Making Sense of The Turkey-ISIS Mess

December 2, 2014 by Graham E. Fuller • Blog • http://grahamefuller.com/141201-making-sense-of-the-turkey-isis-mess/
1 December 2014
Among the many confusing factors swirling around the whole ISIS phenomenon is the role, or roles, of Turkey in the situation. It might be helpful to tick off some of the major salient factors that compete to form Turkish policies towards ISIS under Erdoğan at this point.
-DEALING WITH ASAD: First, Turkey fell into the same analytic error that most countries and most analysts, including myself did: the assumption that after Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, the Asad regime in Syria, now facing its own Arab Spring uprising, would be the next to fall. It did not happen. Erdoğan had been deeply and personally invested in mentoring Asad as a “younger brother” for nearly a decade, bringing him closer to western and especially EU ties, helping moderate a number of internal Syrian issues. After the uprising began in Syria, Asad then refused to follow Erdoğan ’s strong advice about yielding some democratic concessions to the early anti-regime demonstrators in Syria; Erdoğan grew angry, felt he had lost face internationally with his claims to exert influence over Asad, and finally grew determined to overthrow Asad by force. The more difficult the task turned out to be, the more Erdoğan doubled down, determined to get him out using almost any means—now driven by deep personal grudge as well.http://grahamefuller.com/141201-making-sense-of-the-turkey-isis-mess/