Foreign Policy News and Commentary Update December 5, 2007

THE NIE REPORT: LOSERS (ISRAEL) AND WINNERS (CHINA, IRAN) - JOHN MCCREARY (NIGHTWATCH, DECEMBER 3; POSTED AT INTELFUSION, DECEMBER 4): The National Intelligence Estimate is declassified, not leaked. The US government decided to put the Key Judgments in the public information domain. By doing so, the administration is continuing the public diplomacy and signaling to Iran a conciliatory message. The burden of going forward has now shifted to Iran -- to send a reply that it understands the US message.
http://idolator.typepad.com/intelfusion/2007/12/john-mccreary-r.html


THE EVER-HELPFUL VOA AL KAMEN (IN THE LOOP, WASHINGTON POST, DECEMBER 5): Payvand Iran News, an Iranian Web site, carried a down-the-middle report of the new nukes assessment: "A new U.S. intelligence estimate says it is not clear that Iran is determined to produce nuclear weapons. The estimate says Iran stopped nuclear weapons development four years ago, but adds that Tehran is keeping its options open." .
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120402048_pf.html

GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS - RAJ PUROHIT (PARTNERSHIP FOR A SECURE AMERICA, DECEMBER 4): "Citizens for Global Solutions strongly urges Secretary Rice to reconsider her decision to appoint Paul Wolfowitz to the chairmanship of the State Department International Security Advisory Board. ... The Board is designed to provide the Secretary of State with important independent insight and advice on all aspects of arms control, disarmament, international security, and related aspects of public diplomacy. Mr. Wolfowitz has shown that his analysis on weapons of mass destruction and related security matters cannot be trusted; therefore he is an inappropriate choice for this position."
http://blog.psaonline.org/2007/12/04/good-news-and-bad-news/

SAVE AMERICA FROM THE MOSH PIT: GOOD MANNERS AND DECENCY MATTER TO A NATION'S FUTURE - PAMELA MICHAELS (CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, DECEMBER 5): In this current political and cultural climate, in which Americans are pretty self-righteous about sharing the exalted virtues of democratization with the world at all costs, perhaps we should clean up our act a bit.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1205/p09s02-coop.htm

AN ASSESSMENT JARS A FOREIGN POLICY DEBATE ABOUT IRAN - STEVEN LEE MYERS (NEW YORK TIMES, DECEMBER 4): An administration that had cited Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons as the rationale for an aggressive foreign policy -- as an attempt to head off World War III, as President Bush himself put it only weeks ago -- now has in its hands a classified document that undercuts much of the foundation for that approach. The impact of the National Intelligence Estimate's conclusion -- that Iran had halted a military program in 2003, though it continues to enrich uranium, ostensibly for peaceful uses -- will be felt in endless ways at home and abroad.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/04/washington/04assess.html?hp=&pagewanted=print
NIE REPORT AT
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/documents/nie_iran_120307.pdf

SEVEN DAYS IN DECEMBER? - MAUREEN DOWD (NEW YORK TIMES, DECEMBER 4): After getting Iraq wrong and Iran wrong in 2005 and almost every other big thing wrong since the nation began spending billions every year on intelligence, the burned spooks may not have wanted to play the patsy again while W., Cheney and the neocons beat the drums for an Iran invasion.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/opinion/05dowd.html?ref=opinion&pagewanted=print

FACT-BASED INTELLIGENCE PREVAILS ON NUKES AND IRAN RAY MCGOVERN (COMMON DREAMS, DECEMBER 3): Apparently, intelligence community analysts are no longer required to produce the faith-based intelligence that brought us the Oct. 1, 2002 NIE Iraq's Continuing Program for Weapons of Mass Destruction -- the worst in the history of U.S. intelligence.
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/12/03/5590/

A BLOW TO BUSH'S TEHRAN POLICY - PETER BAKER AND ROBIN WRIGHT (WASHINGTON POST, DECEMBER 4): President Bush got the world's attention this fall when he warned that a nuclear-armed Iran might lead to World War III. But his stark warning came at least a month or two after he had first been told about fresh indications that Iran had actually halted its nuclear weapons program.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/03/AR2007120302210_pf.html

IT TURNS OUT AHMADINEJAD WAS THE TRUTHFUL ONE - ROBERT SCHEER (TRUTHDIG, DECEMBER 4): In October, Bush charged that Iran?s nuclear weapons program was bringing the world to the precipice of World War III, even though the White House had been informed at least a month earlier that Iran had no such program and had stopped efforts to develop one back in 2003.
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20071204_it_turns_out_ahmadinejad_is_honest/

NECK-SNAPPING SPIN FROM THE PRESIDENT - DAN FROOMKIN (WASHINGTONPOST.COM, DECEMBER 4): By concluding that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program four years ago, the national intelligence estimate released yesterday undermined a key element of President Bush's foreign policy. It raised questions about whether the president and vice president knowingly misled the public about the danger posed by Iran. And it added to Bush's profound credibility problems with the American people and the international community.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/blog/2007/12/04/BL2007120401026_pf.html

IRAN NIE VALIDATES 2003 EUROPEAN DIPLOMACY - GARETH PORTER (ANTIWAR.COM, DECEMBER 5): Despite the White House spin that the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) supports its policy of increasing pressure on Iran, the estimate not only directly contradicts the George W. Bush administration's line on Iranian intentions regarding nuclear weapons, but points to a link between Tehran's 2003 decision to halt research on weaponization and its decision to negotiate with European foreign ministers on both nuclear and Iranian security concerns.
http://www.antiwar.com/porter/?articleid=12007

THE NEW INTELLIGENCE ON IRAN EDITORIAL (BOSTON GLOBE, DECEMBER 5): The latest National Intelligence Estimate of Iran's nuclear program is a welcome turnabout. A declassified summary of the estimate released Monday said that Iran ceased pursuing a covert nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003. Regardless of the spin President Bush and others may try to give this new assessment, there can be no doubt that it undercuts the argument for an urgent military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/editorials/articles/2007/12/05/the_new_intelligence_on_iran?mode=PF

IRAN'S NONEXISTENT NUCLEAR PROGRAM: SCORE ONE FOR DETERRENCE -- AND THE RUSSIANS ? EDITORIAL (LOS ANGELES TIMES, DECEMBER 5): A nuclear-armed Iran should be deterred. The tragedy for U.S. security and global peace is that Bush has squandered his chances to lead that vital effort.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-ed-iran5dec05,0,3196343.story?coll=la-opinion-leftrail

THE MYTH OF THE MAD MULLAHS - DAVID IGNATIUS (WASHINGTON POST, DECEMBER 5): For the past several years, U.S. intelligence analysts have doubted hawkish U.S. and Israeli rhetoric that Iran is dominated by "mad mullahs" -- clerics whose fanatical religious views might lead to irrational decisions. In the new NIE, the analysts forcefully posit an alternative view of an Iran that is rational, susceptible to diplomatic pressure and, in that sense, can be "deterred."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120401669_pf.html

GOOD AND BAD NEWS ABOUT IRAN - EDITORIAL (NEW YORK TIMES, DECEMBER 5): Bush has yet to make a serious offer of comprehensive talks and real rewards if Iran is willing to give up its fuel program and cooperate fully with inspectors. He is going to have to send someone a lot higher ranking than the American ambassador in Baghdad to deliver the message. We suggest Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for the job.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/opinion/05wed1.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&ref=opinion&pagewanted=print

INTELLIGENCE ON IRAN: THE NEW U.S. ASSESSMENT HAS SOME GOOD NEWS -- BUT THE REACTION TO IT COULD BE BAD EDITORIAL (WASHINGTON POST, DECEMBER 5): Before the United States attempts to negotiate directly with Iran about its nuclear program, the administration should have some indication that the Iranian regime is prepared to comply with binding U.N. resolutions and seriously address other U.S. concerns. A report by U.S. intelligence agencies is an unsatisfying substitute for a signal that has yet to come from Tehran.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120401772_pf.html

TIME TO TALK TO IRAN by ROBERT KAGAN (WASHINGTON POST, DECEMBER 5): There is a good case for negotiations. Many around the world and in the United States have imagined that the obstacle to improved Iranian behavior has been America's unwillingness to talk. This is a myth, but it will hamper American efforts now and for years to come. Eventually, the United States will have to take the plunge, as it has with so many adversaries throughout its history.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120401146_pf.html

THE VIEW FROM IRAN - KAVEH L. AFRASIABI AND KAYHAN BARZEGAR (BOSTON GLOBE, DECEMBER 5): The intelligence report gives the United States the opportunity to set US-Iran relations on a more constructive track, and US leaders should avoid steps that would close that window.
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/12/05/the_view_from_iran?mode=PF

SCOTT RITTER ON THE NIE REPORT AND WAR WITH IRAN - JAMES HARRIS (TRUTHDIG, DECEMBER 4): Ritter, the Truthdig columnist (and WMD expert), warns that war with Iran could be inevitable, despite the National Intelligence Estimate report that says Iran dismantled its nuclear program in 2003. Bush, Ritter argues, doesn?t let facts get in the way of what he wants.
http://www.truthdig.com/podcast/item/20071204_scott_ritter_on_the_nie_report_and_war_with_iran/

NO IRAN ATTACK? DON'T BE SO SURE... NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE NEOCONS ? JUSTIN RAIMONDO (ANTIWAR.COM, DECEMBER 5): The nuclear issue has never been the primary thrust of the neocons' case for war with Iran: far more important has been the accusation that we are already at war with Iran because they're supposedly funding, harboring, and directing "terrorist" activities against U.S. troops in Iraq.
http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=12005

BE INTELLIGENT EDITORS (NATIONAL REVIEW, DECEMBER 5): We can't know for sure whether the claims in the NIE are correct. What we do know is this: The Islamic Republic is killing Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan. It has exported terror around the globe. It has powerful strategic reasons to want an atomic bomb: to counterbalance American influence, and to become a hegemon in the Middle East.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDA2OWMzNjEyMzg5Y2Q4ZjRhOWU4OWY1MTA2NmRhM2Q=

'HIGH CONFIDENCE' GAMES REVIEW & OUTLOOK (WALL STREET JOURNAL, DECEMBER 5): Over the course of a decade, our intelligence services badly underestimated Saddam's nuclear ambitions, then overestimated them. Now they have done a 180-degree turn on Iran, and in such a way that will contribute to a complacency that will make it easier for Iran to build a weapon.http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB119682320187314033.html

IRAN AND ITS DEMOCRATIC FRIENDS EDITORIAL (WASHINGTON TIMES, DECEMBER 5): If anything is clear from the new National Intelligence Estimate, it's that the U.S. intelligence agencies have no clear idea of what's going on in Iran.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071205/EDITORIAL/112050013/1013&template=printart

THE GULF STATES AND IRAN - MAX BOOT (WALL STREET JOURNAL, DECEMBER 5): What particularly concerns Gulf Arabs is the possibility that Iran could go nuclear -- a concern unlikely to be erased by the ambiguous findings of the new NIE.
http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB119682417350614074.html
PAID SUBSCRIPTION

KEY FIGURES ABOUT IRAQ AP (NEW YORK TIMES, DECEMBER 3): Note: Current Baghdad megawatt figures are no longer reported by the US State Department's Iraq Weekly Status Report.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iraq-By-The-Numbers.html

US ADMITTING FEWER IRAQI REFUGEES - ASSOCIATED PRESS (NEW YORK TIMES, DECEMBER 3): The United States admitted only 362 Iraqi refugees in November, almost 100 fewer than in October, and far less than half the number it needs per month to meet a goal of 12,000 by the end of this budget year, according to State Department statistics.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-US-Iraq-Refugees.html?pagewanted=print

A MICROSCOPIC INSURGENT - MARK D. DRAPEAU (NEW YORK TIMES, DECEMBER 4): Cholera is a grave threat for the American project in Iraq, but also an opportunity to capture the hearts and minds of the population. The average Iraqi will feel truly secure only when the vicious disease-poverty-insurgent feedback loop is snapped. As we plan the post-surge phase of American operations, our leaders must bear in mind that healthy people make healthy decisions that serve as the bedrock for healthy societies.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/04/opinion/04drapeau.html?ref=opinion&pagewanted=print

A CALMER IRAQ: FRAGILE, AND POSSIBLY FLEETING - ALISSA J. RUBIN (NEW YORK TIMES, DECEMBER 5): The reduced violence in Iraq in recent months stems from three significant developments, but the clock is running on all of them, Iraqi officials and analysts warn.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/world/middleeast/05surge.html?hp=&pagewanted=print

WHY BUSH'S TROOP SURGE WON'T SAVE IRAQ: THE INFLUX OF U.S. TROOPS BROUGHT A RELATIVE LULL IN VIOLENCE -- BUT THE FAILING STATE REMAINS IN POLITICAL CHAOS AND IS HEADED FOR COLLAPSE - JUAN COLE (SALON, DECEMBER 4)
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/12/04/iraq/print.html

NOW AND FOREVER - BOB HERBERT (NEW YORK TIMES, DECEMBER 4): Youngsters who were just starting high school when the U.S. invaded Iraq are in college now. Their children, yet unborn, will be called on to fork over tax money to continue paying for the war. Seriously. How long do we want this madness to last?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/04/opinion/04herbert.html?ref=opinion&pagewanted=print

IRAQ'S LOVELY THIS TIME OF YEAR AL KAMEN (IN THE LOOP, WASHINGTON POST, DECEMBER 5): The opportunity of a lifetime! The government is paying up to $144,000 for a "business development/tourism" expert to "work with private sector businesses and local governments in fostering business development with a particular focus on tourism and related services." The 13-month job also offers a 35 percent "danger pay" premium and other bonuses because it's based in Baghdad.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120402048_pf.html

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED WHEN? - CAL THOMAS (WASHINGTON TIMES, DECEMBER 5): President Bush has made an enormous gamble -- in Iraq and with the push for a Palestinian state. If he's right, future historians will regard him as one of this country's greatest presidents. If he's wrong, the United States and the world will be paying the price for his misjudgment for much longer than 50 years.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071205/COMMENTARY09/112050022/1012/COMMENTARY&template=printart

UNEXPECTED FRUIT FROM ANNAPOLIS - CLAUDE SALHANI (WASHINGTON TIMES, DECEMBER 5): Moscow and Riyadh, much like Washington, London, Paris, Madrid, Istanbul and other countless cities that have experienced firsthand devastating attacks by Islamist terrorists, also agree on a fundamental focus point of the Middle East conflict: Until the Palestinians have their own state, the continued unrest in the Middle East will provide extremist Islamists a perfect recruiting poster for their cause.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071205/COMMENTARY/112050025/1012&template=printart

VENEZUELANS RAIN ON HUGO REVIEW & OUTLOOK (WALL STREET JOURNAL, DECEMBER 4): The stunning defeat Sunday of President Hugo Chávez's constitutional reform agenda is more than a setback for Venezuela's messianic strongman. It is a victory for the ideal of liberty across Latin America. What an affirmation of that ideal it would be if the US Congress now did its part to keep it alive by voting to liberalize trade with Venezuela's neighbors.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119673434649212675.html?mod=todays_us_opinion

THE CLIMATE IN BALI AND WASHINGTON - EDITORIAL (NEW YORK TIMES, DECEMBER 3): It will be much easier to get China, India and others to adopt aggressive policies regarding global warming if the United States is also on board.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/03/opinion/03mon1.html?n=Top/Opinion/Editorials%20and%20Op-Ed/Editorials&pagewanted=print

THE U.S. RESPONSE TO TERRORISM: A FUNDAMENTALLY FLAWED STRATEGY HAVILLAND SMITH (AMERICAN DIPLOMACY, NOVEMBER 13): The puerile braggadocio with which we alternately dehumanize and belittle the Muslims may make some of us feel better, but is directly counterproductive to our goals for dealing with terrorism. Equating all Muslims with terrorism is not only inaccurate, but also demeaning and infuriating for mainstream, moderate Muslims.
http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2007/1012/smit/smith_response.html

THE POLITICS OF CHICKEN LITTLEISM - BENJAMIN FRIEDMAN (WASHINGTON POST, DECEMBER 5): Why do we conjure up so many possible monsters to destroy, and then overspend to confront them? One answer is that our defense policies are made by politicians and organizations that benefit from precautionary policies. In American politics today, there are no powerful doves.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120401928.html

THE MYSTERIES OF THE AMERICAN EMPIRE - FRED HALLIDAY (OPENDEMOCRACY, DECEMBER 3): That one day the U.S.'s dominance over the world will lessen is indisputable; but that another power will emerge in the foreseeable future that can rival it (as the Soviet Union did from a position of overall weakness) is less clear.
http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/globalisation/mysteries_us_empire