WPR Articles 06 Apr 2013 - 12 Apr 2013

Strategic Horizons: In North Korea’s Dangerous Game, It’s China’s Move

By: Steven Metz | Column

Under North Korea's former dictator Kim Jong Il, crises followed a well-choreographed pattern. However much this game frustrated the United States, Washington was fairly confident that it would not escalate into accidental war. Kim knew how far to push and when to back off. Unfortunately, the young Kim Jong Un is now attempting to emulate his father but in a much clumsier and more dangerous way.

The Realist Prism: Jihadists’ Rise Complicates U.S. Strategy on Syria

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

The announcement this week that the Nusra Front, one of the main armed groups battling to take down the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has formally announced its allegiance to al-Qaida could signal a major shift in Syria's two-year-long civil war. It certainly complicates matters for the United States, particularly its efforts to forge a pro-Western provisional government to take over from Assad.

After Chavez, U.S. Ties Less Present in Venezuela Election

By: Jan-Albert Hootsen | Briefing

In December, if only briefly, there appeared to be prospects for a brighter future for Venezuela-U.S. ties. Hugo Chavez’s vice president and anointed successor, Nicolas Maduro, announced that Caracas would engage in a dialogue with Washington to possibly improve bilateral relations. Five months later, as Venezuela’s presidential election heats up, U.S.-Venezuela ties have not become a serious topic for debate.

To Maintain Growth, Africa Must Improve Governance

By: Scott B. MacDonald | Briefing

Africa’s relatively rapid growth rates, improved fiscal and debt management and improving political stability are forming an image of a “rising Africa” ripe for international investment. And despite remaining high risks, global investors increasingly find Africa’s potential returns compelling. But the looming question is whether Africa’s growth spurt and related investor interest are sustainable.

Georgia Embraces ‘Smart Defense’ in Euro-Atlantic Bid

By: Michael Cecire | Briefing

Georgia's recent announcement of its intention to contribute to the EU military operation in Mali signals not only Tbilisi's continued role as a supplier of forces for Euro-Atlantic security missions, but also the Georgian military's ambitions as a niche counterterrorism force. To support these ambitions, the Defense Ministry is embarking on a series of reforms to fit its force structure to this mission set.

More Diplomatic Fallout: U.N.'s ‘Intervention Brigade’ Raises Cost of Interference in DRC By: Richard Gowan | Column Discussions about U.N. peacekeeping often get bogged down in technical details, rather than tackling big strategic questions. This is true of the U.N. Security Council’s decision to mandate an “intervention brigade” in the DRC. A lot of talk has focused on the council’s unusually aggressive language, with less on the brigade’s role in the complex political struggle for access to the DRC’s natural resources. Global Insider: U.S. Can Bolster International Criminal Court From the Outside By: The Editors | Trend Lines In an email interview, Harry Rhea, assistant professor of criminal justice at Florida International University and author of the book “The United States and International Criminal Tribunals: An Introduction,” discussed U.S.-ICC cooperation and how the U.S. can bolster the court without joining it. Japan Looks to Reinvigorate Africa Policy By: Jonathan Berkshire Miller | Briefing While they may not garner the same headlines as China’s energy politics in the region or U.S. counterterrorism work in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, Japan’s efforts across Africa are increasing in depth and scope. As the dynamic states of Africa continue to evolve and develop a range of international partnerships, Tokyo should keep its eye trained on maintaining a strong economic presence on the continent. Japan Spots Opportunity as Saudi Arabia Diversifies Energy Sector By: Saurav Jha | Briefing In February, Japan reportedly offered civil nuclear cooperation to Saudi Arabia to help the kingdom boost oil exports by freeing up supplies used in domestic electricity generation. Given its plans for a massive nuclear buildout, Saudi Arabia seems a logical destination for the Japanese nuclear sector. But Motegi's offer also reflects a desire not to concede strategic space to the Chinese in the Persian Gulf. Global Insights: South Korea Must Widen BMD Cooperation to Counter North Korean Threats By: Richard Weitz | Column South Korea finds itself in a difficult situation. On one hand, it must respond to North Korea’s missile threats. On the other, it must do so without provoking Pyongyang or Beijing. Chinese officials are already concerned by South Korea’s strengthening security ties with the U.S., particularly in BMD cooperation. But the added pressure closer cooperation puts on China to rein in Pyongyang could prove helpful. India’s Plans for Sea-based Deterrent Open a Pandora’s Box in South Asia By: Yogesh Joshi | Briefing India is making strides in developing the sea-based component of its nuclear arsenal, in particular with regard to submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Yet despite these advances, India’s nuclear ambitions on the high seas still face several technical obstacles. Technical challenges aside, the major problem is the implications an Indian nuclear triad would have for nuclear stability in the region. Mexico, China Stand to Benefit From Improved Ties By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines Over the weekend, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, who is on a tour of Asia that ends tomorrow, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping as part of an effort to improve the Mexico-China bilateral relationship. Global Insider: Economic Growth Still the Big Factor in Ending Extreme Poverty By: The Editors | Trend Lines In an email interview, Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center on Global Development who has written on the Millennium Development Goals, discussed what ending extreme poverty means, and what it would take. Global Insider: India’s Novartis Ruling Sets a Precedent for Brazil, South Africa By: The Editors | Trend Lines In an email interview, Sudip Chaudhuri, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Management in Calcutta specializing in patents and the pharmaceutical industry, explained the background and likely impact of an Indian Supreme Court ruling allowing the continued production of generic drugs. World Citizen: ‘First Do No Harm’ Key to Obama’s Israeli-Palestinian Plan By: Frida Ghitis | Column The Arab-Israeli conflict has never lost its power to conjure visions of Nobel Peace prizes among world diplomats, even as it has repeatedly thwarted their efforts. Despite the occasional success, well-intentioned plans have also backfired disastrously, triggering new violence. As the Obama administration launches a new push for peace between Israelis and Palestinians, the watchword must be, “First, do no harm.” After 55 Years, Political Transition in Malaysia Has Never Been More Likely By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines Malaysia has chosen May 5 as the date of national elections that will decide whether Prime Minister Najib Razak’s National Front, the multiethnic political coalition that has governed the country since independence, will hold on to power.   After It Makes Peace, Colombia Must Govern By: Adam Isacson | Briefing Colombians under 65 cannot remember living in a country at peace. Internal armed conflict has raged almost continuously in the South American nation since 1948. With talks ongoing between the government and the larger of the country’s two leftist guerrilla groups, the FARC, Colombians may soon find out what peace is like. But they may find it only a bit more peaceful or secure than what came before.

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