Obama in the Middle East: Condominium Or Equilibrium?

March 28, 2015

by Jim Lobe
In the last 48 or so hours, U.S. warplanes began bombing Islamic State (ISIS or IS) targets in and around Tikrit in support of the Iran-backed and Shi’a-led Iraqi government. At the same time, Washington provided unspecified intelligence and logistical support to a Saudi-led attack (if not invasion) against Houthi forces in Yemen. Coincidence? Very possibly. But it is also perhaps a demonstration of Obama’s very challenging efforts to establish an “equilibrium” between Shia and Sunni forces throughout the Middle East region, especially in the Gulf.
Obama explicitly made such equilibrium a strategic aim in the region in his famous interview with The New Yorker’s David Remnick 14 months ago.

It would be profoundly in the interest of citizens throughout the region if Sunnis and Shias weren’t intent on killing each other. And although it would not solve the entire problem, if we were able to get Iran to operate in a responsible fashion—not funding terrorist organizations, not trying to stir up sectarian discontent in other countries, and not developing a nuclear weapon—you could see an equilibrium developing between Sunni, or predominantly Sunni, Gulf states and Iran in which there’s competition, perhaps suspicion, but not an active or proxy warfare.

Of course, that was at best an overly optimistic take on prospects at the time. The interview came before IS forces swept from their Syrian bases into Iraq and eventually to the outskirts of Baghdad and Erbil, prompting Tehran to rush military aid and advisers in support of the Baghdad government. It also happened well before the Houthis, in alliance with Yemen’s powerful (and extremely wealthy) ex-president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, ousted the U.S.- and Saudi-backed government of interim President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, eventually marching to the very gates of Aden. This Houthi offensive prompted the military intervention of the Saudi-led and U.S.-backed coalition forces, which according to Riyadh’s account, will eventually include at least 10 other Sunni-led nations.http://www.lobelog.com/obama-in-the-middle-east-condominium-or-equilibrium/