WPR Articles Oct. 14 — Oct. 21

Will the Battle for Mosul Validate Obama’s Counter-Extremism Strategy?

By: Steven Metz | Column

The U.S. has a major stake in the outcome of the battle for Mosul. U.S. military support was vital to rejuvenating Iraq’s security forces, and over 5,000 U.S. troops are supporting the offensive. Mosul will help determine whether Barack Obama’s approach to counter-extremism becomes a model or a warning.

Merkel Stakes Out Germany’s Position as a Democracy Advocate in Africa

By: Alex Thurston | Briefing

German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Mali, Niger and Ethiopia last week, with security, migration and democratization on her agenda. She was notably blunter about Ethiopia’s authoritarianism than the U.S. has been, suggesting Germany’s potential as a mediator and advocate for political rights in Africa.

The Decline of the BRICS Is Proof of America’s Resilience in a Multipolar World

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

The most newsworthy thing about last weekend’s BRICS summit was its lack of newsworthiness. As a coherent political bloc, the BRICS was always overblown. Now it seems it has already blown over, underscoring the resilience of America’s global role and position in an increasingly multipolar world.

Indigenous Rights Set to Return to the National Agenda in Mexico

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

The Zapatista Army of National Liberation said that it will choose an indigenous woman to run as an independent candidate in Mexico’s 2018 presidential election, marking a return to political life for the guerrilla group. In an email interview, Michael Danielson discusses indigenous rights in Mexico.

Cote d’Ivoire’s New Constitution Could Bring Tensions, Rather Than Reconciliation

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

Last week, Cote d’Ivoire’s parliament approved the draft of a new constitution that lifts the restriction on presidential candidates with dual nationality. But the country’s opposition forces have denounced the opaque drafting process and have called for protests and a boycott of the referendum.

Dysfunction Between the White House and Congress Is a Feature, Not a Bug

By: Steven Metz | Column

If the Democrats take the White House and one or both houses of Congress, it might seem to open a path to repairing the relationship between the executive and legislative branches. Yet reality is not so simple. The dysfunctional relationship between the two branches is ingrained and structural.

Globalization Isn’t to Blame for Americans’ Anti-Trade Sentiment. Trump Is

By: Daniel McDowell | Briefing

The conventional wisdom has the link between Donald Trump and rising anti-trade views in the U.S. backward. The distributional consequences of globalization are not driving protectionist attitudes in the U.S.; Trump is. But how durable are the views that Trump’s rhetoric has cultivated?

The Limits of the ICC Ruling on Cultural Destruction as a War Crime

By: Sophie Rosenberg | Briefing

Last month, the International Criminal Court issued a landmark ruling on the destruction of cultural heritage as a war crime, sentencing a member of a jihadist group to nine years in prison for smashing mausoleums in Timbuktu. Though an important legal precedent, the verdict was more of a symbolic victory.

What’s at Stake in Ghana’s Election?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and host Peter Dörrie discuss Belarus’ opening to the West, transitional justice in Burkina Faso, and Peru’s prospects for modernizing. For the Report, Dorina Bekoe joins us to talk about the run-up to Ghana’s presidential election.

Will Tensions Over Syria Derail France and Russia’s Long-Term Relations?

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

Russia’s role in the Syrian conflict continues to damage its relations with the West, as the Moscow-backed Syrian offensive on Aleppo shows no signs of abating. On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin canceled a planned visit to Paris after Francois Hollande called Russian airstrikes in Syria “war crimes.”

Has Obama’s Pivot to Asia Been a Success or Failure?

By: David Hutt | Briefing

September revealed the limits of U.S. President Barack Obama’s engagement in Asia. He made his final tour of Asia as president, which offered an opportunity to review the success of his administration’s so-called pivot to the region, or rebalance. The results have been decidedly mixed.

Will a President Clinton Clash With the U.N. Over Syria?

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Are Antonio Guterres and Hillary Clinton on course for a clash over Syria in early 2017? If Clinton wins the U.S. presidency and follows through on promises to take a tougher stand with Russia on Syria, it would complicate the new U.N. chief’s efforts to pursue a diplomatic “surge” to resolve the conflict.

Are Bolivia’s Angry Miners Harbingers of More Trouble to Come for Morales?

By: Eric Farnsworth | Briefing

Bolivia was shaken in late August when its deputy interior minister was killed by striking miners. The government responded by hardening its position, and its interest in compromising with the politically important sector has seemingly been reduced, with implications for the country’s stability.

As the Bouteflika Era Ends, Crisis or Continuity for Algeria?

By: Vish Sakthivel | Feature

Facing economic and political crises, Algeria seems to be teetering on the edge of instability. However, in each area of potential hazard, a combination of historical memory, public apathy and meticulously managed government affairs, for better or worse, indicate stability for the current system.

What Comes After Liberating Mosul From ISIS Will Determine Iraq’s Future

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

The recapture of Mosul from the Islamic State holds the promise of improving some of Iraq’s most troubling trends. How the U.S. manages the complex politics of the anti-ISIS coalition, and how Baghdad handles Sunni-Shiite reconciliation, will be critical to shaping the aftermath of military success.

Cape Verde Maintains Its Reputation for Stability With Fonseca’s Re-Election

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

On Oct. 2, Cape Verde’s president, Jorge Carlos Fonseca, easily won re-election, an unsurprising result given victories by his party, the Movement for Democracy, in legislative and municipal elections earlier this year. In an email interview, Lydia Beuman discusses politics in Cape Verde.

Why the U.S. Should Prioritize Iraq and UAE Ties Over Egypt and Saudi Arabia

By: Michael Hanna | Briefing

President Barack Obama’s second term has illuminated the dysfunctional nature of some close U.S. relationships in the Arab world, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The U.S. should diversify its regional policies and deepen ties with more willing partners, specifically Iraq and the United Arab Emirates.

Pirate Party Set to Capitalize On Anti-Establishment Sentiment in Iceland’s Elections

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Recent polls ahead of Iceland’s parliamentary election on Oct. 29 show the anti-establishment Pirate Party polling consistently around 20 percent, likely putting it in a position to form Iceland’s next government. In an email interview, Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson discusses Iceland’s politics.

Why Africa’s ‘Presidents for Life’ Are So Afraid to Lose Power

By: Rudy Massamba | Briefing

Protesters in the DRC are running out of patience with President Joseph Kabila, who is still trying to amend the constitution and run for a third term. Resistance to democratic transfers of power is a trend throughout Central and West Africa, for several underlying economic and structural reasons.

With the Islamic State on the Ropes in Mosul, Al-Qaida Makes a Comeback

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

The offensive to retake Mosul marks a turning point in efforts to defeat the Islamic State, which has lost as much as 90 percent of the territory it held at the height of its power. Unfortunately, the group’s decline has provided an opening for its principal rival, al-Qaida, to revive its brand.

Despite All the Makings of Crisis, Algeria Continues to Prioritize Political Stability

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s Judah Grunstein and Frederick Deknatel discuss Africa’s presidents for life, U.S. ties with the Arab world, and political stagnation in Indonesia. For the Report, Vish Sakthivel talks with Peter Dörrie about the end of the Bouteflika era in Algeria.

Why Indonesia’s Apparent Stability Under Jokowi Is a Sign of Its Stagnation

By: Jon Emont | Briefing

Political stability is usually a good thing in Indonesia, especially when compared with the uncertainty gripping the rest of Southeast Asia. But the small scale of Jokowi’s reforms in his first two years as president suggests he has compromised his governing ambitions in order to gain elite backing.