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Saturday, April 30, 2011
Obama Covers for OPEC The problem is the cartel, not the “price gouging.”
Obama Covers for OPEC
The problem is the cartel, not the “price gouging.”
The problem is the cartel, not the “price gouging.”
China to foster cooperation with ASEAN
China to foster cooperation with ASEAN
Jakarta (AFP) April 30, 2011 Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said Saturday Beijing wants to boost cooperation in trade and security with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In a policy speech on the last day of a three-day visit to Indonesia, the current chair of ASEAN and its biggest member, Wen extolled the virtues of an ASEAN-China free trade agreement (FTA) that came into effect in January.
"China is committed to deepening practical cooperation with ASEAN," Wen said.
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Jakarta (AFP) April 30, 2011 Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said Saturday Beijing wants to boost cooperation in trade and security with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In a policy speech on the last day of a three-day visit to Indonesia, the current chair of ASEAN and its biggest member, Wen extolled the virtues of an ASEAN-China free trade agreement (FTA) that came into effect in January.
"China is committed to deepening practical cooperation with ASEAN," Wen said.
Flournoy: Asia Will be Heart of U.S. Security Policy
Flournoy: Asia Will be Heart of U.S. Security PolicyBy Lisa DanielAmerican Forces Press Service WASHINGTON, April 29, 2011 – While the United States is confronting terrorism and hostile regimes in places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and Libya, leaders also are looking eastward to shape U.S. security policy for the long-term, the Pentagon’s top policy official said last night. “When future historians look back at this era, I am convinced that the rise of Asia will be noted as the central geo-strategic fact of our time,” Michèle Flournoy, undersecretary of defense for policy, told a packed room of policy experts at Johns Hopkins University’s “Rethinking Seminar” here. “By most measures, the Asia-Pacific region is the most important and most dynamic region in the world today -- and likely to be more so as this still-young century unfolds,” she said. |
Friday, April 29, 2011
This Week at War: Company Men
This Week at War: Company Men
Do CIA directors make good defense secretaries?
Imagining a World Without Oil
Imagining a World Without Oil
Hallett & Wright, Cleveland Plain Dealer
It's not just at the drip of the final drop that the oil crisis begins. It is when production stagnates and begins its inexorable fall. That perilous moment, alas, is now. Our oil supplies are about to begin to fail us. As oil becomes more scarce, we have to get serious about finding new solutions to power our world.
It's not just at the drip of the final drop that the oil crisis begins. It is when production stagnates and begins its inexorable fall. That perilous moment, alas, is now. Our oil supplies are about to begin to fail us. As oil becomes more scarce, we have to get serious about finding new solutions to power our world.
BP Still Being Awarded Lucrative Government Contracts
BP Still Being Awarded Lucrative Government Contracts
WPR Articles 23 Apr 2011 - 29 Apr 2011
WPR Articles 23 Apr 2011 - 29 Apr 2011
U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor
By: Nader Habibi | BriefingCurrent U.S. policy toward Bahrain neglects the potential adverse consequences on U.S. interests in Iraq. If Iran were the only country outraged by the suppression of the Bahraini protests, it would have made sense for the United States to focus on preserving its strategic relations with Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. But the crackdown has infuriated Shiites in Iraq, where they dominate the central government.
BRICS Not Yet a Credible Political Bloc
By: Harsh V. Pant | BriefingThe joint statement produced by the one-day leaders summit of the BRICS grouping represents an attempt by the emerging powers to coordinate their efforts on the global stage, in order to fill the void left by Washington's increasing preoccupation with domestic troubles. But great-power politics is a murky business, and for all the bonhomie at the Hainan summit, there remain serious differences among the BRICS.
Over the Horizon: Crafting an IR Professional's Reading List
By: Robert Farley | ColumnWhat do policymakers have to read in order to be "informed" on international affairs? The question is more than just a theoretical exercise, as every summer the Patterson School assigns a reading list to its students. The list has a twofold purpose: to familiarize students with important issues in international affairs, and to ground them in the most important recent books on international politics.
Colombia's Makled Decision Places Regional Priorities Over U.S. Ties
By: Eliot Brockner | BriefingColombian authorities have decided to extradite Venezuelan national Walid Makled to Venezuela to face murder and drug-trafficking charges in his native country, rather than in the U.S., where he is also wanted on drug-trafficking charges. Though the decision appears to be final, the political implications of his extradition from Colombia have just begun to ripple around the region and in Washington.
Saudi-Iranian Tensions Widening Into Sunni-Shiite Cold War
By: Saurav Jha | BriefingThe Saudi intervention in Bahrain has upped the ante in the Saudi-Iranian cold war, crystallizing it into a wider Sunni-Shiite schism in the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia has reportedly invoked a treaty with Sunni-dominated Pakistan to secure troops to stabilize Bahrain and its own eastern provinces. Riyadh has also asked Turkey to make it clear to Iran that interference in the Gulf states will not be tolerated.
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The New Rules: Long-Term U.S. Presence in Afghanistan a Mistake
By: Thomas P.M. Barnett | ColumnAfghanistan is a natural crossroads that nonetheless remains a place where all the transcontinental railroads seem to end. It is bounded on all sides by up-and-coming powers that are highly incentivized to see it stabilized. So why is the U.S. so convinced that it is the only great power that can take ownership of this situation, especially when there are so many other more important relationships to manage?
Global Insights: Decision Time for Iraq on U.S. Military Presence
By: Richard Weitz | ColumnCurrently, the most urgent issue in relations between the United States and Iraq is how many American troops will remain in that country after the end of this year and what roles they will perform. In an effort to galvanize progress on this issue, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, visited Iraq on April 22 bearing a warning: Decision time is now.
India Courts a Distant Kazakhstan
By: Rupakjyoti Borah | BriefingIndian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's recent visit to Kazakhstan marked an important step forward in ties between the two nations. Relations have gained momentum since January 2009, when Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev was the chief guest at India's Republic Day celebrations. Although trade between the two countries is disappointing at best, ties with Kazakhstan have taken on crucial importance for India.
World Citizen: For Syria's Allies, Attacking Israel Could Pay Off
By: Frida Ghitis | ColumnThe worsening crisis in Syria threatens the regime of President Bashar al-Assad as well as the balance of power in the Middle East, with damaging results for Iran and conceivably disastrous consequences for its allies. Given the magnitude of the stakes for these players, one can argue that it would make strategic sense from their perspective to try to lure Israel into a more intense armed conflict.
Thailand's Domestic Politics Drives Cambodian Border Clash
By: Sebastian Strangio | BriefingOn first glance, the border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand appear to be yet another manifestation of a deeply rooted disagreement between the two neighbors. But some analysts say the conflict reflects Thailand's domestic political turmoil. Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva finds himself increasingly beholden to the demands of the military, which maintains hawkish designs on Preah Vihear.
Canada's NDP Surges Ahead of Elections
By: Daragh McDowell | BriefingCanada's May 2 parliamentary elections were expected to be a dull affair, with the only question being whether Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper would achieve his long-coveted majority. But a late surge by the left-wing New Democratic Party -- Canada's perennial third party -- now threatens to push the opposition Liberals into a humiliating third-place finish and reconfigure Canadian politics.
The Realist Prism: Reconciling the New Obama Doctrine With the Old
By: Nikolas Gvosdev | ColumnThe run-up to the Libya operation created a great deal of buzz in the foreign policy community about the emergence of a new "Obama Doctrine," one that provides a rationale for the use of U.S. military force to achieve humanitarian ends. But President Barack Obama himself recognizes that he cannot completely dispense with the old Obama Doctrine, which he articulated when he was a candidate for office.
Lean, Mean Fighting Machine Foreign Policy by Douglas MacGregor
Lean, Mean Fighting Machine
Foreign Policy by Douglas MacGregor
Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft, said it best, "When waves of change appear, you can duck under the wave, stand fast against the wave, or, better yet, surf the wave." Today, the same tsunami-like wave of debt that threatens to sweep away American economic prosperity is headed for America's defense establishment. President Barack Obama signaled as much with his April 13 budget address, in which he warned: "Just as we must find more savings in domestic programs, we must do the same in defense."
Foreign Policy by Douglas MacGregor
Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft, said it best, "When waves of change appear, you can duck under the wave, stand fast against the wave, or, better yet, surf the wave." Today, the same tsunami-like wave of debt that threatens to sweep away American economic prosperity is headed for America's defense establishment. President Barack Obama signaled as much with his April 13 budget address, in which he warned: "Just as we must find more savings in domestic programs, we must do the same in defense."
Budget deal will only save a fraction of promised $38B
Budget deal will only save a fraction of promised $38B
Afghanistan Study Group by Edward Kenney
The supposedly “historic” 2011 budget deal, which barely avoided a federal shutdown, will only save a fraction of the promised $38 billion. Once defense spending and funding for the wars are included in this calculation, federal spending will have actually increased this year. That’s right, defense spending plus the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya will cause federal spending to go up in 2011. Keep this in mind when assessing the 2012 budget proposals on defense.
Afghanistan Study Group by Edward Kenney
The supposedly “historic” 2011 budget deal, which barely avoided a federal shutdown, will only save a fraction of the promised $38 billion. Once defense spending and funding for the wars are included in this calculation, federal spending will have actually increased this year. That’s right, defense spending plus the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya will cause federal spending to go up in 2011. Keep this in mind when assessing the 2012 budget proposals on defense.
Growing List of Conservatives including Coulter and Norquist Oppose War in Afghanistan
Growing List of Conservatives including Coulter and Norquist Oppose War in Afghanistan
Afghanistan Study Group
Please help us by forwarding this email to your conservative friends.
Last week, unfortunately, House Speaker John Boehner asked President Obama to “explain” how withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan in July would not “undermine the tenuous progress we’ve made thus far.” Speaker Boehner also asserted that “[a]ny draw-down of U.S. troops must be based on the conditions on the ground, not on political calculations.”
Afghanistan Study Group
Please help us by forwarding this email to your conservative friends.
Last week, unfortunately, House Speaker John Boehner asked President Obama to “explain” how withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan in July would not “undermine the tenuous progress we’ve made thus far.” Speaker Boehner also asserted that “[a]ny draw-down of U.S. troops must be based on the conditions on the ground, not on political calculations.”
New Poll Finds Record # of Americans Against War in Afghanistan: Obama and Boehner Still Leading from the Rear
New Poll Finds Record # of Americans Against War in Afghanistan: Obama and Boehner Still Leading from the Rear
Afghanistan Study Group by Will Keola Thomas
A Washington Post / ABC News poll released this week found that a record 49% of Americans disapprove of President Obama’s handling of the war in Afghanistan. Opposition to American involvement in the conflict is increasing more rapidly than ever before. Public disapproval has shot up 8 points since the previous WaPo / ABC poll was taken just three months ago.
Afghanistan Study Group by Will Keola Thomas
A Washington Post / ABC News poll released this week found that a record 49% of Americans disapprove of President Obama’s handling of the war in Afghanistan. Opposition to American involvement in the conflict is increasing more rapidly than ever before. Public disapproval has shot up 8 points since the previous WaPo / ABC poll was taken just three months ago.
Why a Dog Is More Qualified for Congress Than Robert Hurt By David Swanson
Why a Dog Is More Qualified for Congress Than Robert Hurt
By David Swanson
http://warisacrime.org/node/
By David Swanson
http://warisacrime.org/node/
Recent Papers from CATO
BRIEFING PAPER
Fannie, Freddie, and the Subprime Mortgage Market
By Mark A. Calabria
FOREIGN POLICY BRIEFING
Beyond Symbolism? The U.S. Nuclear Disarmament Agenda and Its Implications for Chinese and Indian Nuclear Policy
By Lavina Lee
POLICY ANALYSIS
Bankrupt: Entitlements and the Federal Budget
By Michael D. Tanner
The Case for Gridlock
By Marcus E. Ethridge
CATO JOURNAL
Volume 31, Number 1, Winter 2011
Fannie, Freddie, and the Subprime Mortgage Market
By Mark A. Calabria
FOREIGN POLICY BRIEFING
Beyond Symbolism? The U.S. Nuclear Disarmament Agenda and Its Implications for Chinese and Indian Nuclear Policy
By Lavina Lee
POLICY ANALYSIS
Bankrupt: Entitlements and the Federal Budget
By Michael D. Tanner
The Case for Gridlock
By Marcus E. Ethridge
WHITE PAPER
Bad Medicine: A Guide to the Real Costs and Consequences of the New Health Care Law
By Michael D. Tanner
Bad Medicine: A Guide to the Real Costs and Consequences of the New Health Care Law
By Michael D. Tanner
CATO JOURNAL
Volume 31, Number 1, Winter 2011
Al Jazeera: One Organization, Two Messages By David Pollock
Al Jazeera: One Organization, Two Messages
By David Pollock
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PlurkUnderwater Mortgages a Threat to Recovery; Expect No More Than 3% Growth Until Housing Recovers
Underwater Mortgages a Threat to Recovery; Expect No More Than 3% Growth Until Housing Recovers
In a Technical Note on GDP Bloomberg reports "First quarter Advance Real GDP Real GDP increased 1.8 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2011, following an increase of 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010. The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter reflected a sharp upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, a larger decrease in federal government spending, and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports that were partly offset by a sharp upturn in inventory investment."Underwater Mortgages a Threat to Recovery
Given the renewed housing bust what might one expect going forward?
A senior economist for Wells Fargo believes it is unreasonable to expect more than 3% growth going forward as long as housing remains deeply underwater.
Please consider Phoenix’s Underwater Mortgages Show Weakness in Housing Threatens Recovery
Why the Planes Were Not Intercepted on 9/11
Why the Planes Were Not Intercepted on 9/11
Of the many unanswered questions about the attacks of September 11, one of the most important is: Why were none of the four planes intercepted? A rough answer is that the failure of the US air defenses can be traced to a number of factors and people.Three Cups of a Flawed Hero from Foreign Policy In Focus There are limits to Greg Mortenson's model of change.
Three Cups of a Flawed Hero
There are limits to Greg Mortenson's model of change.
Time to wise up on North Korea
Time to wise up on North Korea
Four "elder" statesmen - headed by former United States president Jimmy Carter - were not granted the courtesy of a meeting with Kim Jong-il during their visit this week to North Korea. The Dear Leader did send them a message, though, which was triumphantly touted by the group as a possible breakthrough in non-stop North-South confrontation. Wisdom, it seems, does not necessarily come with age. - Donald Kirk (Apr 29, '11)
US Hueys over Yemen
US Hueys over Yemen
Washington has been arming and training Yemeni dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh's security forces in the midst of a democracy struggle - see those new Huey choppers flying over protesters - as part of an ongoing Pentagon program to supply and train government forces. Yemenis - more than two-thirds under the age of 24 - are likely to remember for a very long time which side the United States took in their freedom struggle. - Nick Turse (Apr 29, '11)
BOOK REVIEW : Conservative reappraisal of the Afghan war
BOOK REVIEW : Conservative reappraisal of the Afghan war
The Wrong War: Grit, Strategy, and the Way Out of Afghanistan by Bing West The United States war effort in Afghanistan is failing, says this authoritative - and usually supportive - voice on US military affairs. While implacable Afghan resentment of foreigners is undermining the counter-insurgency, inter-ethnic divisions are killing "Afghanization". Throw in the financial crisis, an apathetic American public and the vague objectives of Washington's revolving-door leadership, and you have a recipe for quagmire. - Brian M Downing (Apr 29, '11)
‘Mr. Y’ and the Decline of the American Empire Pentagon insiders challenge the militarist paradigm by Justin Raimondo, April 29, 2011
‘Mr. Y’ and the Decline of the American Empire
Pentagon insiders challenge the militarist paradigm
by Justin Raimondo, April 29, 2011
Yet they do manage to acknowledge what is obvious to everyone: that the entrepreneurial spirit that built America’s great wealth is in some pretty sad shape:
"Many of us have forgotten that rewards must be earned, there is no ‘free ride’ – that fair competition and hard work bring with them a true sense of accomplishment. We can no longer expect the ingenuity and labor of past generations to sustain our growth as a nation for generations to come."
"Many of us have forgotten that rewards must be earned, there is no ‘free ride’ – that fair competition and hard work bring with them a true sense of accomplishment. We can no longer expect the ingenuity and labor of past generations to sustain our growth as a nation for generations to come."
Arab Pipelineistan's High Stakes By: Pepe Escobar | Asia Times
Arab Pipelineistan's High Stakes
By: Pepe Escobar | Asia Times
By: Pepe Escobar | Asia Times
What's Wrong With America's Economy? The Economist
Angst in the United States
What's wrong with America's economy?
Its politicians are failing to tackle the country’s real problems. Believe it or not, they could learn from Europe
Was the War in Libya a Mistake? By: MICAH ZENKO | Foreign Policy
Think Again: Libya
More than a month after the first bombs fell on Muammar al-Qaddafi's forces, the assumptions that led the United States into the war have mostly been proven wrong -- and a strategy to end it is still nowhere in sight.
BY MICAH ZENKO
Turkey Joins Effort to Spur Change in Syria By: Marc Champion and Nour Malas | The Wall Street Journal
Turkey Joins Effort to Spur Change in Syria
By: Marc Champion and Nour Malas | The Wall Street JournalTurkey sent a delegation to Syria to advise the government on implementing rapid reforms, as nations scrambled to find a way to convince President Bashar al-Assad to abandon a military crackdown on protesters against his regime.
The West's Silence Over Bahrain Smacks of Double Standards By: Hooshang Amirahmadi and Kaveh Afrasiabi | The Guardian
The West's Silence Over Bahrain Smacks of Double Standards
By: Hooshang Amirahmadi and Kaveh Afrasiabi | The GuardianThe absence of pressure on Saudi Arabia and Bahrain will only deepen the gulf of distrust between Iran and the west.
Putin Eclipses Medvedev in Run-Up to 2012 Election By: Sergei L. Loiko | Los Angeles Times
Putin Eclipses Medvedev in Run-Up to 2012 Election
By: Sergei L. Loiko | Los Angeles TimesPutin, a former two-time president, appears to have gained the upper hand in a fierce power struggle with his protege, and analysts say the presidency his for the taking.
The prize, perils and price of China’s plan
Turkey: Inspiring or insidious
| FT.com - Analysis |
FT Newsmine 4/29
Financial
The Short View (James Mackintosh) on the dollar, April 29
"The [Federal Reserve's] own measure of the dollar in real terms against America’s main trading partners shows it ended March at its lowest since it first traded freely in 1973."On the dollar, April 28
"On Wednesday, the Fed said QE2 would end as planned in June, but also maintained it was in no rush to tighten policy. This stance contrasts sharply with many other central banks and explains why, since June, the dollar has fallen 16.6 per cent against its main rivals on a trade-weighted basis. The dollar index sits just 3.5 per cent above its record low plumbed in April 2008.""As the dollar has stumbled, so currencies with higher official interest rates, such as the Brazilian real, Norwegian krone and Australian dollar have surged, with the latter hitting a 28-year high of $1.0852 on Wednesday."
The Short View (James Mackintosh) on seasonal market movements, April 28
"In the UK, a study by Sven Bouman of Aegon and Ben Jacobsen of Erasmus University showed shares did far less well from May to September than in the rest of the year right back to 1694. Since the FTSE 100 was created in 1984, it has fallen from the start of May to end-September half the time, and only just scraped a positive average return in the period."On the S&P 500, April 27
"The S&P 500 index was 0.9 per cent up at 1347 by midday in New York and up 7.1 per cent this year. The rally this year has been led by the energy sector, which has risen 16 per cent, followed by the industrial sector and healthcare, which are both up 10 per cent. The benchmark has nearly doubled from its low of 676 set in March 2009, during the financial crisis, but is still 14 per cent below its all-time high of 1,565.15 reached in October 2007."On Europe's rising debt yields, April 27
"Greek bond yields soared by more than 1 percentage point to fresh euro-era highs as Athens failed to meet deficit targets and an adviser to German chancellor Angela Merkel warned the country would have to restructure its debts. Greek two-year bond yields, which move inversely to bond prices, jumped 133 basis points to 24.34 per cent after it was revealed that the country’s budget deficit for 2010 was 10.5 per cent. Greek two-year yields have jumped about 10 percentage points in the past month. The deficit was above the government’s February estimate of 9.4 per cent, although below the 2009 shortfall of 15.4 per cent of gross domestic product, the EU’s statistics office in Luxembourg said.""The cost of borrowing for Ireland and Portugal also rose to euro-era highs because of rising concerns that all three peripheral eurozone economies will be forced to restructure their debts. Irish two-year bond yields rose 75bp to 12.09 per cent and Portuguese yields jumped 21bp to 11.46 per cent."
"The yield difference, or spread, between Greek 10-year bonds and German securities of a similar maturity widened to 1,208bp, the most since data were first collected in 1998. The spread has widened 260bp this month. The spread between Portuguese and German 10-year bonds also widened to as much as 635bp, the most since before the introduction of the euro, while Irish spreads over Germany increased to 720bp."
On Brazil's bond issuance, April 27
"Brazilian bond issuance has hit a record high this year, helped by overseas sales from domestic companies trying to tap lower offshore interest rates, according to figures from Dealogic, the data provider. Dealogic said the total value of bond issuance between January 1 and April 26 rose to $18.8bn, in about 35 deals, compared with $15.5bn a year earlier, in spite of government efforts to clamp down on some forms of external credit."On global high-yield bond issuance, April 23
"Global high yield bond volumes have reached $146.5bn to date this year – a 34.4 per cent increase over the same period last year and the highest year-to-date total on record. In Europe the jump has been especially sharp – a near doubling – with year-to-date issuance reaching $33.5bn, up 77.4 per cent on the same period last year, said data provider Dealogic. March has been the busiest month on record for the high yield markets."Asia
On Japan's economy, April 29
"Japanese factory output suffered a record decline in March as last month’s tsunami crippled supply chains across the world’s third-largest economy and prompted the central bank to cut its growth forecast for the fiscal year. Government statistics showed that production fell 15.3 per cent in March from February, the biggest fall since records began in 1953, and worse than analysts expected. They came amid a flurry of disappointing data this week from both the supply and demand sides. Household spending fell 8.5 per cent, underlining the immediate effect of the natural disaster. This prompted the Bank of Japan to reduce its forecast for this fiscal year to March by a percentage point to 0.6 per cent."On China's foreign direct investment, April 26
"In the six months to the end of March 2011, Chinese businesses invested $64.3bn in Europe in acquisitions, trade deals and loan agreements. This was more than double the comparable figure over the previous 11 quarters. Engineering and manufacturing have been a key focus, according to London bank Grisons Peak."On China's investment in Brazil, April 26
"In 2009, according to the Brazil China chamber of trade and industry, Chinese investment in Brazil was worth just $386m. In 2010, that number ballooned to an estimated $19bn. Most of that – about 85 per cent – was commodity-related."Miscellaneous
Martin Wolf on the frequency of war, April 27
"While the number of countries experiencing civil war is in the mid-30s, battle deaths have fallen from an average of 164,000 a year in the 1980s to 42,000 in the 2000s."Lex on economic progress in developing nations, April 26
"More steel, mobile phones and concrete were purchased or produced in 2010 in developing than developed economies. Car production was just about evenly divided. And at purchasing power parity (PPP), non-rich countries accounted for 48 per cent of global GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund. But PPP measures, which are supposed to adjust for unrealistic exchange rates, flatter the economies of poorer lands. In effect, the adjustments value services about equally everywhere, but these generally cost much less in poor countries. At market exchange rates, the non-rich share of world GDP comes to something like 38 per cent.""Back in 1990, the advanced economies accounted for 69 per cent of global GDP (in PPP terms). And in the past eight years, real GDP in advanced economies increased by a mere 14 per cent, while developing nations grew by 69 per cent."
On US housing prices, April 26
"Prices of single-family houses in the 20 largest US cities fell 0.2 from January to February on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. The decline was less steep than economists’ expectations of a 0.4 per cent fall, but left the index barely above its April 2009 trough. Prices recorded their biggest annual drop since November 2009, falling 3.3 per cent from February 2010, in line with expectations."On Latin America's trading relationships, April 26
"In 1999, trade betwen Latin America and China was a mere $8bn. By 2009, according to UN figures, it had grown 16 times to $130bn. By comparison, bilateral trade with the US rose by just a half over the same period.""Developed markets remain mired in sluggish growth and high debt. Meanwhile, emerging economies are surging ahead; they now account for three-quarters of global economic growth, according to the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)."
"In 2006, before the financial crisis erupted, 9 per cent of Brazil’s exports went to the other Bric countries – Russia, India and China. By 2009 that had almost doubled to 17 per cent. As a result, the Brazilian economy boomed."
On changes in Latin America's trading relationships, April 26
"A decade ago, Asia accounted for roughly 5 per cent of the region’s trade, according the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB).""Even friends – and neighbours – appear to be turning away. The US’s most important trading bloc, the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), is nearly two decades old and is starting to look its age. The share of trade between the three signatories – the US, Mexico and Canada – has fallen by nearly 10 per cent over the past decade: from 55 per cent of the countries’ global exports in 1999 to 46 per cent in 2009."
Focus on safety at Brazil nuclear plant after Japan
Focus on safety at Brazil nuclear plant after Japan
Angra Dos Reis, Brazil (AFP) April 27, 2011 -
Brazil's Angra dos Reis bay is a tropical paradise that attracts droves of tourists each year. But it is also sharply in focus as the home of the nation's only nuclear power plant. Brazilian officials insist things are safe at the two pressurized water reactors, Angra I and Angra II, which face the sea some 150 kilometers (90 miles) west of Rio de Janeiro. But security improvements have ... more
Angra Dos Reis, Brazil (AFP) April 27, 2011 -
Brazil's Angra dos Reis bay is a tropical paradise that attracts droves of tourists each year. But it is also sharply in focus as the home of the nation's only nuclear power plant. Brazilian officials insist things are safe at the two pressurized water reactors, Angra I and Angra II, which face the sea some 150 kilometers (90 miles) west of Rio de Janeiro. But security improvements have ... more
Taxing China's Assets
Taxing China's Assets
Joseph Gagnon and Gary HufbauerFor years, officials in Washington have complained loudly about Beijing's efforts to manipulate its currency. One novel option to stem the practice is both within international rules and would likely work: taxing the income on Chinese holdings of U.S. financial assets. Read
The Black Swan of Cairo
The Black Swan of Cairo
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark BlythThe upheavals in the Middle East have much in common with the recent global financial crisis: both were plausible worst-case scenarios whose probability was dramatically underestimated. When policymakers try to suppress economic or political volatility, they only increase the risk of blowups. Read
The Post-Islamist Revolutions
The Post-Islamist Revolutions
Asef BayatScare-mongering Arab dictators have warned that the current wave of revolutions are being run by fundamentalists. The truth is they are post-Islamist -- and may pave the way for democracies that respect both religion and citizens' rights. Read
Growth data cast doubt over recovery
India shuns US in $11bn fighter deal
Thursday, April 28, 2011
David Petraeus, A Threat to CIA Analysis
David Petraeus, A Threat to CIA Analysis
Ray McGovern, Consortium News: "Petraeus already has a record as someone who looks at skeptical CIA analysts as gnats to be swatted away before they bite. That is why he relegated them to strap-hanger status during the key decision-making process in late 2009 on what to do about Afghanistan. When Obama expressed doubts about the value of a major escalation in Afghanistan, Petraeus assured him that he and his generals had it all figured out, that 33,000 additional troops would do the trick. CIA analysts weren't even assigned to do a formal National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which normally is a de rigueur step before making any significant presidential decision like a large-scale escalation of a war."
Read the Article
Ray McGovern, Consortium News: "Petraeus already has a record as someone who looks at skeptical CIA analysts as gnats to be swatted away before they bite. That is why he relegated them to strap-hanger status during the key decision-making process in late 2009 on what to do about Afghanistan. When Obama expressed doubts about the value of a major escalation in Afghanistan, Petraeus assured him that he and his generals had it all figured out, that 33,000 additional troops would do the trick. CIA analysts weren't even assigned to do a formal National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which normally is a de rigueur step before making any significant presidential decision like a large-scale escalation of a war."
Read the Article
Simon Johnson | Arrogance and Authority
Simon Johnson | Arrogance and Authority
Simon Johnson, Project Syndicate: "The real cost of the crisis is not measured by the profit and loss statement of any central bank - or by whether or not the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), run by the Treasury Department, made or lost money on its various activities. The cost is eight million jobs in the US alone, with employment falling 6% from its peak and - in a major departure from other post-1945 recessions - remaining 5% below that peak today, 31 months after the crisis broke in earnest. The cost is also the increase in net federal government debt held by the private sector - the most accurate measure of true government indebtedness."
Read the Article
Simon Johnson, Project Syndicate: "The real cost of the crisis is not measured by the profit and loss statement of any central bank - or by whether or not the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), run by the Treasury Department, made or lost money on its various activities. The cost is eight million jobs in the US alone, with employment falling 6% from its peak and - in a major departure from other post-1945 recessions - remaining 5% below that peak today, 31 months after the crisis broke in earnest. The cost is also the increase in net federal government debt held by the private sector - the most accurate measure of true government indebtedness."
Read the Article
The American Middle Class Under Stress
April 28, 2011
The American Middle Class Under Stress
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More People Think The Economy Is In A Depression Than Think The Economy Is Growing
More People Think The Economy Is In A Depression Than Think The Economy Is Growing
More people think the economy is in a depression than think the economy is growing.
Here's a look at the results of a new Gallup poll:
2016: when China overtakes the US After more than a century as the world's largest economy, the US will need to adjust to its declining global hegemony
2016: when China overtakes the US
After more than a century as the world's largest economy, the US will need to adjust to its declining global hegemony
Growing China Not Seeking Global Empire
Mark Weisbrot, The Guardian
First, let's consider the economics. China has been the world's fastest growing economy for more than three decades, growing 17-fold in real (inflation-adjusted) terms since 1980. It is worth emphasising that most of this record growth took place (1980-2000) while the rest of the developing world was doing quite badly by implementing neoliberal policy changes – indiscriminate opening to trade and capital flows, increasingly independent central banks, tighter (and often pro-cyclical) fiscal and monetary policies, and the abandonment of...
First, let's consider the economics. China has been the world's fastest growing economy for more than three decades, growing 17-fold in real (inflation-adjusted) terms since 1980. It is worth emphasising that most of this record growth took place (1980-2000) while the rest of the developing world was doing quite badly by implementing neoliberal policy changes – indiscriminate opening to trade and capital flows, increasingly independent central banks, tighter (and often pro-cyclical) fiscal and monetary policies, and the abandonment of...
Why China’s Crackdown is Selective
Why China's Crackdown Is Selective
Minxin Pei, The Diplomat
For a one-party state that tolerates practically no open defiance of its authority, Beijing's gentle handling of hundreds of striking truckers in Shanghai who had paralyzed operations at one of China's largest container ports seems an anomaly. Instead of sending in riot police to break up the blockade last week, the authorities in Shanghai agreed to reduce fees levied on the truckers, who were angry over the charges and rising fuel prices.
For a one-party state that tolerates practically no open defiance of its authority, Beijing's gentle handling of hundreds of striking truckers in Shanghai who had paralyzed operations at one of China's largest container ports seems an anomaly. Instead of sending in riot police to break up the blockade last week, the authorities in Shanghai agreed to reduce fees levied on the truckers, who were angry over the charges and rising fuel prices.
The Kind of Israel the Middle East Needs More Of * Paul Pillar
What Really Angers Arabs About Israel
Paul Pillar, The National Interest
The continued demand in Middle Eastern streets for greater political rights is leading to ever more rhetorical scrambling by Israel, and by those in this country eager to come to Israel's ostensible defense (but who really are defending a certain set of Israeli policies). The backdrop to the scrambling is, as I have described before, a threefold Israeli worry about the regional political upheaval. First, increased popular sovereignty in Arab states gives heightened attention to the lack of popular sovereignty for Palestinian Arabs living under Israeli occupation. Second,...
The continued demand in Middle Eastern streets for greater political rights is leading to ever more rhetorical scrambling by Israel, and by those in this country eager to come to Israel's ostensible defense (but who really are defending a certain set of Israeli policies). The backdrop to the scrambling is, as I have described before, a threefold Israeli worry about the regional political upheaval. First, increased popular sovereignty in Arab states gives heightened attention to the lack of popular sovereignty for Palestinian Arabs living under Israeli occupation. Second,...
Dollars, BRICS And The China Trap
China's Plan to Dethrone the Dollar
Sudipto Mundle, Times of IndiaChina, along with the BRICS nations, have a long term plan to dethrone the dollar.
The FDIC’s Resolution Problem from The Baseline Scenario by Simon Johnson
The FDIC’s Resolution Problem
By Simon Johnson. Links to the articles mentioned below are available here: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/28/the-problem-with-the-f-d-i-c-s-powers/Tsunami at Israel's Edge from The Washington Note by Steve Clemons
Tsunami at Israel's Edge
Behind the scenes, Fatah and Hamas have been working and talking for years about terms of reconciliation. But their efforts were stymied by both their own suspicions and demands of each other -- but also by Omar Suleiman who was the anointed Egyptian peacemaker but who worked behind the scenes with the US to make sure that both sides never got to "yes" at the same time.Now, Egypt is out of the game of working on one hand to appear supportive of a Palestinian unity government while on the other hand sabotaging it on behalf of the United States, and indirectly Israel.
I've argued for some years that Israel's security arrangements in the region were a lot like a New Orleans levee -- they were working for the time being, but some day a tsunami would come and wash out parts of Israel's protection. Israel needed to see that its security and long term interests lay in working hard to revision and restructure its relationships in the region -- and the best vehicle for that was something along the lines of the Arab Peace deal offered by Saudi King Abdullah.
Now, Fatah and Hamas are reconciling. America and some other nations will no doubt threaten to withhold aid and support -- making themselves less relevant to the decisions made by Palestinian leaders but also creating some pressure for them.
But this is not an age where Europe and the US are calling all the shots any longer. In this case, the boutique rich nations of the GCC, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, and China, even India -- may emerge as the new lifeline of financial and political support for a reorganized and somewhat repurposed Palestine.
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the one person in Israel who could have really sold a real deal on a two state solution to his people. But he seems to have decided against this route -- and now we are seeing the political marketplace reaction to his and his government's intransigence and their lack of vision about new long term political and security relationships in Israel's neighborhood.
The tsunami that Israel will need to deal with may be here -- and it's vital that Netanyahu and others recalculate their game plan while this wave of change is sweeping through the region.
-- Steve Clemons
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