The Substitution Fallacy: Why the United States Cannot Fully Substitute Conventional for Nuclear Weapons by Elbridge Colby

This guest submission arrives from Elbridge Colby, who offered it to New Paradigms Forum in the wake of Dr. Ford's December 19, 2010, posting on conventional weapons as a potential “replacement” for nuclear ones.  Colby and Ford both participated in the November 17, 2010, conference on “Conventional Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C.  This is Colby's own take on the issue.

Elbridge Colby has served in several national security positions with the U.S. Government, most recently with the Department of Defense working on the follow-on to the START Treaty and as an expert advisor to the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission.  The views expressed in this essay are his own, and do not necessarily represent the views of any institution with which he is or has been affiliated.