World Politics Review Weekly 5/29

Editor’s Note The surprise election of Andrzej Duda, a relatively unknown, conservative 43-year-old lawyer, to the Polish presidency has sent shock waves through Europe, Mitchell Orenstein writes this week. Modeling himself on controversial Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Duda “has Europe on edge, given his economic populism, euroskepticism and hawkish foreign policy views on Russia.” Reviewing the “wildly divergent assessments” of the U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council summit at Camp David earlier this month, Ellen Laipson looks at “the subtle and often contradictory ways the United States and the GCC find themselves entwined in each other’s national security policies.” And in our latest feature, Lisa Sachs and Nicolas Maennling explore the commodities cycle, as prices for oil, minerals and other natural resources have plunged in the past year, and how countries can break it. Coming up on WPR: Michael Koplow on Israel and Turkey’s ties, which are frozen politically but thriving economically, Matthias Matthijs on the United Kingdom’s shrinking global role and Chris Sabatini on domestic spying in South America. —Frederick Deknatel, Associate Editor   WPR Articles May 26, 2015 - May 29, 2015 Conflict Fears Fade in Mozambique, but Renamo’s Demands Do Not By: Carrie Manning | Briefing Earlier this month, fears of Mozambique sliding back into civil war receded after the leader of the opposition Renamo party toned down his bellicose rhetoric over last year’s contested election. Yet most of the issues that, according to Renamo, prompted its return to violence in 2013 still have not been resolved. Abbas Stumbles at Home Despite Palestine Recognition Gains Abroad By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ symbolic victories abroad on statehood recognition appear to be doing little to reverse his growing unpopularity at home. Palestinians are dissatisfied with Abbas’ Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority and the sorry state of politics and democracy he has overseen. For Israel, No Good Outcomes in Syria’s War By: Frida Ghitis | Column Despite Israel and Syria’s continuing enmity, their border has been calm for decades. In the past few years, however, the region’s strategic landscape has changed drastically, particularly with regard to Syria’s civil war. For Israel, that has introduced an extremely complicated security dilemma. Jalisco Cartel’s Rise Exposes Limits of Mexico’s Security Strategy By: Benoît Gomis | Briefing The Jalisco New Generation Cartel, responsible for a string of deadly attacks, is Mexico’s latest challenge in dealing with drug cartels. The gang has emerged to fill the leadership vacuum created by President Enrique Pena Nieto’s top-down strategy of targeting leaders of criminal organizations. Saudi War Rhetoric Belied by Yemen’s Fractured Battlefield By: Peter Salisbury | Briefing As Saudi-led airstrikes in Yemen continue against Houthi rebels, resistance to the Houthis on the ground has been ineffective, conducted by groups that share few common goals. That has led Riyadh to lean increasingly on Yemen’s Sunni Islamists, who just a year ago it named members of a terrorist organization.

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As Iran Deal Nears, U.S. Must Also Reassure Central Asia, Caucasus

By: Richard Weitz | Column

As nuclear negotiations with Iran enter the home stretch, much attention has been focused on the U.S. need to reaffirm its security commitment to Persian Gulf allies. However, the U.S. also needs to manage a nuclear deal’s impact on Iranian influence in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

Jamaica Taking Steps to Expand Its Caribbean Trade Ties

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Earlier this month, Jamaica announced plans to expand regional trade ties through a framework agreement with Cuba and a deal that supplements the existing free trade agreement with Costa Rica. In an interview, Krista Lucenti, an economist with the Inter-American Development Bank, discussed Jamaica’s trade policy.

Resource Resilience: How to Break the Commodities Cycle

By: Lisa Sachs, Nicolas Maennling | Feature

The past year has seen dramatic declines in the prices of global commodities. The inevitability of price fluctuations raises the question of what countries dependent on commodity exports can learn from past mistakes, and what measures they can take to build resilience against commodity cycles.

Duda’s Surprise Presidential Win in Poland Raises Populist Specter

By: Mitchell A. Orenstein | Briefing

The surprise election of Andrzej Duda, a relatively unknown, conservative 43-year-old lawyer, to the Polish presidency Sunday over the popular incumbent, Bronislaw Komorowski, has put Europe on edge, given Duda’s mix of right-wing populism, euroskepticism and hawkish foreign policy views on Russia.

The Past’s First Lesson: Beware of False Historical Analogies

By: Michael A. Cohen | Column

No field of public policy is more regularly misrepresented by false historical analogies than foreign affairs. The problem exists across the political spectrum—for hawks, who view any willingness to compromise as another Munich; and for doves, who see every military intervention as Iraq War II.

The Rashomon Effect: U.S.-Gulf Relations After Camp David Summit

By: Ellen Laipson | Trend Lines

There’s a danger of imbuing too much importance to the U.S.-GCC summit earlier this month, but parsing the event is useful in part because it captures the subtle and often contradictory ways the U.S. and GCC find themselves entwined in each other’s national security policies.

Emerging Neo-Feudal World Leaving U.S., Global Security Behind

By: Steven Metz | Column

If it manages to survive its fight against the Islamic State intact, Iraq will end up with a titular national government in the capital while regional potentates actually run the place. But Iraq is not the only country headed in this direction. In fact, the world is seeing the re-emergence of feudalism.