World Politics Review 5/8

Weekly headlines from World Politics Review.

Editor’s Note Last week’s royal shuffle in Saudi Arabia, in which King Salman named a new crown prince and elevated his own son to deputy crown prince, “is sure to have ripple effects throughout the Middle East and in bilateral relations with the United States,” Brian Katulis and Mokhtar Awad write this week, ahead of next week’s summit with leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council at Camp David. Despite talk of a break in U.S.-Saudi ties over Syria policy, Iran nuclear talks and the Saudi-led war in Yemen, they write, “the reality is that Saudi Arabia has increasingly turned to the U.S. for backing and support.” In his final “Realist Prism” column for WPR, Nikolas Gvosdev asks if U.S. President Barack Obama is about to go transformational. “Obama certainly gives the impression of a president who, freed from the need to be a politician, is ready to become a statesman,” he argues. In our latest feature, Katharina Natter explores an overlooked side of the story of migration from Africa to Europe: the key role Morocco plays as both a transit route and a destination. Finally, this week’s Special Report on Africa’s “presidents for life” includes nine articles on Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Togo and Burkina Faso—all free for non-subscribers for two weeks. Coming up on WPR: Egypt’s politicized judiciary, fracking in Latin America and Japan’s remilitarization. —Frederick Deknatel, Associate Editor WPR Articles May 4, 2015 - May 8, 2015 Small Wars Create Big Problems for U.K.’s Cameron, France’s Hollande By: Richard Gowan | Column David Cameron and Francois Hollande both face criticism for their crisis-intervention responses while in office. The accusations obscure a larger strategic question: What sorts of interventions can Britain, France and their European allies hope to launch with any chance of success in the future? Cracks Appear Within Turkey’s AKP Ahead of Crucial June Elections By: Aaron Stein | Briefing Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party is certain to retain its parliamentary majority in June elections, which will determine President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s future. His proposal to transform Turkey from a parliamentary into a presidential system has proven controversial—including with many founding members of his party. Guinea Protests Unlikely to Advance Opposition Cause By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines For over two weeks, Guinea’s opposition has taken to the streets to protest the government’s decision to hold presidential elections Oct. 11, violating a 2013 agreement to hold local elections first. But protests are unlikely to sway the government and could turn public option against the opposition. Term-Limit Ruling Is Another Nail in the Coffin of Honduran Democracy By: Dana Frank | Briefing The Honduran Supreme Court’s decision to throw out a constitutional ban on presidential re-election is another step in the destruction of the rule of law under President Juan Orlando Hernandez. Most ominously, it paves the way for Hernandez’s continued hold on power, while the U.S. is shoring him up as a partner. Will the U.S. Military Continue to Win the Innovation Contest? By: Steven Metz | Column Strategic superiority is not simply a matter of who has the most troops and weapons. It is also about who wins the ongoing contest of military innovation to possess tomorrow’s winning ideas. A few decades ago the U.S. was the undisputed master of this contest. Today, the playing field has leveled. More Game Changer? China’s Ambitious Economic Corridor Plan for Pakistan By: Arif Rafiq | Briefing The 1,800-mile China-Pakistan Economic Corridor could significantly alter the region’s trade, spur the next generation of Chinese growth and lift Pakistan out of its economic slumber. But it faces major challenges, including threats from violent ethnic separatists and jihadis, who will seek to play the role of spoiler. Syria’s Assad Looks Weaker as Currency Slides and Army Fractures By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines Syria’s collapsing currency is the latest sign of Bashar al-Assad’s growing troubles, as a string of rebel victories and rumors of internal discord have exposed more regime weaknesses. Discontent within the fractured and demoralized Syrian army could be as consequential as any rebel advances. Almost Home? Morocco’s Incomplete Migration Reforms By: Katharina Natter | Feature Migration from Africa to Europe is a hotly debated topic, and Morocco plays a key role as both a transit route and a destination. The country’s new migration policy has led to some needed reforms. However, recent raids of irregular migrant settlements suggest the limits of the new policy. Russia Tensions Threaten U.S. Arctic Council Agenda By: Richard Weitz | Column When the U.S. assumed chairmanship of the Arctic Council last month, it declared its top priority to be managing the impact of global climate change on the region in cooperation with the other Arctic countries. But tensions with Russia could impede bilateral cooperation on this and other issues. Burundi Tensions Rise After Court Backs President’s Third Term Bid By: Jonathan W. Rosen | Briefing President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to run for a third term, which Burundi’s Constitutional Court deemed legal this week, has sparked deadly protests and threatened a decade of stability. The protesters’ determination and threats from the ruling party’s armed youth wing suggest more unrest to come. French Surveillance Bill Tries to Address Evolving Terror Threat By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines The French Parliament overwhelmingly approved a bill this week that will give authorities the ability to tap phones and read emails without first getting permission from a judge. The goal is to prevent another Charlie Hebdo attack, but the French public and civil liberties groups have serious concerns. In Final Two Years, Is Obama Ready to Go Transformational? By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column In November 2008, in my first article for World Politics Review, I asked whether the newly elected U.S. President Barack Obama would govern more as a Wilsonian idealist or as a progressive realist when it came to U.S. foreign policy. Six and a half years later, I realize that this was the wrong question to pose. In Troubled West Africa, Ghana Leads the Way on Democracy, Rule of Law By: Frida Ghitis | Column When Freedom House released its latest “Freedom of the Press” report last week, an accompanying color-coded world map carried an almost-hidden surprise: The West African nation of Ghana, it turns out, is an anomaly of freedom in a region where democracy and rule of law have struggled to take root. U.S. Grand Strategy for a Time of Transformation By: Judah Grunstein | Trend Lines With no more elections to contest and no hope of cooperation from a Republican-controlled Congress, U.S. President Barack Obama seems poised to go transformational. To get a sense of what that transformation might or should look like, it helps first to understand what he has tried so far. After Saudi Power Shuffle, New Tests Await U.S.-Saudi Ties By: Brian Katulis, Mokhtar Awad | Briefing King Salman’s power shuffle in Saudi Arabia represented an attempt to stabilize succession and inject a greater sense of stability in the kingdom’s internal affairs. But it also marks an important shift in the monarchy’s trajectory, with ripple effects across the Middle East and in bilateral relations with the U.S.