WPR Articles This Week Nov. 8, 2014 - Nov. 14, 2014

Articles This Week Nov. 8, 2014 - Nov. 14, 2014

Killing Baghdadi: Decapitating the Islamic State Is No Silver Bullet

By: Steven Metz | Column

Last week, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the self-declared caliph of the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria, was reportedly wounded or killed in a U.S. airstrike. But however appealing it is to decapitate an extremist movement like IS, it is hard to predict the result.

Morocco Deepens Anti-IS Gulf Ties, but Neglects Returning Jihadi Threat

By: Vish Sakthivel | Briefing

Last week, Morocco announced it would increase intelligence and military support to the United Arab Emirates, ramping up its involvement in the coalition against the Islamic State. But that doesn’t address Morocco’s real problem with IS: the alarming number of Moroccans who have joined the group.

Justice Deferred: Rule of Law in Central America

By: Michael Allison | Feature

One of the primary historical causes of political violence in Central America has been the absence of democratic rule of law. Since the 1990s, reformists have mobilized to strengthen institutions in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. However, these efforts have been for the most part unsuccessful.

Big-Power ‘Buffering’ Mechanisms Needed to Manage Era of Disorder

By: Richard Gowan | Column

It is tempting to scrutinize recent developments for clues about the shape of a new world order. Such strategic speculations do not really add up. Instead, complex diplomatic overtures, political compromises and military forays are likely to be the “new normal” of a disorderly world.

Wary of NATO, Russia Loses Sight of China’s Advances in the Arctic

By: Emanuele Scimia | Briefing

In a bid to protect its own interests in the Arctic, and wary of NATO, Russia is set to reactivate former Soviet-era bases around the North Pole. But the Kremlin would do well to look to the actions in the Arctic of its occasional partner and possible future rival, China, rather than those of NATO.

More Botswana’s United Opposition Gains on Ruling Party in Decline By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last month, the ruling Botswana Democratic Party narrowly won a majority of seats in parliament. In an email interview, Gape Kaboyakgosi, senior research fellow at the Botswana Institute for Development and Policy Analysis, discussed Botswana’s domestic politics. Georgia’s Pro-Western Policy Looks to Weather Government Shakeups By: Michael Cecire | Briefing The abrupt firing of Defense Minister Irakli Alasania last week has triggered Georgia’s most serious political crisis since the Georgian Dream-led coalition government came to power in October 2012. But Alasania’s departure is unlikely to disrupt Georgia’s pro-Western foreign policy—for now. New Leadership Unlikely to Shift Priorities for Pakistan’s ISI By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last week, Lt. Gen. Rizwan Akhtar took over as head of Pakistan’s Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). In an email interview, Frederic Grare, senior associate and director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s South Asia program, discussed the evolution of ISI. Reforming Defense Export Controls Could Unite Obama, GOP Congress By: Richard Weitz | Column In the aftermath of the U.S. midterm congressional elections, the Obama administration’s ability to work with the new Republican-majority Congress has become a central question. One area where such cooperation will be crucial is in reforming export controls on defense equipment and technology. Natural Gas Fight Dampens Any Optimism for Cyprus Reunification By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines Last month, Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades suspended peace talks with northern Cyprus when Turkey announced plans to search for oil and gas off the southern coast of Cyprus, squashing optimism from earlier this year that a reunification deal could be reached. Podemos’ Rise in Spain Challenges Two-Party Stranglehold on Power By: Omar G. Encarnación | Briefing A recent poll suggested that Podemos, a new left-wing party, was poised to win Spain’s 2015 national elections. Podemos has captured the political zeitgeist, capitalizing on the crisis of credibility confronting Spain’s two dominant political parties amid corruption scandals and economic stagnation. Weakened by Midterms at Home, Obama Faces Credibility Gap Abroad By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column Two major summits—the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting and the Group of 20 (G-20)—come on the heels of President Barack Obama’s apparent repudiation at the hands of the American electorate. Obama must now reassure partners and make clear to rivals that he will not be a lame duck. Houthi Rise in Yemen Puts Saudi Arabia, Iran on Crash Course By: Frida Ghitis | Column One look at a map shows why Yemen has the potential to create serious problems not just for its neighbors but also for the global economy. The country’s troubles have escaped the spotlight mostly because the troubles elsewhere in the region look more acute. That, however, is likely to change. U.S. Reform Agenda in Myanmar on Shaky Ground By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines Yesterday, U.S. President Barack Obama arrived in Myanmar, where he will attend the East Asia Summit and the U.S.-ASEAN summit. The visit, two years after Obama’s first to the country, comes amid growing concerns over Rohingya minority rights and stalled constitutional reform. Accountability, Stability at Stake in Romania’s Presidential Election By: Andrew MacDowall | Briefing Prime Minister Victor Ponta is widely expected to win Romania’s run-off presidential election Sunday, but he has faced a closer race than anticipated. Critics fear that a Ponta victory could lead to greater impunity for a discredited political elite or even a shift toward greater authoritarianism.