WPR Articles Oct. 6, 2014 - Oct. 10, 2014

Islamic State’s Threat to Jordan Could Drag Israel Into Syria’s Conflict

By: Brent E. Sasley | Briefing

In the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State, Israel has remained aloof. While not a direct threat to Israel, IS poses an indirect threat in neighboring Jordan, its longstanding security buffer, where Israel could be dragged into the fight against the militant group.

Now Is Not the Time for a 'Grand Bargain' With Russia

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Throughout the Ukrainian crisis, Russia has shown little concern for international agreements and institutions. Some observers even suggest changing the international system to recognize Russia’s national interests. But there are at least five good reasons not to do so at this time.

U.S. Policy on Myanmar Under Fire as Promise of Reform Dims

By: Prashanth Parameswaran | Briefing

With debate increasing over U.S. policy in Myanmar, developments in the country have taken some shine off the promise of reforms. For some, the Obama administration has done too much too soon, leaving the U.S. with little leverage to address democracy and human rights concerns.

Iraq’s Limited Air Power Constrains Ability to Fight Islamic State

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Rick Brennan, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and former senior adviser to the U.S. military in Iraq from 2006-2011, discussed the current air capabilities of the Iraqi military and its significance for both internal security and external defense.

‘Grand Bargain’ in Yemen, Iraq Latest Sign of Iran-Saudi Arabia Thaw

By: Nader Habibi | Briefing

Potential rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia is both significant and surprising, with implications for the entire Middle East. In Iraq and Yemen, it appears that both countries are reassessing the costs and benefits of their escalating cold war, and are finally open to compromises.

More For New Syrian Rebel Coalition, Results Trump Ideology By: Sam Heller | Briefing In the besieged suburbs of Damascus, a rebel coalition has rallied behind Zahran Alloush, a controversial Salafist commander. Alloush’s rise atop the mix of factions is another example of how results, not ideology, are the currency of legitimacy for Syria’s rebels. Modi’s Visit Shows Promise of Renewing U.S.-India Ties By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the U.N. General Assembly, met with business leaders in New York and held talks with President Obama in Washington. Though no concrete deals were made, there was progress on improving the strained relationship between India and the U.S. After Modi Visit, U.S. and India Must Put ‘Natural Partnership’ Into Practice By: Richard Weitz | Column Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the U.S. last week garnered massive attention in the runup to the trip, but little coverage since then. This is mainly due to the limited results achieved by the visit, compared to the expectations of what some hoped it might achieve. Closing the Door: South Africa’s Draconian Immigration Reforms By: James Hamill | Feature Recent reforms to South Africa’s immigration regime threaten to disadvantage African immigrants seeking to enter or remain in the country. The changes flow from the privileging of a narrow nationalism at the expense of the pan-Africanist ideology supposedly informing South Africa’s public policy. Angola Modernizes Navy to Protect Maritime Resources By: Francisco Galamas | Briefing Last month, in another sign of their strategic partnership, Brazil and Angola signed an agreement for the Brazilian navy to support the development of Angola’s naval capabilities. The deal fits into Angola’s broader strategy to secure its maritime borders and safeguard its oil and fishing resources. Modi’s Visit Foreshadows Challenges for ‘Lame Duck’ Obama By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column Last week’s meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington provides a convenient benchmark to assess where U.S. foreign policy is and how it is likely to be conducted in the remaining time allotted to the Obama administration. Bolivia’s Morales Set to Ride Pragmatic Populism to Landslide By: Michael Shifter, Murat Dagli | Briefing Despite constitutional questions about his candidacy and authoritarian tendencies, Bolivian President Evo Morales appears headed for a landslide electoral victory. But his popularity rests on how well he addresses troubles ahead, which could spike if gas prices fall and democratic demands grow. Expect Surprises as Iran Prepares for Khamenei’s Successor By: Frida Ghitis | Column In the not too distant future, a major change will take place at the top of Iran’s power hierarchy. But as there is no way of knowing exactly who will become the Islamic Republic’s third supreme leader, the West would do well to avoid self-assured pronouncements on the matter. Mexico Army Slayings Raise Doubts About Accountability, Rule of Law By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines The killing of 22 suspected gang members by Mexican soldiers, three of whom are charged with homicide, once again raises questions of accountability for Mexico’s army. It also changes the subject from President Enrique Pena Nieto’s economic reforms to fundamental doubts about the rule of law. U.S. Partnerships With Turkey, India ‘Pivotal’ to Strategic Success By: Steven Metz | Column “Pivotal” partnerships involve nations with significant military and economic power, but an indeterminate relationship to the U.S. To a great degree, they will determine whether U.S. strategy succeeds or fails. Today, America’s two most important such partners are India and Turkey. Bolivia, ALBA Left Succeed With Pragmatic Authoritarian Model By: Michael Shifter, Murat Dagli | Briefing With Bolivian President Evo Morales poised to win a third term in office, ALBA—the anti-American coalition of leftist governments to which Bolivia belongs—has lost much of its force. But Bolivia and other ALBA members are presenting the U.S. with another set of challenges.