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Thursday, October 17, 2024
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
[Salon] How Israel’s imperial hubris will prove its undoing - ArabDigest.org Guest Post
How Israel’s imperial hubris will prove its undoing
Summary: as Israel expands a war driven by an expansionist colonising vision, it risks driving the Arab governments who are its friends and allies into making a choice between their citizens who support Palestinians and a regime intent on destroying the possibility of a Palestinian state.
We thank our regular contributor Maged Mandour for today’s newsletter. Maged is a political analyst who also contributes to Middle East Eye and Open Democracy. He is a writer for Sada, the Carnegie Endowment online journal and the author of the recently published Egypt under El-Sisi (I.B.Tauris) which examines social and political developments since the coup of 2013. You can find Maged’s most recent AD podcast here.
On 8 October Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a speech directed at the people of Lebanon. In it he threatened the Lebanese with Gaza -like destruction, and the “abyss of a long war”, if they do not act against Hezbollah. It was a direct call for a new civil war in a country already heavily scarred by civil war. The speech was followed with a documentary by the German broadcasters ATRE, where the far-right Israeli Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, stated that “It is written that the future of Jerusalem is to expand to Damascus.” The enthusing for the expansion of the war to Lebanon and the rising risk of a full-scale regional war is not limited to Israeli policy makers but has extended to the United States where several top national security advisors see the expanding the war as a "history-defining moment — one that will reshape the Middle East for the better for years to come.” It is a rhetoric reminiscent of the American assertions before the invasion of Iraq that not only led to expansion of Iranian influence in the region but to the rise of radical jihadi groups culminating in the Islamic State. This hubris will not only backfire, it will undermine the regional order that saw Israel become an integral part of a conservative Arab axis that included the largest Arab states. Indeed, the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, its siege of Gaza and its policy of perpetual subjugation of the Palestinians were fully accepted by these powerful Arab states, in itself an historic precedent. However, Israel’s new “forever” war does not only undermine this order, but also threatens the stability of some of its closest Arab allies, with unpredictable consequences.
This is clearest in the case of Egypt, one of two regional mediators in negotiation with Hamas (the other being Qatar.) Since the start of the war relations between the two sides have clearly soured. For example, in October 2023 a document issued by the Israeli Intelligence ministry suggested that a mass transfer of Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai would be an acceptable solution to the conflict. It was a policy that seemed to have received backing from Washington and was starting to attract and mobilise financial resources for a possible resettlement scheme though it was soundly rejected by President Sisi. Even though the idea appears to have been abandoned, at least officially, actual Israeli policy has as a tactic the ethnic cleansing of the Strip by making it unliveable. For example, during the first year of the war 60% of residential buildings, 80% of commercial buildings and 68% of cropland have been damaged along with hospitals, schools and university, electricity, waste and water treatment infrastructure either severely damaged or reduced to rubble, in all a stupendous amount of destruction. This is on top of the 42, 979 people killed, the 10,000 missing, and the 98,486 wounded. The situation is compounded by the Israeli insistence that ‘the day after’ in Gaza will involve direct Israeli security control, a euphemism for full occupation, rejecting any role for the Palestinian Authority. In other words, an open-ended security operation that will continue to wreak havoc on the Strip, increasing the chances of mass exodus of the Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt.
In a case of imperial hubris the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon will not only fail to eradicate Hamas and Hezbollah but will weaken Israel’s regional allies and make any progress towards regional integration led by the Israelis even more unlikely
Such an exodus threatens to destabilise a regime whose legitimacy rests on nationalist credentials, one of which is stopping the establishment of a Palestinian state in Sinai, one of the many conspiracy theories used by Sisi to discredit the Muslim Brothers and justify their overthrow. A mass influx of Palestinians would cause irreparable damage to the regime's domestic legitimacy amid a grinding debt crisis. Tensions were not eased between the allies when Israel occupied the Philadelphi Corridor, under the guise of destroying tunnels and controlling the smuggling between Gaza and Sinai, with the Israeli accusation that weapons were being smuggled to Hamas from Egypt. According to the IDF when they seized control of the corridor only 9 tunnels were discovered already sealed by Egypt before 7 October. This claim seems to have been used by Netanyahu to block a ceasefire deal, knowing Hamas rejects continued Israeli presence in the corridor.
Another Arab country close to Israel and facing the repercussion of Israeli hubris is Jordan. With violence in the West Bank escalating, unleashed by settlers and the IDF, leading to the death of 749 Palestinians, there is good reason to fear that a scheme of ethnic cleansing is in the works, this time pushing Palestinians to Jordan. It is a concern echoed by Jordan's King Abdullah himself. These fears are not unfounded, considering that in March 2023, Smotrich showed a map referring to greater Israel, which contained parts of Jordan. The ethnic cleansing of the West Bank is a policy that predates 7 October; however the war on Gaza has provided the necessary cover for its expansion and intensification. Despite these fears, Jordan participated in the downing of Iraninan missiles and drones launched into Israel in April and October.
Israel’s desire to destroy all its enemies in one go has also derailed the grand prize of normalisation, namely Saudi Arabia, arguably the most powerful Arab state and the heart of the conservative axis. Before the war, normalisation looked to be within reach buttressed by American security and military commitments and civilian-use nuclear assistance. Indeed, over several years prior to 7 October Mohammed bin Salman had expressed both publicly and privately his criticisms of the Palestinians. One such instance was in April 2018 when he stated “It is about time the Palestinians take the proposals and agree to come to the negotiations table or shut up and stop complaining” lamenting several supposed opportunities that the Palestinians had lost. His sentiment seemed to have not changed with reports as recent as September 2024, where he told US Secretary of State Blinken that he does not personally care about what he called “the Palestinian issue”. However, he is also acutely aware that the young Saudi population does and that a normalisation deal on the back of the slaughter in Gaza would be immensely damaging.
A deal could well have been possible before the Hamas attack but now - despite American claims to the contrary - the prospects are dimming. The expansion of the war to Lebanon and the continuing slaughter in Gaza will only make this prospect even more remote. This is reinforced by the developing detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as reflected in the meeting between MbS and the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Aragchi on 9 October just two days past the first anniversary of the Hamas attack. Iran also warned the Arab Gulf countries that allowing their airspace or territory to be used to launch strikes against it will draw a response, a terrifying prospect for countries whose citizens are assumed to be largely sympathetic to the Palestinians.
The Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon in what is a case of imperial hubris will not only fail to eradicate Hamas and Hezbollah but will weaken Israel’s regional allies and make any progress towards regional integration led by the Israelis even more unlikely. Indeed, the Israeli responses to 7 October has revealed something that many Arab leaders chose to forget, namely that alliances with an apartheid state, based on racial supremacy and colonial expansion are fickle and unstable. As such, Israel was and remains a huge threat to the stability of all the Arab regimes, be they allies and foes.
Members can leave comments about this newsletter on the Arab Digest website
[Salon] Being early isn’t always a virtue - Bloomberg Guest Post
Bloomberg
Being early isn’t always a virtue
Most experienced business reporters know that when a company is late with its quarterly earnings report — even a few minutes off its usual cadence — the chances are that bad news is about to hit. ASML Holding NV, which produces advanced chipmaking machines and is Europe’s most valuable technology company, flipped the script.
The Netherlands-based company released its results, scheduled for Wednesday, a day early on Tuesday by mistake. It was an unpleasant surprise for investors. The report detailed bookings — a predictor of future revenue — of €2.6 billion ($2.8 billion) in the third quarter, nowhere near the €5.39 billion average of analysts’ estimates.
Tracking demand for machines that make components of electronic devices has been an esoteric pursuit for most of the company’s history. ASML is the market leader for something called lithography. Its giant machines burn patterns in layers of materials deposited on disks of silicon, completing one stage in the multistep process of making semiconductors.
But the fact that ASML is the only one that has mastered the art of doing this for the absolute leading edge of technology has made its gear a must have for the chip industry’s most important companies. Its success has made it a focus of politicians looking to assert geopolitical pressure on rival nations by controlling access to advanced technology, as well as investors, who’ve come to love the company’s growth and profitability.
ASML’s giant machines, arguably the most important piece of equipment used by companies including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Samsung Electronics Co. and Intel Corp., take months to build, install and qualify for production in chip plants that cost tens of billions of dollars. The operators of those facilities know that they need to be running that gear flat out, 24 hours a day, to give themselves a chance of making a return on the massive upfront investment.
That means customers place orders at ASML generally when they’re confident that they’ll have enough demand to keep the machines busy as long as a year in the future. The key takeaway from ASML’s announcement appears to be that optimism about that future among chipmakers is declining rapidly.
“It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness,” Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet said in the statement that roiled the markets Tuesday.
The news sent ASML shares down 16% in Amsterdam, the worst single-day decline in 26 years, and walloped other chip-equipment makers — KLA Corp. plunged the most in a decade at 15%, while Applied Materials Inc. and Lam Research Corp. dropped 11% each. ASML’s results also pulled down the broader industry as the benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index declined 5.3%, the most in six weeks.
Even though ASML pointed to continued strong demand for chips used to power artificial intelligence work, market leader Nvidia Corp. got caught in the overall industry pessimism that took hold, with its shares extending an early decline and falling 4.5% at the close in New York.
ASML’s leader will face questions from analysts Wednesday at 9 a.m. New York time on a conference call. Like its peers, the company doesn’t usually talk about customers specifically.
There’s some debate among analysts about the chief area of concern. None of the range of options is appealing.
Intel, once the chip industry’s biggest company and biggest spender, has been forced to rapidly scale back its ambitions, hurt by the loss of market share and weaker demand for its main products. The company is cutting its budget for new gear by 20% this year and scaling back on capital expenditures again next year. Some analysts now predict Intel will never get back to its former levels, which is bad news for ASML and the rest of the chip gear industry.
Then there’s Samsung, the biggest memory chipmaker and another of the largest spenders on semiconductor equipment. Earlier this month, the South Korean company issued an apology to investors for disappointing results. Jun Young-hyun, newly appointed head of the core semiconductor business, promised to overhaul the organization in an unusually frank statement issued after Samsung disclosed worse-than-projected revenue and profit.
And more generally, makers of less sophisticated chips are suffering weaker demand in the key industrial and automotive markets. They’re key buyers of older types of machines from ASML that nonetheless account for a large chunk of its revenue.
Finally, there’s China. The region accounted for 47% of ASML’s revenue in the quarter. That portion is headed for lower “more normalized” levels, ASML’s management said.
The ill-timed results are more than a one-day surprise, according to Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon.
“The order trajectory and comments on broader demand will probably create an overhang on 2025 expectations (especially given some of the well-publicized issues at Intel et al) that seems unlikely to ease in the near term,’’ he said in a note.—Ian King
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
[Salon] U.S. MUST AVOID DANGER OF INVOLVEMENT IN A MIDDLE EAST WAR - Guest Post by Allan Brownfeld
[Salon] U.S. MUST AVOID DANGER OF INVOLVEMENT IN A MIDDLE EAST WAR
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Chas Freeman via Salon
3:44 PM (1 hour ago)
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U.S. MUST AVOID DANGER OF INVOLVEMENT IN A MIDDLE EAST WAR
By
Allan C.Brownfeld
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There is great danger that the U.S. will be drawn into a Middle East war that does not serve our national interest or the cause of world peace. It may also involve us in assisting policies which we have warned against, and probably violate international law.
U.S. officials are concerned that massive U.S. aid to Israel—-which has totaled more than $200 billion since Israel’s creation, more than aid given to any other country——violate laws prohibiting American military assistance to foreign powers that have committed gross human rights violations or blocked the movement of humanitarian aid.
The Biden administration acknowledges that Israel may have violated humanitarian law using American weapons. In May, the White House paused the shipment of thousands of weapons to Israel, including controversial 2,000 pound bombs. Amid concerns over Israel’s plans to expand military operations in Gaza, where more than 42,000 people have already been killed, the majority of them women and children. Now, in addition, several thousand civilians have thus far been killed in Lebanon. The Biden administration subsequently resumed the shipment of weapons, sending 500-pound munitions.
Many U.S. allies——including Britain, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain and Belgium—-have restricted military equipment transfers to Israel because of legal and political concerns about their potential use to commit war crimes.
Now, the Biden administration has announced that it is sending a THAAD or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense antmissile system to Israel along with U.S. troops needed to operate it. THAAD is one of the most advanced U.S. missile defense systems. It fires interceptors to destroy incoming missiles. Each interceptor is estimated to cost tens of millions of dollars and a standard battery contains 48 interceptors.
There is great danger that having U.S. military personnel in Israel, firing missiles at other countries, will involve the U..S. in a war without Congress ever declaring war, as the Constitution mandates. Beyond this, the government of Israel is acting in contradiction to U.S. policy. For more than 50 years Israel, in violation of international law, has occupied the West Bank. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have called for a “two state solution.” This would involve the creation of a Palestinian state on the West Bank. Instead, Israel’s government is building settlements throughout the West Bank and members of the Netanyahu government call for annexing the territory and expelling its indigenous Palestinian residents. In the West Bank, Israeli settlers have full legal rights. Palestinians have almost none. Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and the Israeli human rights group B’Tselem have categorized this as “apartheid.”
More and more Jewish Americans are lamenting that while Israel proclaims itself a “Jewish” state, it had abandoned Jewish moral and ethical values when it comes to its treatment of Palestinians, and the Biden administration has remained silent. Peter Beinart, an editor of Jewish Currents, notes that, “Through his unwavering backing of Israel, Mr. Biden has effectively supported its unequal treatment and oppression of Palestinians—-especially in Gaza—-and undermined the ethical rationale for his presidency…Israel’s political system is explicitly based on religion and ethnicity. Its controversial 2018 nation-state bill declares that ‘’Jews alone can excercise national self-determination. Most of the Palestinians under Israeli control —-those in the West Bank and Gaza Strip—-can’t become citizens of the state that dominates their lives. A minority of Palestinians who live within Israel’s 1967 borders do enjoy citizenship and the right to vote. But when Arab Israeli politicians advanced a bill that would have made legal equality between Arab and Jewish citizens a foundation of Israeli law in 2018, the speaker of Israel’s Parliament refused to allow a vote on it because it would ‘gnaw at the foundation of the state.’”
Beinart laments that, “When it comes to Israel, Mr. Biden hasn’t supported equality under the law. The war in Gaza has made that contradiction impossible to ignore. It is most glaring when Biden expresses deep empathy for Israeli suffering but relative indifference to the far larger number of dead Palestinians, or when his administration seems to distinguish even between American citizens , showing more concern for those murdered by Hamas than those killed by Israel’s military.”
Peace in the Middle East was a real possibility before Prime Minister Netanyahu’s extremist government came to power. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states said they would recognize Israel and make peace as soon as steps were taken to create a Palestinian state on the West Bank, which is what U.S. policy supported. Instead, Netanyahu and the extremists he named to his Cabinet rejected the creation of a Palestinian state and, instead, hope to annex the West Bank and remove the Palestinians. Terrorism by Israeli settlers against the West Bank’s indigenous population is growing. The U.S. remains largely silent.
The danger of us getting involved in a Middle East War is growing as American troops will be in Israel firing weapons at Israel’s adversaries, at the same time that Israel rejects U.S. policy advice and is in violation of international law. War by accident is a real possibility and completely ignores the Constitutional path by which we are to to war.
Unfortunately, Congress has abdicated its constitutionally mandated role in declaring war. During the administration of Lyndon Johnson, at a time when ever increasing numbers of American troops were being dispatched to Vietnam, then Undersecretary of State Nicholas Katzenbach told the Congress that in popular terms the U.S. was “clearly at war” but defended the administration’s refusal to seek a formal declaration to justify U.S. action.
Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Katzenbach said that Congress had “authorized President Johnson to take all necessary steps , including the use of the armed forces to assist any member of protocol states of the Southeast Asia collective defense treaty requesting assistance in defense of its freedom.”
The last time Congress declared war was after Pearl Harbor. Since then, we have gone to war in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and other places without a congressional declaration. Now, American military officers in Israel are ready to fire advanced American weapons against Israel’s various adversaries. This is not how the authors of the Constitution wanted America to go to war. Where all of this will end is impossible to know.
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Allan C. Brownfeld is a nationally syndicated columnist and is editor of ISSUES, the quarterly journal of the American Council for Judaism.
[Salon] China tightens the screws on Taiwan
Bloomberg
It was no secret that China mistrusts Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te. This week showed just how much it despises him.
China held major military exercises yesterday around the democratic archipelago of 23 million people for the second time since Lai took office in May. It only did so twice during the entire eight-year rule of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen.
Beijing sent a record number of warplanes across a dividing line in the strait separating Taiwan from the mainland that the US drew in the 1950s to keep the peace. It sailed an aircraft carrier off the main island’s coast and, for the first time, sent ships from its Coast Guard on patrol there. Taiwan also reported a surge in cyberattacks.
China was probably always going to hold military drills around Taiwan at some point this year, but it chose to time them right after Lai gave a speech in which he said he’d stand up to challenges from Taipei’s giant neighbor.
Beijing was peeved that Lai used that address to say he’d work to “resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty.” He also said neither side was “subordinate to each other.”
Those kinds of comments are anathema to China, which says it sees no room to compromise on its claim over Taiwan, home to some of the world’s biggest and most advanced chipmakers.
The issue is a major point of contention with Washington, which has long supported the Taiwanese militarily, economically and politically despite ending its mutual defense treaty when it recognized Beijing in the late 1970s.
More dramatic examples of Beijing’s anger with Lai may come soon. After the drills had ended, the world’s biggest military by number of troops pledged to flex its muscles whenever it is “provoked.”
As a spokesman for China’s Defense Ministry put it: Those in Taiwan pushing for independence need to “understand that a sharp sword hangs high over their heads.”— Philip Glamann
Lai during a military exercise in July. Photographer: I-Hwa Cheng/Bloomberg
Monday, October 14, 2024
[Salon] In Saudi Arabia justice is absent, impunity is rife
In Saudi Arabia justice is absent, impunity is rife
Summary: as the campaign to polish the image of Mohammed bin Salman continues to gather pace, the crown prince has suffered a setback at the UN; even so the pace of executions continues unchecked with 2024 the bloodiest year yet.
We thank Taha al-Hajji for today’s newsletter opinion piece. He is the legal director of the European Saudi Organisation for Human Rights (ESOHR) which is a partner organisation of Reprieve. Taha previously worked as a lawyer in Saudi Arabia defending clients, including children, at risk of execution. He now lives in exile.
Saudi Arabia is executing people at a record rate. In July and August alone there were 80 executions. At the time of writing there have already been 215 executions this year making 2024 the bloodiest in the Kingdom's modern history. A 2023 report by Reprieve and ESOHR showed that since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman came to power with his father King Salman in January 2015, the annual rate of executions has doubled. Thus far, their regime has executed 1,459 people.
Saudi authorities frequently carry out executions at opportunistic moments to temper international outrage: whilst the world is consumed with the horror in Gaza, the Kingdom is clearing its overflowing prisons with a bloodbath. The death penalty crisis under the reign of Mohammed bin Salman is intensifying.
A win for human rights, a setback for the Saudi authorities
On 9 October UN member states voted to elect five new members to the Human Rights Council. Saudi Arabia was fighting for a seat alongside five other candidates including Qatar. Numerous human rights groups campaigned against the Saudis. With 117 votes the kingdom finished last behind the Marshall Islands. Qatar secured 167 votes.
Still, the ease with which Saudi Arabia has put people to death while bidding for a seat on the Council is a clear indication that the Saudi authorities care little for what the international community think of them. In fact, Saudi Arabia’s unchecked pursuit of protesters, women’s rights defenders, and social media influencers has created a climate of absolute impunity for the Crown Prince at the painful expense of its citizens.
In 2020, member states rejected Saudi Arabia’s bid to join the Council. Four years later the Saudis were back. But since 2020 things have gotten worse, not better: 196 executions in 2022, including 81 men killed on a single day, then 172 executions in 2023.
Total executions in Saudi Arabia 2010-2021 [photo credit: Reprieve]
The statistics are important, but it’s essential we don’t get lost in them. People on death row have families who live in agonising fear, not knowing when they will receive news of their loved ones’ death, if indeed they hear at all.
One child defendant, Abdullah al-Derazi, was in a coma for two weeks as a result of the torture inflicted upon him during his interrogation, to force him to sign a confession. He could be executed at any moment. Youssef al-Manasif was tied to a staircase in a police station and kicked by passing officers. He is now on death row for allegedly attending protests when he was a child. A third child defendant, Abdullah al-Howaiti, was arrested and tortured when he was 14, and forced to participate in his brother’s torture to coerce him into a confession.
Gaslighting the international community
Saudi authorities have a history of gaslighting the international community when it comes to their human rights abuses. In April 2020, Saudi Arabia’s Human Rights Commission had announced a ‘Royal Decree’, supposedly to “abolish the use of the death penalty for minors”. In October 2020, the SHRC issued a public statement on Twitter claiming, “no one in Saudi Arabia will be executed for a crime committed as a minor.” In February 2021, the Saudi officials reiterated to the UNHRC that “anyone who commits a death eligible crime as a child" will be subject to “a maximum sentence of 10 years in a juvenile institution."
The Royal Decree has never been made public, abolishing the death penalty for child defendants has not been implemented, and the Saudi authorities continue to lie about it, including at the UNHRC during the adoption of Saudi Arabia’s Universal Periodic Review report.
In 2021, a year after Saudi Arabia repeated its commitment to the UNHCR, Mustafa al-Darwish was executed for so-called “crimes” that took place when he was just 17 years old. Detained for non-lethal protest related offences, he was placed in solitary confinement and beaten until he lost consciousness, then forced to sign a confession to make the torture stop. His family received no notice before he was put to death.
On the morning of the UN Human Rights Council vote, Saudi Arabia once again lied to the UN when it told the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women that it reserves the death penalty for the most serious crimes.
It is worth noting that we have recently passed the six-year anniversary of the torture and murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, a heinous crime which US intelligence has determined was approved by Mohammed bin Salman and carried out by a team of 15 Saudi agents. The murder sent shockwaves across the world and six years on it stands as a reminder that justice is absent and impunity is rife in the kingdom.
The past few years have also been difficult for those of us who are exiles trying to continue our work on these cases. Civil society is shrinking and even those who are abroad are not safe. It’s more difficult than ever to monitor the situation. Minors whose cases we monitored closely have been executed, religious scholars and university professors face the spectre of death and our friends are imprisoned for their activism.
We hear promises from the Saudi Arabia authorities and talk of legal reforms. We were optimistic when the Royal Decree was announced in 2020, which was supposed to halt death sentences against minors, and when Muhammad bin Salman committed to ending the death penalty for non-lethal offences.
But in the end, all we have seen is increasing restrictions on individuals. Families are prevented from communicating with us, arbitrary sentences have been issued and death sentences given out to political detainees, child defendants and others. Gathering information and defending those sentenced to death is becoming more and more difficult but more important than ever, as the government desperately attempts to launder its image.
Since Saudi Arabia’s last bid to join the Human Rights Council four years ago, there has been no progress on human rights violations. As executions increase at an alarming rate, and blood continues to run through the prisons, it is a small victory but victory nonetheless that once again their bid has been turned away.
Sunday, October 13, 2024
[Salon] THE BIBLE ADMONISHES THAT THOSE WHO TAKE UP THE SWORD SHALL PERISH BY THE SWORD
Telegram posting https://t.me/ScottRitter/3090
THE BIBLE ADMONISHES THAT THOSE WHO TAKE UP THE SWORD SHALL PERISH BY THE SWORD
Today the world is held hostage by two entities defined by ideologies the West once found reprehensible (Banderist Ukraine and Zionist Israel, derived from Nazi and Apartheid notions of racial supremacy used to justify genocide).
We wait as Ukraine seeks to implement its “victory plan” by using western-provided and directed weapons to strike Russia.
We wait as Israel seeks to use US-provided and directed weapons to strike Iran.
In many corners of the West, these potential acts of aggression are being encouraged and cheered on as legitimate acts of self-defense.
Ignoring the role the West played in fomenting the Ukraine-Russian conflict as part of an effort to undermine and destroy Russia.
Ignoring the fact that Israel has been provoking Iran, at the behest of the West, so it can put in motion events designed to undermine and destroy the Islamic Republic.
The consequences of a Ukrainian attack on Russia using Western-provided and directed weapons will be a state of war between the West and Russia of an existential nature which logic dictates inevitably will involve nuclear weapons.
The consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran using US-provided and directed weapons will be an existential conflict between Israel and Iran which will inevitably involve nuclear weapons.
The 2024 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to a Japanese anti-nuclear war organization composed of survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb attacks on Japan by the United States.
The Nobel Committee said it made this award because the group had made using nuclear weapons taboo.
And yet the world is on the cusp of two potential nuclear conflicts.
Conflicts actively promoted by the US and the West in support of two nations whose ideological predicates are pure evil.
The US and the West are encouraging Ukraine and Israel to take up the sword, without understanding that this would be an act of collective suicide.
Because he who takes up the sword shall perish by the sword.
[Salon] If Israel Attacks Iran, Russia is not going to stay on the Sideline - Guest Post by Mike Whitney
If Israel Attacks Iran, Russia is not going to stay on the Sideline
Mike Whitney • October 12, 2024
I don’t think there is an implicit obligation for the United States to follow like a stupid mule whatever the Israelis do. If they decide to start a war, simply on the assumption that we’ll automatically be drawn into it, I think it is the obligation of friendship to say, ‘you’re not going to be making a national decision for us.’ I think that the United States has the right to have its own national security policy.” Zbigniew Brzezinski
The US foreign policy establishment used to include men who were capable of strategic thinking. No more. What passes for strategic thinking now is the endless reiteration of Israeli talking points uttered by retired generals who are owned by the weapons industry and the Israeli lobby. These men—who represent the views of an infinitesimal percentage of the overall population—are an essential part of the larger machine that prepares the public for intervention, escalation and war. Their current assignment is to convince the American people that Israel’s impending attack on Iran serves America’s national security interests which, of course, it doesn’t. In fact, the country is being boondoggled into a bloody conflagration that will, in all probability, precipitate a sharp decline in US global power followed by a swift end to the so-called American Century.
All of this was forecast by one of America’s most scholarly foreign policy analysts, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who delievered a warning on the topic of Iran more than a decade ago in an op-ed in the Los Angeles Times. Here’s what he said:
….an attack on Iran would be an act of political folly, setting in motion a progressive upheaval in world affairs. With the U.S. increasingly the object of widespread hostility, the era of American preponderance could even come to a premature end. Although the United States is clearly dominant in the world at the moment, it has neither the power nor the domestic inclination to impose and then to sustain its will in the face of protracted and costly resistance….
It is therefore high time for the administration to sober up and think strategically, with a historic perspective and the U.S…. It’s time to cool the rhetoric. The United States should not be guided by emotions or a sense of a religiously inspired mission… our choice is either to be stampeded into a reckless adventure profoundly damaging to long-term U.S. national interests or to become serious about giving negotiations with Iran a genuine chance…..
Treating Iran with respect and within a historical perspective would help to advance that objective. American policy should not be swayed by the current contrived atmosphere of urgency ominously reminiscent of what preceded the misguided intervention in Iraq. Been there, done that, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Los Angeles Times
Well said. One can only wish that the lamebrain pundits on cable news would circulate the article among themselves.
Like him or hate him, Brzezinski provided a coherent, well-researched analysis that dispassionately evaluated whether the costs of a particular operation were greater than the benefits. In this case, there is simply no comparison. The US is rushing towards a conflict that serves no national interest, that it can’t win, and that will have a catastrophic impact on the nation’s future. Here’s Brzezinski again:
We do not need to increase the scale of the conflict in the region because an increase in that conflict involving the Iranians …would likely reignite the conflict in Iraq, would set the Persian Gulf ablaze, would increase the price of oil 2-fold, 3-fold, 4-fold...Europe would become even more dependent on Russia for its energy…. So, what is the benefit to us?
All I know as an analyst of international politics is (a war with Iran) this would be a disaster. And, frankly, I think it will be a disaster for us more than for Israel because, as a result of the war…. we will be forced out of the region... because of the dynamic hatred that develops. And, have no illusions about it, if the conflict spreads, we’re going to be alone… And if we are driven out, how much would you bet on the survival of Israel for more than five or ten years? Zbigniew Brzezinski, Real News Network, 2:15 min
Video Link
So, it would not just be disastrous for the United States, but disastrous for Israel as well, which—absent Washington’s “unconditional” support—would wither on the vine in 5 or 10 years. Perhaps, there are some who would disagree with this analysis? Perhaps there are some who think that a tiny belligerent colony at the heart of the Arab world—that has made every effort to make itself a damned nuisance for the last 75 years—could survive without US assistance?
It’s possible, I suppose. But not likely. This is from an article at NBC News on Saturday:
U.S. officials believe Israel has narrowed down what they will target in their response to Iran’s attack, which these officials describe as Iranian military and energy infrastructure.
There is no indication that Israel will target nuclear facilities or carry out assassinations, but U.S. officials stressed that the Israelis have not made a final decision about how and when to act….
The U.S. does not know when Israel’s response could come but officials said the Israeli military is poised and ready to go at any time once the order is given….U.S. and Israeli officials said a response could come during the Yom Kippur holiday. ..
The U.S. is poised to defend its assets in the region from any immediate counterattack from Iran but is not likely to provide direct military support to the operation.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, last night and they discussed broad strokes about an Israeli response. However, it’s not clear that Gallant provided any concrete details. NBC News
On Saturday, more than 10 articles appeared on Google News with the exact same byline: “Israel has narrowed down what they will target.” The impression this mantra is supposed to create is that Israel’s blatant act of aggression is actually a measured and thoughtful act of self-defense. What a joke; and what a humiliation for the Biden administration who are not even informed as to how their bombs, their jets, their refueling aircraft, and their logistical support are going to be used. When did the US become such a spineless patsy that allows itself to be pushed around by the gangsters in Tel Aviv? It’s shocking.
What’s lost in the hullabaloo surrounding Israel’s upcoming attack on Iran, is the fact that Russia has been stealthily conducting its own diplomatic campaign aimed at strengthening Iran’s defenses and preparing for the hostilities ahead.
On Friday, Putin met with Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan to discuss the deteriorating situation in the Middle East and the probability of a regional war. The carefully choreographed meeting was intended to show that Russia regards Iran as both a friend and ally who can depend on Russia’s support if hostilities break out. Hours earlier, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued an ominous warning that an Israeli strike on Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities would constitute a “serious provocation.”
Speaking at a news conference in Laos, Lavrov emphasized that—according to the International Atomic Energy Agency—Iran has remained compliant with current regulations and has not diverted any nuclear material to banned weapons programs. (Israel’s spurious claims on this matter are pure propaganda.)
If any plans or threats to attack the Islamic Republic of Iran’s peaceful nuclear facilities are realized, it would indeed be a very serious provocation.
Between Lavrov’s comments and Putin’s meeting, there’s little doubt that Moscow supports Iran in its clash with Israel although it is not possible to know whether Russia will actively intervene if war breaks out. (We should also remember that Russia’s Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visited Tehran just two days before Iran launched its ballistic missile attack on Israel. This suggests that Iran got the green light from Moscow to take action that corresponds with Putin’s idea of a “proportionate response.”)
The point we’re making, is that Russia is following developments very closely and has moved military assets to within range of the prospective battlespace. It is logical to assume that Russia will engage Iran’s enemies if that is what the situation requires. Military analyst Will Schryver summed it up like this:
I cannot understand how more people do not fully appreciate that fighting alongside Iran against the empire is not a choice for Russia, but an existential imperative. It is also something for which the Russians have feverishly prepared since no later than the summer of 2022 Will Schryver
Keep in mind, Russia and Iran have significantly strengthened their military ties over the last few years to the point they are openly committed to each other’s security. Here’s Schryver again:
Russia, China, and Iran have now formed a de facto military and economic alliance — what they prefer to call a “partnership”. In the case of Russia and China, a comprehensive full-spectrum partnership has emerged: military, economic, and monetary….
Russia, China, and Iran conduct regular joint exercises in the Arabian Sea. Those exercises have increased in both scope and frequency in recent years.
Both Russia and China are investing vast sums of capital in Iran, much of it in the energy sector and in ambitious transportation projects aiming to construct fast and efficient trade corridors linking China, Iran, and Russia as primary nodes of Eurasian commerce… Arms and technology transfers between the three countries have reached unprecedented levels….
It is increasingly evident that Russia, China, and Iran recognize that an attack against any one of them would constitute an existential threat to them all.The strategic interests of all three countries are now inextricably intertwined. Most importantly, they are united in a single overriding strategic objective: to dismantle the dominion of the long-reigning Anglo-American empire….
In a putative war between the United States and Iran, both Russia and China would actively support Iran… Iran would simply be supplemented with arms and other logistical necessities from both its partners — and quite possibly taken under their nuclear umbrella in an explicit act of deterrence.
To the extent Russia, China, and Iran are determined to act all for one and one for all, they represent a combination of global military and economic power that cannot be defeated. All for One and One for All, Will Schryver, Twitter
Schryver’s view is shared by a great many analysts who (naturally) are banned from sharing their opinions in the major media. But that doesn’t change the underlying fact that Russia and Iran are strategic allies that will intervene militarily if they find themselves in peril.
It’s worth noting, that Iran provides China with 15 percent of its oil (China’s top oil producer), is an active participant in the International North–South Transport Corridor (which is a 4500 mile long multi-mode network of ship, rail, and road route for moving freight between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and Europe.), and is “situated at the crossroads of Central Asia, South Asia, and the Arab states of the Middle East.” Iran’s strategic positioning and its vast natural resources make it a critical part of the emerging multipolar world order that is fast replacing Washington’s threadbare rules-based system. Neither Russia nor China can allow Iran to be decimated or its government to be ousted. Here’s more background from author Dr Digby James Wren on Substack:
Russia’s president has authorized the signing of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with Iran. This follows a Tehran visit by the secretary of the Russian Security Council, preceded by a trip to St. Petersburg by the Iranian national security advisor…. Putin …. reportedly describing it as “expedient” and to be signed “at the highest level.“…
According to Iranian media, Putin hailed the “strategic” relations between Tehran and Moscow, which he said had grown stronger in recent years…. Relations between Moscow and Tehran have deepened considerably since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022.
Cooperation between the two countries has become particularly pronounced in the military domain. Iran has supplied drones to Russia, which have reportedly been deployed against Ukraine. Additionally, Iran is believed to be supporting Russia’s efforts to localize drone production….
“Relations with Iran are a priority for us,” Putin told Pezeshkian...
Reports also emerged in August about alleged Russian arms shipments being delivered to Iran. The New York Times cited Iranian officials at the time as saying that Russia had begun to transfer advanced radar and air defense equipment to Tehran following a request made to the Kremlin. Persian Fire, Dr Digby James Wren, Substack
In other words, Putin anticipated the crisis that is unfolding today and began vigorously shoring up Iran’s defenses. Now, they are ready to go. Check it out:
The Supreme Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin discussed the situation in the Middle East and… set tasks that could only be discussed face to face. …. We will monitor the development of events; the army is combat ready, (and) the initiative is on our side… Victory will be ours, maybe not quickly, but we will definitely win. ⁃ Andrey Gurulev, Russian Lieutenant General @DD_Geopolitics
What we should expect now, is an Israeli attack on Iran’s vital infrastructure amplified by a decapitation operation aimed at its political and military leaders. The attack will have to exceed what US advisors have suggested in order to increase the chances of an exaggerated retaliation from Iran that will prompt Washington’s entry into the war. (which is Israel’s main objective) Iran’s response will be shaped in part by Russia who will emphasize a ‘proportionate response’. Putin will give Israel and the United States every opportunity to ‘lower the temperature’ and deescalate, but if they decide to intensify their attacks, we should expect the worst-case scenario.
There’s no way the United States comes out of a war with Iran unscathed. These are momentous times in which the cornerstone upon which the old order rests, is disintegrating before our eyes.
Saturday, October 12, 2024
Max Blumenthal on X: "Israeli media reports the Pentagon will deploy American soldiers to operate the THAAD anti-missile system, which would make the US directly involved in any Israeli attack on Iran. The Pentagon denies such a decision has been made, but the move is under consideration. So what" / X
Friday, October 11, 2024
High Death Toll
link.foreignpolicy.com/view/644279f41a7f1f1e29de6831m246e.ncy/7d299ec2
https://link.foreignpolicy.com/view/644279f41a7f1f1e29de6831m246e.ncy/7d299ec2
[Salon] WHY ISRAEL IS GOING TO BOMB IRAN'S NUCLEAR FACILITIES - Guest Post by Graham Fuller
WHY ISRAEL IS GOING TO BOMB IRAN'S NUCLEAR FACILITIES
Graham E Fuller
12 October 2024
The chances are high that Israel is going to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities in the very near future. The rationale is extensive and compelling.
1- Because Israel can. The Israeli military possesses all the necessary aircraft and weaponry to attack and largely obliterate Iranian nuclear facilities.
2- Because no one can or will stop Israel from carrying out such an operation. Biden claims that he is opposed to any such step by Israel, but such claims are scarcely credible when the US has consistently backed Israel's genocidal policies against Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and broad civilian targets in Lebanon. No one will believe that Washington is not giving Israel the wink to go ahead via back channels. In point of fact, it would be nearly impossible for Washington to stop any such Israeli operation short of Requiring the disavowal of Israel's entire strategic game In the region up to now – which Washington has not done and will not do.
Does anyone really believe that once Israel has carried out the destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities that Washington would then move to punish Israel for or its act?
Such a proposition is laughable. Whatever Washington's public statements might be it is eminently clear that the entire Washington foreign policy establishment would privately applaud such an action by Israel, as will virtually every member of the US Congress, Israel would clearly be able to "get away with" any such action and indeed gain much private support in the US and even parts of Europe.
3- Such a military act is entirely consistent with Netanyahu's performance up-to-date. Although he has not actually uttered the words, to anyone following Natania's lifelong career it is clear that he sees this moment of conflict in the Middle East as a culmination of everything he has worked for. No, not regional peace, but for final total Israeli domination of the entire region.
Netanyahu surely knows that he has alienated large numbers of people in the west, including considerable number of Jews who condemn him for his blood thirsty acts of ethnic cleansing among Palestinians within Israel. Netanyahu is clearly prepared to take the hit, but he also has a clear eye on the history books. While many liberals in the West may condemn his policies, he is confident tat in the long view of history, he will be viewed in Israeli history as the single most important Israeli leader in the history of the nation who brought to fruition the grand vision of a Greater Israel. And meanwhile, such act also keep him in power and out of jail.
4- while any geostrategic observer of the Middle East knows that "history never stops," it is now more abundantly clear than ever that the impulses of vengeance across Arab and other Muslim world in the Middle East will be on high boil for generations. Just think of the number of Gazans alone who have lost fathers, sons, babies, mothers, daughters, grandparents and other relatives under the unremitting Israeli onslaught. Hardly everyone will seek personal blood vengeance from Israeli or Jewish individuals, but if even one out of 10 Gazans will act out of revenge, that presents a formidable long-term terrorist threat, not just to Jews, but to the West and especially America that is so deeply complicit in the spilling of Muslim blood. And it goes without saying that while the number of genuine antisemites in the world may not be that many, their numbers are on the rise given the new "justification"of their anti-Semitic views through the horrors of the Middle East war. This will be a devastating long-term legacy of the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians and their many sympathizers. Large numbers of Jews, who have little fondness for Bibi Netanyahu are vividly aware of this rise of spoken, and more importantly, unspoken new reservoir of anti-Semitic feeling.
5- by carrying out the destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel – not officially earmarked by Iran for military purposes – Iran will be for generations bitterly hostile against Israel. And it will certainly find such an attack by Israel to be the single most powerful argument for the continued need for Iran to develop Nuclear weapons – the only guarantee against future Israeli military attack.
6-Although Iran is economically deeply wounded by decades of American punishing sanctions against it, it is one of only two countries in the Middle East that truly matter in a geopolitical arena in the near future. Here Iran would certainly have to rank as number one. Whatever actions taken by Israel against Iran, Tehran will clearly be determined to rebuild it strategic strength. The second significant geopolitical power in the region is Turkey. Turkey has no love for Israel. And ironically, both Turkey and Iran, both of which possess some elements of democratic process within each of their states – have been more outspoken and supportive of the Palestinian cause than any Arab state in the region except for dirt-poor but gutsy Yemen.
7- Authoritarian Arab rulers may publicly wring their hands at Palestinian suffering, but they also deeply fear the Palestinians as representing one of the very few truly mass nationalistic movements in the entire Arab world. The last thing most Arab autocrats want to see is mass political movements emerging in their own countries with blood in their eyes which will lead to their own overthrow from power when not protected by Washington.
8- The same is not true of Arab public opinion itself, or "the Arab Street". Here there are strong pro-Palestinian sympathies who view them as the most prominent of the many victims of western colonial control in the Middle East over decades and centuries. When public opinion begins to be expressed in political action calling for voice in Arab foreign affairs, the Arab world will become a far more dangerous place for Israel – who can right now at least count on rich Gulfi rulers to keep the the emotional power of their own citizens under control. That indeed is a second reason why most Arab rulers fear and dislike the Iranian regime as well--no, not because Iranians are Shiite Muslims , but because Iran is virtually the only country in the Middle East that actually underwent a genuine mass revolution that brought down Americas "best friend in the Middle East", the Shah of Iran.
The current Iranian regime probably has limited numbers of strong supporters within the country. But Iranian nationalism is an exceptionally powerful force – and hass been so for hundreds of years. Even if many of its citizens dislike the clerical regime in Tehran, the destruction by Israel of its nuclear facilities wll be deeply resented as a massive assault against Iranian prestige, power, and dignity. One wonders what the half-life of such anti-Israeli feelings will be over the decades to come in Iran.
Of course, the ultimate absurdity is the idea that Iran, in a post Israeli strike – or even in a situation of collapse of the clerical regime – will suddenly change its colors, rush to embrace Washington, Israel and the west, and disavow any geopolitical role in the region. Indeed, there is no remote reason for believing that a successor regime to the present clerical rulers --probably military --will be any less nationalistic or adventuristic in its foreign policies.
In Netanyahu's thinking, now is probably the best time to strike Iran. The region is in shambles. There is no meaningful international voice being raised against Israel that can or will do anything. Biden and hi
neutered secretary of state Blinken – also known as "Bibi's lawyer" – will only nominally wring their hands at the growing regional instability In which Washington is becoming an evermore irrelevant geopolitical player.
Question: Will Netanyahu decide to strike before, or after the important BRICS Summit coming up in Kazan' Russia in two weeks time? Increasing Israeli military attacks against Muslim countries and societies will be keenly noted in Kazan', especially since large numbers of other BRiCS States also are Muslim and fairly firmly rooted in the growing concept of "the Gobal South."
If Natanyahu strikes Iran before the meeting in Kazan', with Russia and China in attendance such an attack on Iran will have huge impact on the attendees – perhaps precisely what Israel seeks to ensure – that the "Global South" not forget its military weak stance in the world. Perhaps delivering that lesson to a group of states who have no love for Israel in any case– seeing it as a tool of western neo colonial power. –The message of intimidation to them is far more important than any flack against the Israeli state. Washington would largely cheer such a smack down by Israel against the BRICS grouping. On the other hand, if Netanyahu waits until the BRICS summit has passed, the backlash will be less immediate, although certainly will still have longer standing duration.
Either way, this presages a powerful new move towards a new and more durable formation of two Geo political blocks – the declining West, in denial about its own decline, and the emergence of the new powerful political and economic group of the BRICS Which Washington unwisely now seems to perceive as a hostile group. Truly, a self fulfilling prophecy.
If the BRICS grouping is drawn into deeper engagement in the Middle East geopolitical struggle, it will certainly be ever more deeply committed to an anti-Israeli anti-neo colonial anti-western policy. And that will suit Moscow and Beijing just fine – the chief authors of this new international grouping of rising importance.
In short, I believe that the factors pushing Netanyahu to an early attack on Iranian nuclear facilities are greater than ever before. And although Washington supposedly does not want to be drawn into yet another war in the Middle East, if war breaks out between Israel and Iran, you can be sure that Washington will be in the thick of it– Just like Bibi wants it.
Graham E Fuller is a former vice chair of the national intelligence Council at the CIA responsible for long-term global strategic forecasting. He served as an intellence operations officer across much of the Middle East.
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