The Economist Book Review: China Airborne by James Fallows

Aviation in China

Soaring ambition

Big plans to dominate the skies of the 21st century

May 12th 2012 | from the print edition
China Airborne. By James Fallows. Pantheon; 268 pages; $25.95. Buy from Amazon.com
OVER the next few years, China plans to spend a quarter of a trillion dollars building the aerospace industries of the future. The country hosts more than two-thirds of the airports now under construction around the world. It will be the biggest growth market for Boeing and Airbus, though China is investing heavily in developing home-grown rivals in the hope of dominating the aviation markets of the 21st century.
The sheer scale and audacity of China’s ambitions and investments in this field are eye-opening. James Fallows, a senior correspondent at the Atlantic (and a critic of this paper), is well suited to chronicle this effort, which has parallels with America’s expansion westward during its age of Manifest Destiny. Not only does the book benefit from his keen observations as a journalist in China, but also it is enriched by his technical knowledge as a passionate aviator. The result is informative and lively, with hardly a trace of needless jargon.
The only drawback to this slender volume is that its own ambition overreaches. Mr Fallows is not satisfied with describing China’s breathtaking plans to conquer global aviation markets. Instead, he insists on viewing the country’s entire future through aviator’s goggles. “China’s aerospace future is a test case for its economic and technological development as a whole,” he claims.
The obstacles facing the country’s aviation industry do indeed cut to the heart of China’s economic challenges today. Thanks to global integration and rising wages, the country’s days as a shameless copycat and sweatshop to the world are numbered; its leaders know it must become more innovative if it is to flourish. Doing so will require, as the author wisely observes, big changes in its stifling approach to education, unreliable legal system and repressive political regime, as well as adjustments to various social norms.
But does aviation really serve as a litmus test for such a transformation? To be sure, success in this industry of industries requires enormous sophistication, co-ordination, openness and innovation. Still, it may not be the best way to judge “whether the Chinese system is ready to grow up”. After all, Switzerland and Costa Rica became robust democracies with flourishing economies without developing jet engines. And the Soviet Union managed a world-class space programme, yet was an economic and political basket case.
On the crucial question of whether China will come to dominate this industry, the author is cautious. He lays out both sides of the argument, but steps back from offering a definitive judgment. In less capable hands, this might have been unsatisfying, but Mr Fallows deftly makes the case for keeping an open mind. Confident predictions of any sort are unwise in a land as full of contradictions as China.