WPR Weekly April 6, 2015 - April 10, 2015

Editor's Note April 6, 2015 - April 10, 2015 Nuclear Deal Could Reshuffle Political Deck in Iran and Beyond By: Rouzbeh Parsi | Briefing The framework agreement on how to regulate Iran’s nuclear program faces many obstacles before it can be finalized by June 30. To survive the onslaught of spoilers on all sides, however, the permanent deal will need to be sound not only on the technical level, but also on the political level. To Avert Decline, U.S. Must Accept Reality of Multipolarity By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column Several events in the past month, from the Iran talks to the emerging Chinese financial bloc, have raised the question of whether the U.S. has entered the first stages of its decline. Washington will need to rediscover a “multipolar mindset” in order to conduct an effective foreign policy. Unlike Neighbors, Bolivia’s Morales Contains Corruption Fallout By: Michael Shifter, Ben Raderstorf | Briefing After a string of corruption scandals, President Evo Morales’ party lost dramatically in regional elections in Bolivia last week. The losses reflected both a protest vote against corruption within the Movement Toward Socialism and a growing disconnect between support for Morales and rest of his party. Strikes, Protests Signal Political Uncertainty for Gabon’s Bongo By: Oumar Ba | Briefing A series of protests and strikes give all the signs of a looming political crisis ahead of Gabon’s 2016 presidential election. Incumbent President Ali Bongo Ondimba looks set to try and preserve family rule in the oil-rich Central African country at all costs, despite growing unrest and economic malaise. Though Still Repressive, Cuba Slowly Improving Human Rights Record By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last week, officials from the United States and Cuba held their first formal talks on human rights since both sides announced they were working to restore diplomatic ties last December. In an interview, Ted Piccone, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, discussed the human rights situation in Cuba. More Iran Nuclear Deal Reveals Cold War Roots of Obama’s Statesmanship By: Richard Gowan | Column President Barack Obama aspired to be a transformational figure in U.S. politics. Yet when it comes to international affairs, he often harks back to America’s old confrontation with the Soviet Union. The references are no coincidence: Obama’s interest in the lessons of the Cold War clearly runs deep. Though Greatly Weakened, Philippine Communist Insurgency Holds Steady By: The Editors | Trend Lines In late February, communist rebels killed five Philippine soldiers in an ambush in a northern province. In an interview, Patricio Abinales, a professor of Asian studies at the School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the University of Hawaii-Manoa, discussed the Philippine communist insurgency. Egypt Sees Economic, Strategic Rewards in Yemen Campaign By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi is risking Egypt’s involvement in a Saudi-led campaign in Yemen for the economic and strategic rewards of going along with an assertive Saudi agenda. Coupled with a mooted joint Arab military force, it signals a growing alliance between Cairo and Riyadh. For U.S., Dividing China, Russia in Central Asia Easier Said Than Done By: Richard Weitz | Column Recent speeches by senior U.S. officials on Central Asia suggest the U.S. is seeking to use China to check Russia’s resurging influence in the resource-rich region. However, China and Russia’s successful co-management of Central Asia will make it difficult to exploit their modest divisions there. Hybrid Power: The Limits of Russia’s Military Resurgence By: Richard Weitz | Feature Despite the remarkable recovery of its military-industrial complex in the past decade, Russia remains a regional military power with limited global power-projection capabilities. Recognizing the strengths and weaknesses of the Russian defense sector is crucial for assessing a potential Russian military threat. Obama’s Welcome Cyber Sanctions Plan Is Worth Expanding By: Eric Sterner | Briefing On April 1, U.S. President Barack Obama signed an executive order to apply financial sanctions on hackers and companies overseas that benefit from cyberspying. It’s one brick in the foundation of deterrence in cyberspace, but the administration should consider ways to expand its reach through international partnerships. Indonesia, Japan Boost Defense Ties With Wary Eye on China By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last month, Japan and Indonesia signed a defense pact that covers capacity building, peacekeeping and equipment development. In an interview, Zachary Abuza, principal of Southeast Asia Analytics, discussed Japan-Indonesia relations. U.S. Cuba Policy, Human Rights Vie for Spotlight at Americas Summit By: Frida Ghitis | Column The Summit of the Americas, opening in Panama on Friday, was where U.S. President Barack Obama hoped to bask in the triumph of his new Cuba policy. Instead, the event is likely to prove much more diplomatically ambiguous and challenging, as geopolitical and human rights concerns compete for U.S. attention. After Petrocaribe, New Sources Key to Caribbean Energy Security By: Johanna Mendelson Forman | Briefing After a lost decade when easy access to cheap Venezuelan oil undermined incentives to seek alternative sources, the Caribbean now faces deferred decisions on how it buys and uses energy. The region is looking to new energy partners and resources, including its own renewable ones. Iran Deal Opponents Have Forgotten the Logic of Arms Control By: Steven Metz | Column Last week, U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled a diplomatic framework designed to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. But after several decades with no major arms control agreements, the American public and its elected representatives no longer understand the complex logic of arms control.