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Will Iran and Saudi Arabia Go to War?
Judy Dempsey
Wednesday, January 6, 2016 | http://carnegieeurope.eu/
Cornelius Adebahr Associate in Carnegie’s Europe Program
They might, and one could be inclined to say
that they should—if only for them to see how devastating their unchecked
rivalry is. After all, it took France and Germany a number of wars to
overcome their hereditary enmity and embark on the path of European
integration. However, the cost of war, for the people in an already
war-torn region as well as for the world as a whole, would be too high
to contemplate such prospects lightly.
Ironically, Iran—the West’s longtime adversary—has proved more rational over the past couple of years than the West’s ally, Saudi Arabia, has in the last twelve months. Tehran has little interest in starting a war that would endanger the economic and political benefits promised by the July 2015 deal on Iran’s nuclear program. Riyadh, in contrast, acts like a cornered boxer incalculably fighting for survival.
This leaves only bad options for Europe and the United States. They should refrain from taking sides, including through arms sales, and press both parties to backtrack. Yet given their lack of real influence, the Western partners should explore how a grand bargain with China, India, and Russia in the framework of the United Nations could help stabilize the Middle East at least for the next decade. With the region going up in flames and its powers behaving irresponsibly, there is no alternative to outside interference, as bad a taste as this may have.
Ironically, Iran—the West’s longtime adversary—has proved more rational over the past couple of years than the West’s ally, Saudi Arabia, has in the last twelve months. Tehran has little interest in starting a war that would endanger the economic and political benefits promised by the July 2015 deal on Iran’s nuclear program. Riyadh, in contrast, acts like a cornered boxer incalculably fighting for survival.
This leaves only bad options for Europe and the United States. They should refrain from taking sides, including through arms sales, and press both parties to backtrack. Yet given their lack of real influence, the Western partners should explore how a grand bargain with China, India, and Russia in the framework of the United Nations could help stabilize the Middle East at least for the next decade. With the region going up in flames and its powers behaving irresponsibly, there is no alternative to outside interference, as bad a taste as this may have.
Koert Debeuf Project coordinator of the “World Leaders on Transitions towards Democracy” publication at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance
No, Saudi Arabia and Iran will not go to war. At least, not a real war in which both countries declare war on each other. There are two important reasons for which one can be pretty sure of this.More at: http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=62410&mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRonvKXNZKXonjHpfsX57uQsW6Sg38431UFwdcjKPmjr1YIGRcR0aPyQAgobGp5I5FEIQ7XYTLB2t60MWA%3D%3D
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