Obama should tell Israel to face facts By Roula Khalaf

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Obama should tell Israel to face facts

By Roula Khalaf

Published: January 19 2009

For the past year the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas has negotiated with Israel on a peace settlement, knowing full well that nothing would come out of it. Why bother? Palestinian officials insisted a "process" was worth pursuing if only to hand the new American administration something to work with as soon as it takes office.

Barack Obama will be dragged into the Middle East conflict from day one. Unfortunately, before he picks up a peace process, he has to manage the aftermath of a devastating Gaza crisis, where a fragile ceasefire needs urgent American attention, an enraged Middle East urgently needs calm, and America's sinking image needs urgent damage control.

During Israel's 22-day offensive in Gaza, Mr Obama said very little beyond expressing concern about civilian casualties and underlining US commitment to peace. But unless he is planning to adopt a different attitude from the outgoing administration, the Middle East can brace for more bloodshed.

There have been many surreal moments over the past three weeks. One of the strangest was watching Condoleezza Rice on her last day in office as secretary of state signing a deal with Tzipi Livni, the Israeli foreign minister, and promising US assistance to curb the smuggling of weapons to Hamas in Gaza.

The memorandum of understanding made it easier for Israel to claim that it had met one of the war's main objectives and so wrap up its offensive. But as they stood in Washington congratulating each other, both officials seemed oblivious to the fact that they were making a deal about an illegal trade on someone else's border – Egypt in this case. The next day, an Egyptian official described the memorandum as "fictional".

Which brings us to one of the most important aspects of a new US approach to the region: recognition of reality. Israel may convince its public that Hamas is a thing of the past. Israelis may even buy into the claim of Ehud Olmert, the prime minister, that Hamas is the enemy of Gazans and Israel is their true friend.

But the reality is that however belligerent and unpleasant Hamas's policies may be, its popular support will not evaporate, and the organisation itself will not disappear.

So if the Obama administration wants to help Israel find security, its advice must be to face reality. Luckily for Mr Obama, there is a blueprint that recognises this and which can consolidate the ceasefire: an Egyptian initiative with which Israel played along for a few days then in effect ignored by declaring a unilateral ceasefire instead of one negotiated with Hamas, through Cairo.

Both Israel and Hamas need a way out of this conflict. Israeli leaders are basking in higher approval ratings ahead of the February 10 elections, and they want to maintain the momentum. Hamas, too, will want to avoid another punishing assault on Gaza. And the Syrian regime that backs Hamas is desperate to open a new page with the Obama administration. The US, in short, has plenty of leverage to bring about a compromise.

A ceasefire, however, will not be enough. Palestinian reconciliation, between Hamas and Mr Abbas's Palestinian Authority, which was driven out of Gaza in 2007, is the third element in the Egyptian plan – but the most important. If the US backs reconciliation instead of promoting division, as the Bush administration did, then it also has a chance to restore some legitimacy to the PA.

In spite of Mr Olmert's claims that his offensive has bolstered the PA and in spite of world leaders' embrace of Mr Abbas, he comes out of this war diminished. In Palestinian and Arab minds, those who appear to be resisting Israel's occupation and its military machine – even if they do it badly – gain legitimacy. The PA's legitimacy rests on the peace process, which has gone nowhere. So if and when Gaza has a sustainable ceasefire, the world community, now to be led by Mr Obama, will have to give the PA a fresh reason to exist.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009