WPR Articles June 27 — July 1

Post-Fukushima, Japan Faces Bigger Hurdles to Combat Climate Change

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Japan announced earlier this year that it had been successful at cutting its carbon dioxide emissions by 3 percent—the first time emissions have decreased since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. In an email interview, Aiko Shmizu discussed Japan’s contribution and response to climate change.

Caribbean Regionalism Set to Suffer Under New St. Lucia Leadership

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

St. Lucia went to the polls earlier this month, with the conservative United Workers Party, led by Allen Chastanet, beating the incumbent Labour Party on a platform of tax cuts and economic growth. In an email interview, Tennyson Joseph discussed the elections and the state of politics in St. Lucia.

Erdogan and Military Both Seek Political Gains in Turkey’s War Against the PKK

By: Iyad Dakka | Briefing

The escalating violence of Turkey’s war against the PKK has led some to begin speaking of the “Syrianization” of the country’s southeastern region. But there are important political dividends to be won, something both President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Turkish military recognize clearly.

Rajoy Likely to Benefit From Spain’s Continued Political Deadlock

By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines

Spain held its second general election in six months on Sunday, but the results didn’t move the needle much from December’s vote. Once again, the country faces the prospect of continued political deadlock if acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is unable form a viable governing coalition.

Why the U.S. Military Must Get Creative About War Games—and How It Can

By: Steven Metz | Column

Exploring ways to identify possible futures demands creativity, but that is often rare in large, bureaucratic organizations like the military. To get around this, the U.S. military relies on collective creativity. One of the most important methods for this is the use of analytical war games.

Brexit Makes Early Warning on International Crises Even More Imperative

By: Richard Gowan | Column

A major crisis in the international system is often followed by a host of smaller crises. In the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, major powers and international organizations need to make a priority of early warning mechanisms for such crises as well as diplomatic engagement to handle them.

Gulf Geopolitics Drive, and Shield, Bahrain’s Crackdown on Shiites

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

Last week, authorities in Bahrain stripped Sheikh Isa Qassim, the country’s most prominent Shiite cleric, of his citizenship. The move was just the latest in an ongoing crackdown on the largely Shiite opposition. Bahrain’s straitjacket on dissent is nothing new, but it has visibly tightened recently.

South China Sea Spat a Symptom of U.S.-China Jockeying for Advantage

By: Timothy R. Heath | Briefing

Maritime tensions in the South China Sea stand out as the most prominent of a set of disputes between China and the United States. Underpinning these various issues lays an intensifying strategic competition, even as both countries face constraints against pursuing a destructive confrontation.

Brexit’s Ripple Effects Will Reach the Middle East, Too

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

The outcome of the Brexit referendum is bad news for the Middle East region on a number of scores, in particular what it says about Western attitudes toward migrants and Muslims, and about loss of support for economic integration, a big idea that would improve prospects for the Arab world.

The Grass-Roots Efforts That Will Help Nairobi Urbanize Quickly—and Well

By: Abigail Higgins | Feature

With Nairobi’s slums, trash heaps and poor infrastructure, the growing city reveals the consequences of a global shift toward urbanization, and the risks of being ill-equipped to make important structural changes to facilitate a rising population. Some promising projects, however, are underway.

The UAE’s Yemen Pivot Could Make Differences With Riyadh Unbridgeable

By: Peter Salisbury | Briefing

In recent remarks declaring an end to UAE combat operations in Yemen, a high-ranking UAE official may have revealed something many analysts have suspected for some time: that the UAE is no longer involved in the battle for northwest Yemen, but is instead focused on securing the south of the country.

India Seeks to Capitalize on Its Recent Space Success

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last week, India successfully launched 20 satellites in a single mission, a major success for the Indian Space Research Organization that positions India as a key player in the international commercial space market. In an email interview, Joan Johnson-Freese discusses India’s space program.

Memo to U.S. Pundits: Stop Looking for the Brexit Culprit in Washington

By: Michael A. Cohen | Column

In the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, the debate among U.S. foreign policy pundits has taken a predictable turn: looking for who is to blame. Not surprisingly, if you are familiar with U.S. foreign policy punditry, the culprit is to be found, not in London or Brussels, but in Washington.

The Hidden Factors Behind Resurging Violence in Mexico

By: Benoît Gomis | Briefing

The leaders of Mexico, Canada and the U.S. meet today for the final so-called Three Amigos summit of Barack Obama’s presidency. While other issues will be high on the agenda, so too will the longstanding problem of violence associated with transnational drug trafficking, particularly in Mexico.

After Return of Political Violence, Can Mozambique Regain Post-War Stability?

By: Charles Pembroke | Briefing

Dialogue between the government of Mozambique and the Renamo opposition advanced this week, with the ruling Frelimo party naming its final negotiating team. But the opening of talks are just an initial step in the peace process, which will likely be subject to fraught and protracted negotiations.

In Dealing a Blow Against Globalization, Brexit Highlights Interconnectedness

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

The reverberations from the Brexit referendum extend far beyond the U.K. If resentment over the impact of globalization was one of the motivating forces behind the voters’ decision, the global extent of the decision’s impact offers proof of just how irretrievably interconnected the world has grown.

Can Nairobi’s Citizens Tackle Their City’s Rapid Urbanization?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and host Peter Dörrie discuss the backlash against liberalized trade in the context of the Brexit vote. For the Report, Abigail Higgins talks about the challenges of Nairobi’s rapid urbanization.

Geo-Economics Moves Front and Center as Connectivity Reshuffles Global Politics

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Briefing

Globalization has created new connections between states while simultaneously opening up divides within them. Forging, or forcing, economic connectivity is the driving force for international politics in the 21st century, and geo-economics is the framework through which it can be best understood.