WPR Articles June 23 — June 29

Brexit’s Ripple Effects Will Reach the Middle East, Too

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

The outcome of the Brexit referendum is bad news for the Middle East region on a number of scores, in particular what it says about Western attitudes toward migrants and Muslims, and about loss of support for economic integration, a big idea that would improve prospects for the Arab world.

Erdogan and Military Both Seek Political Gains in Turkey’s War Against the PKK

By: Iyad Dakka | Briefing

The escalating violence of Turkey’s war against the PKK has led some to begin speaking of the “Syrianization” of the country’s southeastern region. But there are important political dividends to be won, something both President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Turkish military recognize clearly.

South China Sea Spat a Symptom of U.S.-China Jockeying for Advantage

By: Timothy R. Heath | Briefing

Maritime tensions in the South China Sea stand out as the most prominent of a set of disputes between China and the United States. Underpinning these various issues lays an intensifying strategic competition, even as both countries face constraints against pursuing a destructive confrontation.

Brexit Makes Early Warning on International Crises Even More Imperative

By: Richard Gowan | Column

A major crisis in the international system is often followed by a host of smaller crises. In the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, major powers and international organizations need to make a priority of early warning mechanisms for such crises as well as diplomatic engagement to handle them.

The Hidden Factors Behind Resurging Violence in Mexico

By: Benoît Gomis | Briefing

The leaders of Mexico, Canada and the U.S. meet today for the final so-called Three Amigos summit of Barack Obama’s presidency. While other issues will be high on the agenda, so too will the longstanding problem of violence associated with transnational drug trafficking, particularly in Mexico.

Buhari’s Policy Shifts Raise Hopes for Economic Pragmatism in Nigeria

By: Ayso van Eysinga | Briefing

Nigeria’s currency, the naira, lost 30 percent of its value after the central bank abandoned its peg to the dollar Monday. The bank’s move was a substantial but long-overdue shift after a year of haphazard and detrimental economic policy under the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari.

Germany and Turkey Hit a Rough Patch, but Long-Term Ties Strong

By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines

Ties between Germany and Turkey have hit a rough patch after Germany recognized the Armenian genocide and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for the prosecution of a German comic. But given the migrant crisis and cultural bonds between them, bilateral ties aren’t at risk of eroding.

How India Uses Tech Assistance to Expand Ties With Africa

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Earlier this month, Indian President Pranab Mukherjee went on a six-day tour of Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire and Namibia, where he announced new grant assistance and lines of credit as well as expanded scholarship opportunities. In an email interview, Amanda Lucey discusses India’s outreach to Africa.

Will Netanyahu Be Able to Hold Off the Rise of Israel’s Political Center?

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

It is in the political center that the newest sprouts of activism are rising in Israel, and it is from there that the next Israeli political force is likely to emerge. It remains to be seen if that force, and whoever ends up leading it, will be able to topple Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Brexit Heightens Uncertainty for the EU, but Alarmism Might Be Premature

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and host Peter Dörrie discuss the impact of the Brexit vote on the U.K. and the European Union. For the Report, Richard Weitz joins us to talk about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to shore up ties with China.

Rural Protests Add a New Wrinkle to Colombia’s Post-Conflict Challenges

By: Charlotte Mackenzie | Briefing

Two weeks of protests and roadblocks ended in Colombia two weeks ago after peasant farmers and indigenous groups reached an agreement with the Colombian government to include them in future rulings on mining and other issues in the country’s rural areas. Now the key will be implementing the deal.

Three National Security Questions for the U.S. Presidential Candidates

By: Steven Metz | Column

Thus far, foreign and security policy have received more attention than is normal for this phase of a U.S. presidential election. But even given this attention, the two candidates have only provided an outline of their positions. The media should press them for answers on three questions in particular.

Gulf Geopolitics Drive, and Shield, Bahrain’s Crackdown on Shiites

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

Last week, authorities in Bahrain stripped Sheikh Isa Qassim, the country’s most prominent Shiite cleric, of his citizenship. The move was just the latest in an ongoing crackdown on the largely Shiite opposition. Bahrain’s straitjacket on dissent is nothing new, but it has visibly tightened recently.

Post-Fukushima, Japan Faces Bigger Hurdles to Combat Climate Change

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Japan announced earlier this year that it had been successful at cutting its carbon dioxide emissions by 3 percent—the first time emissions have decreased since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. In an email interview, Aiko Shmizu discussed Japan’s contribution and response to climate change.

Caribbean Regionalism Set to Suffer Under New St. Lucia Leadership

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

St. Lucia went to the polls earlier this month, with the conservative United Workers Party, led by Allen Chastanet, beating the incumbent Labour Party on a platform of tax cuts and economic growth. In an email interview, Tennyson Joseph discussed the elections and the state of politics in St. Lucia.

The Grass-Roots Efforts That Will Help Nairobi Urbanize Quickly—and Well

By: Abigail Higgins | Feature

With Nairobi’s slums, trash heaps and poor infrastructure, the growing city reveals the consequences of a global shift toward urbanization, and the risks of being ill-equipped to make important structural changes to facilitate a rising population. Some promising projects, however, are underway.

The UAE’s Yemen Pivot Could Make Differences With Riyadh Unbridgeable

By: Peter Salisbury | Briefing

In recent remarks declaring an end to UAE combat operations in Yemen, a high-ranking UAE official may have revealed something many analysts have suspected for some time: that the UAE is no longer involved in the battle for northwest Yemen, but is instead focused on securing the south of the country.

Memo to U.S. Pundits: Stop Looking for the Brexit Culprit in Washington

By: Michael A. Cohen | Column

In the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, the debate among U.S. foreign policy pundits has taken a predictable turn: looking for who is to blame. Not surprisingly, if you are familiar with U.S. foreign policy punditry, the culprit is to be found, not in London or Brussels, but in Washington.