WPR Articles 17 Dec 2011 - 23 Dec 2011

With Violence Rising, Kazakhstan's Elections Loom Ahead

By: Richard Weitz | Briefing

The death of around a dozen people over the weekend in western Kazakhstan follows months of strikes and violence. The exact reasons for the disturbances are unclear. Labor disputes, clan rivalries and resurgent Islamist militancy all seem to be at work. Whatever the causes, Kazakh authorities should heed the warning and ensure that the country’s upcoming legislative elections are free and fair.

The Arab Spring and China's Evolving Middle East Policy

By: Jing-dong Yuan | Feature

In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, Beijing has found to its dismay that its past policy of diplomatic ambivalence in dealing with Middle Eastern countries is no longer tenable. It suddenly has to balance its support of the regimes in power with recognition of the aspirations of the populations in revolt in many of these countries. In short, staying aloof is rapidly becoming a luxury that China can ill afford.

The Shadow of Protectionism Still Lurks in 2012

By: Sean Goforth | Briefing

Europe's unresolved debt crisis has been the major problem facing the global economy of late, leading investors to take refuge in the safe haven of U.S. debt and thereby driving down the value of many currencies that had been bid up at the beginning of 2011. But while the problem of overvalued currencies may have receded, the underlying issue of currency manipulation still threatens the global economy.

World Citizen: The 10 Stories of 2011 that Changed the World

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

It's too soon to know how the events of this fast-fading year will ultimately reshape our world, but the upheaval we witnessed in 2011 will most assuredly keep future historians ponderously occupied. It was a year that will have mattered in many ways, many of which we don't yet fully understand, but that clearly represent a turning point. Ten events in particular reshaped the global landscape in 2011.

The Realist Prism: Toward a Color Revolution in Russia?

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

Another round of protests is scheduled for Russia on Saturday, raising the question of whether a “color revolution" capable of toppling the government is in the cards. While Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has darkly warned about Western efforts to support the protest movements, for a major political shift to take place in Russia over the next several months, several preconditions must be in place.

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The New Rules: Worried by China's Rise? Watch Out for its Decline

By: Thomas P.M. Barnett | Column

Much of what drives America’s current phobias regarding China stems from the dual assumptions of America’s terminal decline and China’s perpetual ascension. We are thus led to believe that China no longer needs the U.S. and that America can do nothing, short of increasing military pressure, to constrain China's rise to global hegemony. On all scores, nothing could be further from the truth.

Iraq: A Gamble in Both War and Peace

By: Alan W. Dowd | Briefing

The Iraq War began with “shock and awe.” It ended with quiet dignity, with a free but fragile Iraq walking into the unknown and a bloodied but unbowed U.S. military saluting its commander-in-chief and marching home. But just as it was a gamble for President George W. Bush to launch the war and then the surge, it is a gamble for President Barack Obama to pull virtually all American troops out of Iraq.

Global Insights: Contingency Planning for an Unpredictable North Korea

By: Richard Weitz | Column

Two uncertainties define the current succession process in North Korea. First, will the new leadership pursue aggressive or moderate foreign policies? Second, how should foreign countries respond to the new situation in Pyongyang? Although some indicators of future behavior should emerge in coming weeks, the succession process could take years to evolve, making both questions difficult to address.

Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab Spring

By: Nancy E. Brune | Feature

After anti-government protests enveloped many corners of North Africa a year ago, political commentators seemed optimistic that the Arab Spring would spread southward to sub-Saharan Africa. But while there is reason for optimism about the region’s future, hopes for rapid democratization would be misplaced. A year after the first uprisings in North Africa, it is clear that sub-Saharan Africa is not poised on the verge of an African Spring.

Will Europe Shrink From the Arab Spring?

By: Omer Taspinar and Jonathan Laurence | Feature

Will the Arab Spring finally end the European Union’s lethargic approach to the southern Mediterranean and lead to more serious support for democratization? Don’t hold your breath. The eurozone crisis, the success of Islamist parties in post-Arab Spring elections and the EU's reluctance to embrace Turkey all suggest that “business as usual” with only cosmetic changes is likely to remain the norm.

Over the Horizon: The Art of the Reasonable in North Korea

By: Robert Farley | Column

Kim Jong Il is dead, and the world is wondering what to do about it. Some are arguing that the U.S. should now push hard against the DPRK, hopefully causing it to topple. But the DPRK is likely not only to survive such pressure, but to respond by lashing out. A much better approach would be to reach out to North Korean factions potentially interested in reintegrating the DPRK into the international community.

China Enters New and Uncertain Phase of Economic Growth

By: Iain Mills | Briefing

There is growing evidence that China is entering a new phase in its economic development, even as deterioration in the global macroeconomic environment has limited Beijing's policy options for reform and reduced its margin for error. With domestic systemic financial stress and social tension also both ticking upward, 2012 could prove to be one of the most challenging years yet in China's economic re-emergence.

Amid Political Turmoil, South Korea Faces Kim Jong Il's Death

By: Steven Borowiec | Briefing

Kim Jong Il’s death has introduced a potent new variable into South Korean politics at a time when the South’s traditional political parties are struggling to stay relevant amid waning support. With both general and presidential elections scheduled next year, this vulnerability may tempt the North to engage in provocation, while making it difficult for the South to respond cohesively.

From Trend Lines:

Global Insider: Russia-Czech Republic Relations

Global Insider: Commercial Spy Satellites

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South Korean Coast Guard Stabbing Highlights Problem of Illegal Fishing in East Asia

Global Insider: Canada's Overseas Military Deployments