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 Can 6000 years of dictatorship ever end. |
Cairo (UPI) Jan 27, 2011 The sudden downfall of Tunisia's repressive regime Jan. 14 in an explosion of people power has triggered a similar, and potentially far more violent, eruption in Egypt, a phenomenon causing alarm among Arab rulers already grappling with succession crises. President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali's 23-year regime in Tunis was the first dictatorship in the Middle East to fall at the hands of its own people since Islamists overthrew Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi of Iran in 1979.
There have also been riots, stemming largely from economic hardship, in Algeria, Jordan and Yemen. But decades of harsh political repression could be starting to boil over across the volatile region.
It has long been understood that in the Arab world, ruled largely by monarchs or dictators backed by military might, political change is unlikely to occur through the ballot box, whether in Egypt, Algeria or Saudi Arabia.
The current tide of political protest, if sustained, poses a serious challenge for Washington.
Tunisia, like imperial Iran, was a U.S. ally. Any further regime change in the region will weaken the influence of the United States, which has supported the regimes.
U.S. power has been ebbing since President George W. Bush invaded Iraq in 2003 and toppled Saddam Hussein, triggering an Arab bloodbath, nurturing al-Qaida and eliminating a key Arab bulwark against Iran.
With Saddam out of the way, Shiite Iran's power has grown, turning Iraq into what mainstream Sunni Arabs see as an Iranian satellite. Hezbollah's growing power in Lebanon underlines Tehran's new reach.
Arab leaders no longer believe the Americans will defend them against an expansionist Iran, increasing their sense of vulnerability.
The crisis in Egypt mirrors one of the most serious political problems plaguing the Arab world: the emergence of republican dynasties.
The trend toward what the Arabs call "Tawrith," or inherited rule, began in Syria in 2000.
When President Hafez Assad died after 30 years in power he was succeeded by his son Bashar, plucked from an ophthalmology practice in London in 1994 to be groomed as head of state.
Mubarak is widely believed to be planning to install his business tycoon son, Gamal, to succeed him when he steps down or becomes incapacitated.
Polls indicate most Egyptians oppose this and the current unrest is as much about their fears regarding the succession as it is about poverty, unemployment and high food prices.
Before the current street violence erupted, Western analysts maintained that whoever succeeded Mubarak would do so with the support of the military and the all-pervasive intelligence services whose primary mission is regime survival, as it is across the Arab world.
Thus, they argued, the transitions in Egypt and elsewhere were likely to be orderly. It should be noted that the Tunisian leader threw in the towel so quickly largely because his army refused to fire on protesters.
But that is unlikely to be the case in other Arab states, where rulers lavish wealth and status on their security forces as a hedge against coups. Bashar Assad was able to succeed his father because Syria's army backed him.
Mubarak has led Egypt since October 1981, when he succeeded President Anwar Sadat, assassinated for his landmark 1979 peace agreement with Israel.
The former air force commander has been a bulwark against Iran and Islamic fundamentalists and the Americans have ignored the excesses of his regime to keep him as an ally.
But now he's 82 and in failing health, without a designated successor, and his alliance with Washington is starting wear thin as U.S. power and influence in the regions wanes.
Moammar Gadhafi in Libya seized power in September 1967 and is preparing one of his three sons to take over.
There are growing indications of a power struggle within Gadhafi's quirky regime between Old Guard hard-liners and younger moderates aligned with his rival siblings.
President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, who has been in power for nearly 33 years, is also believed to be grooming his son, Ahmed, to succeed him.
Saleh insists there will be no dynastic handover. But he faces a growing clamor for his removal of his corrupt regime following the demise of Ben Ali's rule in Tunisia.
Meantime, Saleh's digging in his heels. Where other Arab rulers are slashing food prices to head off trouble, he gave his armed forces hefty pay hikes to keep them loyal.
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