies to change food and agriculture practices, in hope of a more sustainable future.

What Will It Take To Get Troubled India-Pakistan Ties Back on Track?

By: Michael Kugelman | Briefing

Not long ago, India and Pakistan appeared to be on a war footing after 19 Indian solders were killed in a September terrorist attack on a base in Kashmir. There’s been no all-out war, but relations remains in a deep crisis and are likely to suffer through a long, ugly low before they bounce back.

Would Clinton Be More Equipped to Deal With Global Disorder Than Obama?

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

If Hillary Clinton is elected the next U.S. president, it will be a relief to the many observers who viewed the inflammatory amateurism of Republican nominee Donald Trump with alarm. But she will take office at a time when many troubling global trends appear to have suddenly worsened all at once.