WPR Articles July 7 — July 13
Why Does Progress Against ISIS in Iraq and Syria Feel Like Defeat?
By: Clint Watts | Briefing
The U.S.-led coalition’s
squeeze on the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has led to bloodletting
elsewhere, with terrorist violence on an unprecedented scale. The
coalition’s hard-fought campaign, which has slowly rolled back the
Islamic State, hasn’t quelled the perception that the group is winning.
Understanding Tribunal’s Rejection of Beijing’s South China Sea Claims
By: The Editors | Trend Lines
In a landmark ruling
Tuesday, an international tribunal in The Hague rejected China’s
extensive claims to sovereignty over the waters of the South China Sea,
saying they had no legal basis. WPR is making available essential
background reading on the South China Sea disputes, free for
non-subscribers.
State Capitalism and the Return of Economic Interventionism
By: Joshua Kurlantzick | Feature
State capitalism has
grown over the past two decades, with implications for governance,
political freedom and the global economy. Particularly in the developing
world, many governments are increasing their intervention in their
economies. But there are major risks inherent to this trend.
A Reluctant China May Be the Last Hope for South Sudan
By: Richard Gowan | Column
Can anyone save South
Sudan? The country, which collapsed into civil war in 2013, is stumbling
into a new cycle of violence. Clashes in Juba have claimed over 200
lives in recent days. The fighting poses an especially serious dilemma
for a reluctant power with significant interests at stake: China.
Turkey and Iraq Illustrate Two Sides of the Middle East’s Strongman Problem
By: Ellen Laipson | Column
The Middle East has a
long history of authoritarianism, and the legacy of that history is
illustrated in contrasting ways by two key states in the region: Turkey
and Iraq. The U.S. has some leverage to push both states to strike the
right balance between too little or too much power at the top.
Despite Long Odds, Syria’s Kurds Push Forward With Their State-Building Project
By: Frida Ghitis | Column
World powers and Middle
East regional players continue to strain without success in efforts to
wind down the war in Syria and contain its expanding terrorist
spillover. But Syrian Kurdish political leaders are moving ahead with
state-building plans of their own, undeterred by their critics.
Election Deadlock Caps the Steady Decline of Australia’s Two Main Parties
By: Sam Roggeveen | Briefing
Australia’s recent
national elections have still yet to be decided. But the fact that
Australia might have its second minority government in a decade hints at
an underlying trend that is reshaping politics in ways that are less
obvious than Donald Trump or Brexit, but potentially just as profound.
Political Realities Leave Iran’s Kurds Divided, Weak and Ineffective
By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Iran’s Revolutionary
Guards Corps and Kurdish rebels from the Kurdish Democratic Party of
Iran clashed late last month along Iran’s mountainous border with Iraq.
In an email interview, Denise Natali discusses the relationship between
the Iranian government and the Iranian Kurdish minority.
Australia Takes Steps to Prioritize and Expand Ties With Indonesia
By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Last month, officials
from Indonesia and Australia agreed to increase counterterrorism
cooperation and information-sharing in response to the growing threat
from the so-called Islamic State. In an email interview, Greta
Nabbs-Keller discusses the current state of Australia-Indonesia
relations.
Can Mogherini Turn the EU’s Diplomatic Service Around?
By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines
Recent high-level
resignations in the European External Action Service prompted rumors
that all is not well at the EU’s diplomatic service. But a closer look
shows that EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini is gaining
confidence in her role and finally taking charge of the foreign service.
Human Rights Should Be at the Top of NATO’s Summit Agenda in Warsaw
By: Anna Neistat | Briefing
NATO leaders meet for
their summit in Warsaw buffeted by crises and conflicts on all sides.
Many of them could have been averted. Much of the current instability
stems from the failure to adequately respond to human rights violations,
especially if other political or economic interests are at stake.
New Approaches to Preparing for and Recovering From Natural Disasters
By: The Editors | Trend Lines
In this week’s Trend
Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and host Peter
Dörrie discuss the challenges of building sustainable peace in former
conflict zones. For the Report, Ilan Noy joins us to talk about new
approaches to preparing for and recovering from natural disasters.
To Defeat an Evolving ISIS, the U.S. and Its Allies Must Adapt
By: Steven Metz | Column
However sound the
U.S.-led coalition’s strategy has been in rolling back the Islamic
State’s expansion, the past few months have shown that the group is
adapting rather than collapsing. To defeat it, the U.S. and its partners
must in turn adapt their approach, by anticipating how the group will
evolve.
Brexit’s Geopolitical Aftershocks Will Be Felt From China to Russia
By: Arthur Snell | Briefing
Amid the turbulence of
Brexit, less attention has been paid to its geopolitical effects. But on
the key issues of Russia, Syria, China and trade, Brexit will have
direct and significant impacts. Getting the geopolitics right may be the
most important priority for Prime Minister David Cameron’s successor.
Nicaragua’s Politics Are About More Than Just Ortega, Despite His Hold on Power
By: Christine Wade | Briefing
In November, Nicaraguans
will head to the polls, and President Daniel Ortega is predicted to win
his fourth term in office. Though his candidacy comes as no surprise,
two recent controversies have revived debates about Ortega’s stewardship
and the status of democracy in Nicaragua.
South Africa’s Space Program Suffers From Lack of Political Will
By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Researchers at South
Africa’s Stellenbosch University have developed technology that will
help collect space junk, which they hope to have operational in 2017. In
an email interview, Keith Gottschaik, a founding member of the South
African Space Association, discusses South Africa’s space program.
NATO’s Moves to Deter Russia Won’t End Georgia’s Membership Limbo
By: Michael Cecire | Briefing
The tenor of NATO’s
summit in Warsaw late last week focused overwhelmingly on deterring
Russia’s military adventurism. While it was a positive turn for members
of the alliance’s eastern flank, longstanding NATO aspirants like
Georgia are unlikely to see any relief from their extended membership
limbo.
Turkey Rapprochement and Close Egypt Ties Reflect Israel's Evolving Outlook
By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines
Israel’s deal to restore
ties with Turkey comes at a moment when the country’s strategic outlook,
internationally, domestically and in terms of the Palestinian conflict,
is evolving. While prospects for stability in the region seem
increasingly far off, the implications for Israel itself are less
alarming.
Obama’s Term Draws to an End, but the U.S. War in Afghanistan Is Forever
By: Michael A. Cohen | Column
President Barack Obama’s
announcement to slow the final stages of the drawdown of U.S. troops
from Afghanistan should come as no surprise: The Obama White House has
never had a clear strategy for Afghanistan other than to continue to put
military pressure on the Taliban and muddle through.
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