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Monday, October 13, 2008

Governments got religion after peering into the systemic meltdown abyss: aggressive and comprehensive policy action is now likely but significant down

Governments got religion after peering into the systemic meltdown abyss: aggressive and comprehensive policy action is now likely but significant downside risks to markets will remain

Nouriel Roubini | Oct 13, 2008

I spent the weekend in Washington attending the IMF annual meetings and giving a series of talks in a variety of public and private fora (IADB talk, C-Span interview, Euro 50 Group meeting, IMF panel, etc.). After last week crash in stock markets and financial markets (and it was indeed a crash as during the week equity prices fell as much as the two day crash of 1929) policy makers finally realized the Governments got religion after peering into the systemic meltdown abyss: aggressive and comprehensive policy action is now likely but significant downside risks to markets will remain
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Nouriel Roubini | Oct 13, 2008

I spent the weekend in Washington attending the IMF annual meetings and giving a series of talks in a variety of public and private fora (IADB talk, C-Span interview, Euro 50 Group meeting, IMF panel, etc.). After last week crash in stock markets and financial markets (and it was indeed a crash as during the week equity prices fell as much as the two day crash of 1929) policy makers finally realized the risk of a systemic financial meltdown, they peered into the systemic collapse abyss a few steps in front of them and finally got religion and started announcing radical policy actions (the G7 statement, the EU leaders agreement to bailout European banks, the British plan to rescue – and partially nationalize - its banks, the European countries plans along the same lines, and the Treasury plan to ditch the initial TARP that was aimed only buying toxic assets in favor of plan to recapitalize – i.e. partially nationalize – US banks and broker dealers. While many details of these plans are fuzzy and there will be some national variants the contour of the approach are similar and close to the recommendations that I made in this forum. risk of a systemic financial meltdown, they peered into the systemic collapse abyss a few steps in front of them and finally got religion and started announcing radical policy actions (the G7 statement, the EU leaders agreement to bailout European banks, the British plan to rescue – and partially nationalize - its banks, the European countries plans along the same lines, and the Treasury plan to ditch the initial TARP that was aimed only buying toxic assets in favor of plan to recapitalize – i.e. partially nationalize – US banks and broker dealers. While many details of these plans are fuzzy and there will be some national variants the contour of the approach are similar and close to the recommendations that I made in this forum.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/254011/governments_got_religion_after_peering_into_the_systemic_meltdown_abyss_aggressive_and_comprehensive_policy_action_is_now_likely_but_significant_downside_risks_to_markets_will_remain

3 comments:

Michele Kearney said...

[opened]
Coordinated Policy Interverntion And Unlimited USD Supply: Will Money Markets Unfreeze?

* BNP: Initial market reaction after announcement of coordinated policy interventions at the G7 and the Eurozone is positive: Credit spreads start to ease:
- O/N USD LIBOR: 246bp down from 463bp (17bp pre-crisis);
- TED spread (3m LIBOR-T-bill spread) slightly down to 456 from record 463 earlier on Oct 13 after Fed announces unlimited USD liquidity (17bp pre-crisis);
- 3M USD LIBOR-OIS slightly down to 359 from 364 (10bp pre-crisis);
- 3M EUR LIBOR-OIS narrows to 182bp from 207 (10bp pre-crisis)
* Fed Board Oct 13: The BoE, ECB, and SNB will conduct tenders of U.S. dollar funding at 7-day, 28-day, and 84-day maturities at fixed interest rates for full allotment. Funds will be provided at a fixed interest rate, set in advance of each operation. Counterparties in these operations will be able to borrow any amount they wish against the appropriate collateral in each jurisdiction.
* Bank CDS tighten in early trading

Oct 13, 2008

Michele Kearney said...

[opened]
Coordinated Policy Interverntion And Unlimited USD Supply: Will Money Markets Unfreeze?

* BNP: Initial market reaction after announcement of coordinated policy interventions at the G7 and the Eurozone is positive: Credit spreads start to ease:
- O/N USD LIBOR: 246bp down from 463bp (17bp pre-crisis);
- TED spread (3m LIBOR-T-bill spread) slightly down to 456 from record 463 earlier on Oct 13 after Fed announces unlimited USD liquidity (17bp pre-crisis);
- 3M USD LIBOR-OIS slightly down to 359 from 364 (10bp pre-crisis);
- 3M EUR LIBOR-OIS narrows to 182bp from 207 (10bp pre-crisis)
* Fed Board Oct 13: The BoE, ECB, and SNB will conduct tenders of U.S. dollar funding at 7-day, 28-day, and 84-day maturities at fixed interest rates for full allotment. Funds will be provided at a fixed interest rate, set in advance of each operation. Counterparties in these operations will be able to borrow any amount they wish against the appropriate collateral in each jurisdiction.
* Bank CDS tighten in early trading

Oct 13, 2008

Anonymous said...

Are we in the edge of an abyss?

I felt as if i attended the IMF annual meetings.

Informative article.

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