'If Iran Provokes an Energy Crisis: Modeling the Problem in a War Game" by James Jay Carafano, William W. Beach, Ariel cohen, Lisa Curtis, et al.

For anyone who was worried about the economic impact of a US strike on Iran, the following scenario (link below) from the Heritage Foundation will make comforting reading. Not only will the economic consequences be much less than the doomsayers predict, but the new war will actually have advantages like opening up ANWR and the Gulf waters for oil exploration and roll-back of energy conservation measures (higher CAFE standards) and environmental regulation (Clean Air). One is lightly surprised that the scenario did not call for an abolition in capital gains tax to tide us through the emergency.

"If Iran Provokes an Energy Crisis: Modeling the Problem in a War Game" James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., and William W. Beach and Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Lisa A. Curtis, Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D., Alison Acosta Fraser, Ben Lieberman, and James Phillips

From December 2006 to March 2007, Heritage Foundation scholars conducted a computer simulation and gaming exercise that examined the likely economic and policy consequences of a major oil disruption in the Persian Gulf. The exercise utilized a realistic scenario, state-of-the-art macroeconomic modeling, and a knowledgeable team of subject-matter experts from government, business, academia, and research institutes from around Washington, D.C.

http://www.heritage.org/Research/EnergyandEnvironment/CDA07-03.cfm