Russia Faces Israel Deconfliction Dilemma

The Netanyahu government in Israel is deeply disturbed by the unfolding situation in Syria and the lack of a solid understanding with Russia over how to deal with the ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Hamas. On Tuesday, Oct. 6, a Russian military delegation, led by Deputy Chief of Staff Nikolai Bogdanovsky, arrived in Israel to continue talks that began last month in Moscow, when Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot visited the Russian capital to confer with President Vladimir Putin and Valery Gerasimov.

While the Russians and Israelis announced they would establish a working group at the general staff level, significant disagreements remained after the Moscow talks, and there is skepticism that the issues have been resolved during the Russian delegation’s visit to Israel.

In the Moscow talks, Netanyahu sought Russian approval for Israel to continue military operations inside Syrian territory, whenever Israel got intelligence on weapons convoys moving towards the Lebanese border. The Syrian route is one of the primary channels for the smuggling of Iranian weapons into Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Putin outright rejected Israel’s blanket authorization to continue air operations against Hezbollah inside Syrian territory. He pledged, instead, that Russia would not permit Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israel from inside Syria and would not permit Russian weapons to be turned over to Hezbollah. This left an enormous gap between the Israeli demands and the Russian promises. Most of the weapons obtained by Hezbollah and Hamas come from Iran, not Russia. Syria is known to be the storage depot for components of advanced rockets, which are smuggled into Lebanon and Gaza and are then assembled. 

In the second round of negotiations in Israel, Netanyahu and the IDF leadership made clear that they consider it a high national security priority to have a free hand to block weapons smuggling into Lebanon and Gaza from Syria. Israel will not accept any deal that falls short of ironclad promises that the smuggling routes will be verifiably shut down.

Israel has already conducted reconnaissance sorties into airspace along the Syrian-Lebanese border, profiling for weak spots that can be penetrated. In one instance, Russian MIGs chased Israeli F-16s out. 

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