Russia’s S-300 Sale to Iran: An Expected Surprise
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s
decision to lift a ban on the exports of the S-300 air defense missile system to Iran
has caused shockwaves in the West and Israel. While the timing of the
announcement was a surprise, the Kremlin’s move was quite predictable
with a rather clearly discernible logic behind it.
Why Did Not They Sell Them Earlier?
The story with the S-300s started in the 2000s even though the
Iranian authorities may have fancied buying them for quite some time.
Yet the Russian government signed the contract to supply five batteries
of S-300s only in 2007 when Putin visited Tehran. However, the Kremlin
appeared hesitant to implement the deal as it had doubts about the
intentions of the Iranian authorities regarding their nuclear program.
In 2009 Russian concerns were seriously deepened by the sudden
disclosure of Iranian plans to build a second enrichment factory.
Furthermore, in October–November 2009 Iran suddenly refused to exchange
low-enriched nuclear fuel for high-enriched fuel to supply a Tehran
research reactor under European control. Russia had actively backed the
exchange deal, believing that the fuel swap would not only demonstrate
Iran’s peaceful intentions to the West, but also allay Moscow’s concerns
about the possible use of low-enriched uranium in so-called “dirty
bombs.” Then-President Dmitry Medvedev characterized Iranian behavior at
the time as “inappropriate.” He acknowledged that Tehran was getting
closer to achieving the ability to produce nuclear weapons, and he
considered the adoption of new international sanctions as inevitable, a
state of affairs that led to adoption of two far-reaching UN Security
Council resolutions. On September 22, 2010, Medvedev issued Presidential
Decree 1154, which formally suspended the S-300 sale.
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