CFR Daily News Brief: North Korea's Nuke Test Threat Draws Concern

Daily News Brief January 24, 2013

Top of the Agenda: North Korea's Nuke Test Threat Draws Concern

North Korea warned Thursday that it will conduct its third nuclear test in defiance of the UN Security Council's expanded sanctions, making clear that its long-range rockets carry warheads aimed at striking the United States (Reuters). The threat came after a special U.S. envoy, after talks with a South Korean counterpart in Seoul on Thursday, warned Pyongyang (Yonhap) against conducting nuclear tests. Meanwhile, China called on all relevant parties to "refrain from action" that might escalate the situation. Beijing backed Tuesday's Security Council resolution--a move that analysts said angered its northern neighbor.

Analysis

"[There] are few options for responding to this latest development. So far, it seems, sanctions haven't worked as a deterrent. And even pressure from Pyongyang's main backer, China, seems to have carried little weight over the past few months," writes Lucy Williamson for the BBC.

"If the missile were to launch and show a U.S. based path, the Navy has 16 Aegis equipped ships in the Pacific theater with perhaps 20 SM-3 anti-ballistic interceptors each to bring the North Korean missile down. The Aegis system has been successful in taking down missiles for more than 10 years and the most recent configuration SM-3 is very accurate, and reliable," writes Robert Johnson for Business Insider.

"North Korea obviously didn't appreciate this move, so the threatening statement is being read as a visceral response. However, that does not mean that North Korea will actually follow through with nuclear tests and further alienate themselves from the rest of the world. They've made empty threats in the past," writes Adam Clark Estes for the Atlantic.