University of Maryland/Zogby International: 2009 Annual Arab Public Opinion Survey

BROOKINGS INSTITUTION

5/19/09

University of Maryland/Zogby International: 2009 Annual Arab Public Opinion Survey

Shibley Telhami

Summary of Key Findings:

Attitudes Toward the President of the United States

Overall, 45% of Arabs polled have a favorable view of President Obama (50% outside Egypt), 28% are neutral, 24% have negative views. Remarkably, 79% of Saudis have a favorable view of President Obama and only 14% have negative views. Consistently, in all six countries, the negative views of the President are remarkably low.

These favorable views of President Obama, while remarkable in comparison to previous American presidents, do not yet indicate enthusiasm. Those whose opinion of the President are “very positive” are only 11%. When asked in an open question about leaders they admire most in the world, few choose President Obama as one of those leaders.

Views of President Obama appear to be at least in part personal, and not simply a reflection of “thank God it’s not Bush” attitudes. To be sure, President George W. Bush still shows up as the leader of the list of the two most disliked leaders, with 61%. But when asked about attitudes toward Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, more Arabs have negative views of her than positive views. Overall, 45% have negative views, 24% are neutral, and 22% have positive views.

Attitudes Toward the United States

The most important consequence of their favorable views of President Obama appears to be expressed hope for American foreign policy in the Middle East. After a few weeks of the Obama administration, a majority in all countries, 51% (59% outside Egypt) expressed hopefulness about US Middle East policy, 28% were neutral, while only 14% were discouraged.

Expressed hopeful views, however, did not translate into immediate significant reevaluation of attitudes toward the US. 77% of Arabs still identify the United States as one of the two biggest threats they face (the other being Israel). But this is an improvement over 2008, when 88% of Arabs polled so identified the United States. Favorable views of the United States have not changed much since 2008, with the most important change being the decline of the number of people who have “very unfavorable views” of the US, from 64% in 2008 to 46% in 2009.

Among the issues that are central to their assessment of Obama administration foreign policy, Iraq and the Arab-Israeli issue lead the list. What is striking, however, is that the Afghanistan-Pakistan issue is considerably lower on the list, with only 3% identifying it as the most central issue. It is also noteworthy that third on the list, with 16%, is the expressed American attitude toward the Arab-Muslim world, followed by human rights, which is particularly strong in Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates.

Attitudes Toward the Arab-Israeli Conflict

Unlike the case of the 2006 Israeli-Lebanese war, when most Arabs believed Israel lost the war and Hezbollah won, most Arabs polled believe that Israel was the biggest winner of the Gaza war in 2008-2009, and that the Palestinian people were the biggest losers.

Yet, in their assessment of Israeli power, after the Gaza war, only 11% think Israel is stronger (compared with 16% in 2008) while 44% believe it is weaker and another 44% are neutral.

In the division among the Palestinians, 49% (39% outside Egypt) say they sympathize with both Fatah and Hamas to some extent. 22% sympathize with Hamas (33% outside Egypt) and 12% sympathize with Fatah (14% outside of Egypt). It is noteworthy that while in every one of the six counties polled Hamas receives more sympathy than Fatah. There is particularly strong sympathy for Hamas in Jordan (68%), in Saudi Arabia (46%), and in Lebanon (43%).

74% of Arabs polled (61% outside Egypt) prefer to see a Palestinian national unity government, 12% (22% outside Egypt) prefer a Hamas government, and 7% (11% outside Egypt) prefer a Fatah government.

73% of those polled continue to be in principal supportive of a two state solution based on the 1967 borders. But the number of those opposed increased from 19% in 2008 to 25% in 2009. A majority (60%) believe that if the two state solution collapses, there would be an intense conflict for years to come.

Pessimism about the prospects of Israeli-Palestinian peace continued with 50% saying it will never happen. At the same time, there was an increase in the number of people who expressed the belief that peace was inevitable, but will take more than five years (from 27% in 2008 to 40% in 2009).

Attitudes on Iraq

65% of Arabs polled (compared with 61% in 2008) believe that if the US withdraws its forces from Iraq as planned by the end of 2011, Iraqis will find a way to bridge their differences. 72% believe Iraqis are worse off than they were before the Iraq war, but this is a decrease from 82% in 2008.

Attitudes Toward Iran

There are indications the criticism of Iran, particularly in Morocco and Egypt, is having some impact. 13% identify Iran as one of their two biggest threats (compared with 7% in 2008), and outside Egypt, 20% see Iran as one of the two biggest threats to them, compared with 11% in 2008.

58% believe Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, compared with 39% in 2008. Still, 53% believe that Iran has the right to pursue its nuclear program, while 40% believe Iran should be pressured to stop its program. But this marks a significant change from 2008, when only 22% supported international pressure to stop Iran’s nuclear program.

If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, 46% believe that the outcome for the Middle East would be more negative, while 29% believe it would be more positive. Only 29% said the outcome would be negative in 2008, while 44% said it would be more positive.

Attitudes on Global Leadership

The attacks on Hezbollah’s leader Hasan Nasrallah, especially in Egypt and Morocco, appear to be having an impact. In an open question to identify the leader they admire most outside their own countries, only 6% identify Nasrallah (in contrast with 2008, when he led with 26%). However, he maintains solid popularity in Jordan (21%). The net winner is Hugo Chavez, president of Venezuela, who was identified as the most admired leader with 24% of those polled (compared with only 4% in 2008).

In a world where there is only one superpower, the preferred country to play that role remains France, 23% (31% outside Egypt). The United States remained far behind with 8% (same as last year). The big surprise is the rise of Germany as a preferred leader, with 23% preferring it (but only 18% outside of Egypt), which constituted nearly doubling of its percentages from 2008. While Israel and the United States remained at the top of the list of the two states that are perceived to be most threatening, and Iran remained in third place, it was notable that China was identified by 9% as one of the two most threatening states.

Media Trends

The use of the internet continued to grow with 36% stating that they use the internet at least several times a week and only 38% stating that they never use the internet (compared with 52% in 2008). Overall, al-Jazeera TV maintains its lead as the first choice for international news, with 55% of those polled (compared with 53% in 2008) while al-Arabiyya TV also roughly maintained its share. However, the picture varied dramatically from country to country, with al-Jazeera losing share (from 49% in 2008 to 39% in 2009) outside of Egypt, and Moroccan TV increasingly viewed in Morocco.
NOTE: To view the PowerPoint presentation containing the data of this survey, please click HERE. It may take a moment to load. Survey conducted April-May 2009 in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia (KSA) and UAE. http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2009/0519_arab_opinion/2009_arab_public_opinion_poll.pdf