Presents
The Sixth Annual Terrorism Conference
Implications of the Arab Spring for Insurgencies,
the Jihadist Movement and al-Qaeda
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
8:30 A.M.–4:30 P.M.
Root Conference Room
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, D.C. 20036-2109
Agenda
Registration
8:00 A.M.–8:30 A.M.
***
Welcome
8:30 A.M.–8:40 A.M.
Glen E. Howard
President, The Jamestown Foundation
***
Panel One:
The Periphery and the Core: The Evolution of AQ and Its Affiliates
8:40 A.M.–10:00 A.M.
David Kilcullen
President and CEO of Caerus Associates
Bruce Hoffman
Director, Center for Security Studies,
Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University &
Board Member, The Jamestown Foundation
Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution
& Board Member, Jamestown Foundation
Q & A
***
Coffee Break:
10:00 A.M.–10:20 A.M.
***
Morning Keynote: The Tribal Reaction to the Syrian Uprising
10:20 A.M.–10:50 A.M.
Sheikh Falah Ajil Abdul Karim al-Jarba
“The Impact of the Uprising on Syrian Tribes and Cross Border Considerations”
Sheikh of the Shammar Tribe, Syria
Q & A
***
Panel Two:
The Syrian Uprising: Militant Magnet and Regional Reactions
10:50 A.M.–12:15 P.M.
Chris Zambelis
“A Highly Complex Insurgency: Analyzing the Various Militant Strains
of the Syrian Uprising”
Senior Analyst, Helios Global, Inc.
Nick Heras
“The Syrian Uprising and Its Impact on Lebanon”
Jamestown Middle East Analyst
Carole O’Leary
“The Impact of the Uprising on Syria’s Tribes and its Cross-Border Impact”
Visiting Scholar, Catholic University’s Columbus School of Law
Emrullah Uslu
“The Syrian Uprising and Turkey’s Struggles with the PKK”
Assistant Professor, Yeditepe University, Istanbul. Turkey
Moderator: Carole O’Leary
Q & A
***
Luncheon
12:15 P.M.–1:00 P.M.
***
Luncheon Keynote
1:00 P.M.–1:45 P.M.
Ambassador Maher El-Adawy
"The Future of Egyptian-American Security Cooperation"
Deputy Foreign Minister
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Egypt
Q & A
***
Intermission
1:45 P.M.–2:00 P.M.
***
Panel Three:
AQ Affiliates and Jihadist Strategies: From North Africa to the Sahel
2:00 P.M.–3:00 P.M.
Michael W. Ryan
“Is There a New Jihadist Threat? Lessons from Libya and Egypt”
Senior Fellow, The Jamestown Foundation
Dario Cristiani
“Militant Threats in Post-Qaddafi Libya”
Doctoral Candidate at King’s College, University of London
Andrew McGregor
“The Jihadist Movement in Mali: From Smuggling to State-Building”
Senior Editor, Jamestown’s Global Terrorism Analysis program
Jacob Zenn
“The Evolution, Expansion and Trajectory of the Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria”
Analyst, The Jamestown Foundation
Moderator: TBA
Q & A
***
Concluding Remarks
3:30 P.M.–4:15 P.M.
General Michael Hayden
“Post-Election, Post-Bin Laden, Post-Benghazi: Where to Now?”
Former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Q & A
***
Conclusion
4:15 P.M.
Participant Biographies
Maher El-Adawy
Ambassador
Maher El-Adawy currently serves as Deputy Assistant Foreign Minister of
Egypt based in Cairo and had previously served as the Egyptian
Ambassador to Liberia. He has held long-term diplomatic posts in
Germany, Uruguay, Ghana, Sweden, Yemen, and Ethiopia. Additionally, he
has held short-term Assignments at the German Institute for
International Development, the Egyptian Mission to the UN in New York,
and the National Defense University in Washington.
Dario Cristiani
Dario Cristiani is an expert on militant groups in North Africa and a frequent contributor to Jamestown’s publications Eurasia Daily Monitor, Terrorism Monitor and Militant Leadership Monitor.
He is a Ph.D. Researcher at King's College, University of London and
senior analyst at the Global Governance Institute in
Brussels. Previously, he was a teaching fellow in Political Science and
Comparative Politics at the University of Naples L'Orientale in Italy.
His main areas of expertise are Security, Politics and International
Relations in North Africa and the wider Mediterranean region, Political
and Economic Risk, and EU Foreign Policy.
Michael V. Hayden
General
Michael V. Hayden (USAF Ret.) served as Director of the Central
Intelligence Agency from 2006 to 2009 and was responsible for overseeing
the collection of information concerning the plans, intentions and
capabilities of America’s adversaries, producing timely analysis for
decision makers, and conducting covert operations to thwart terrorists
and other enemies of the United States. Before becoming Director of the
CIA, General Hayden served as the country’s first Principal Deputy
Director of National Intelligence—and was the highest-ranking
intelligence officer in the armed forces. Earlier, he served as
Commander of the Air Intelligence Agency,
Director of the Joint Command and Control Warfare Center, Director of
the National Security Agency from 1999 to 2005, and Chief of the Central
Security Service. General Hayden graduated from Duquesne University
with a bachelor’s degree in history in 1967 and a master’s degree in
modern American history in 1969. He was a distinguished graduate of the
university’s ROTC program, and began his active military service in
1969. General Hayden is currently a principal at the Chertoff Group in
Washington, D.C., and a Board Member at The Jamestown Foundation.
Nicholas A. Heras
Nicholas
A. Heras is an independent analyst and consultant on Middle Eastern
affairs. Heras was a National Security Education Program (NSEP) David
L. Boren Fellow based in Beirut, Lebanon, from 2010 to 2011, in addition
to which he has almost two years of field experience researching the
politics of identity, culture, and socio-economics throughout Lebanon.
He also has extensive field experience in all regions of Syria, with a
particular focus on restive, rural disadvantaged areas, Syrian Arab
tribalism, and the politics of ethnic and sectarian mobilization
throughout the country. Heras is a regular contributor to The Jamestown
Foundation publication Terrorism Monitor,
Fair Observer and other publications, on issues of pressing
importance to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and the Gulf countries. He
holds a B.A. in International Relations and an M.A. in International
Communication from the American University (D.C.).
Bruce Hoffman
Professor
Bruce Hoffman is a Board Member of The Jamestown Foundation. He has
been studying terrorism and insurgency for more than thirty
years. Professor Hoffman is currently a tenured professor at Georgetown
University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service where he is also
the Director of both the Center for Security Studies and the Security
Studies Program. Professor Hoffman previously held the Corporate Chair
in Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency at the RAND Corporation and
was also Director of RAND’s Washington, D.C., Office.
Professor
Hoffman was Scholar-in-Residence for Counterterrorism at the Central
Intelligence Agency between 2004 and 2006. He was also adviser on
counterterrorism to the Office of National Security Affairs, Coalition
Provisional Authority, Baghdad, Iraq, during the spring of 2004 and from
2004 to 2005 was an adviser on counterinsurgency to the Strategy,
Plans, and Analysis Office at Multi-National Forces-Iraq Headquarters,
Baghdad. Professor Hoffman was also an adviser to the Iraq Study Group.
Sheikh Falah Ajil Abdul Karim al-Jarba
Sheikh
Falah is the leader of the largest tribe in Syria, the al-Shammar
tribe. He is the son of the now deceased paramount sheikh of the Shammar
of Syria, Sheikh Ajil, who died in 2007. In 2004, following the
infamous Arab-Kurdish “soccer” riot in Qamishly, northern Syria, Syrian
President Bashar Assad
attempted to persuade Sheikh Falah’s father to take up arms against the
Kurds, but he refused, saying, “We are all one community–we Arabs have
lived with our fellow Kurds for hundreds of years.”
David Kilcullen
Dr.
David Kilcullen is one of the world’s leading experts on insurgencies
and counter-insurgencies. He is the founding President and CEO of Caerus Associates,
a strategic design consultancy with a focus on the overlapping problems
of conflict, climate change, energy, health and governance. Dr.
Kilcullen also
serves as an advisor to NATO and a consultant to the U.S. and allied
governments, international institutions, industry and NGOs, in conflict
and post-conflict environments and the developing world. Dr. Kilcullen
is also an Adjunct Professor at the School
of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. Before
joining the private sector, Dr. Kilcullen had a distinguished career in
the Australian and United States governments, including 22 years as a
light infantry officer in the Australian Army, during which he served in
counterinsurgency, stability operations, peace operations and military
advisory roles in Southeast Asia, the Pacific and the Middle East.
After
leaving the Army, Dr. Kilcullen served in Australia’s Office of
National Assessments, then with the U.S. State Department. He first
served as Chief Strategist in the Office of the Coordinator for
Counterterrorism and then as Special Adviser for Counterinsurgency to
the Secretary of State. He served in the Iraq War as Senior
Counterinsurgency Adviser to General David Petraeus during the
successful 2007 “surge” and in Afghanistan as Counterinsurgency Adviser
to the NATO International Security Assistance Force during 2009–2010. He
was a member of the White House review of Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy
in 2008, and he has advised the highest levels of
the Bush and Obama administrations.
Dr.
Kilcullen’s academic background is in the political anthropology of
conflict in traditional societies. His doctoral dissertation, completed
in 2000, is a study of the impact of insurgency on political
development, and it draws on extended residential fieldwork with
guerrillas, militias and local people in remote parts of Indonesia, New
Guinea and East Timor. He is a Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society,
regularly teaches and presents at academic institutions and industry
conferences worldwide, and he is the author of numerous scholarly
articles and books, including The Accidental Guerrilla (2009), Counterinsurgency (2010) and Out of the
Mountains (forthcoming), all from Oxford University Press.
Andrew McGregor
Dr. Andrew McGregor is a Senior Editor for Jamestown’s Global Terrorism
Analysis program. He is also the Director of Aberfoyle International
Security, a Toronto-based agency specializing in security issues related
to the Islamic world. He received a Ph.D. from the University of
Toronto’s Department of Near and Middle Eastern Civilizations in 2000
and is a former Research Associate of the Canadian Institute of
International Affairs. In October 2007, McGregor took over as managing
editor of the Jamestown Foundation’s Global Terrorism Analysis
publications. He is the author of an archaeological history of Darfur
published by Cambridge University in 2001 and publishes frequently
on international security issues. His latest book is A Military History of Modern Egypt,
published by Praeger Security International in 2006. McGregor provides
commentary on military and security issues for newspapers (including the
New York Times, USA Today, and The Financial Times),
as well as making frequent appearances on radio (BBC, CBC Radio, VOA,
Radio Canada International) and television (CBC Newsworld, CTV Newsnet,
Foxnews and others).
Carole O’Leary
Carole
O’Leary is a Visiting Scholar at the Program in Law & Religion at
Catholic University’s Columbus School of Law. Professor O’Leary is
currently involved in a project to study religious freedom in the
Kurdistan Region of Iraq, with a particular focus on the Christian
communities there. Since 2003, she has been involved in a series of
ongoing and related research projects focusing on understanding the
sociopolitical and leadership role of Arab tribal networks, working in
region with tribes from Iraq, Syria, Jordan and neighboring countries.
O’Leary also organized and led two teams of civic education and human
rights experts (2006–2010), working on human
rights, democracy and voter education, under grants from the U.S.
Department of State.
O’Leary
was an adjunct professorial lecturer at American University’s School of
International Service in 1995–2011, appointed to the Division of
International Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR). Professor O’Leary
was also a Scholar-in-Residence from 1996 to 2011 at the former Center
for Global Peace. She was also a member of the first Iraq Working Group
at the United States Institute of Peace and an outside advisor to the
U.S. Department of State Future of Iraq Project (2003), on education and
governance. Among her publications, O'Leary is the author of “The Kurds
of Iraq: Recent History, Future Prospects,” published in the Middle East Review of
International Affairs (MERIA) Journal in December 2002. With Charles MacDonald, she is the co-editor of Kurdish Identity: Human Rights and Political Status (University Press of Florida, October 2007).
Bruce Riedel
Bruce Riedel is a Senior Fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East
Policy at the Brookings Institution. He retired in 2006 after 30 years
service at the Central Intelligence Agency including postings overseas.
Riedel was a senior advisor on South Asia and the Middle East to four
Presidents of the United States in the staff of the National Security
Council at the White House. He was a negotiator at several Arab-Israeli
peace summits, including at Camp David and Wye River. He was also Deputy
Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Near East and South Asia at the
Pentagon and a senior advisor at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
in Brussels. In January 2009, President Barack Obama asked Mr.
Riedel to chair a review of American policy toward Afghanistan and
Pakistan, the results of which the President announced in a speech on
March 27, 2009. In 2011 he served as an expert advisor to the
prosecution of al-Qaeda terrorist Omar Farooq Abdulmutallab in Detroit.
In December 2011, Prime Minister David Cameron asked him to brief the
United Kingdom’s National Security Council in London on Pakistan.
Mr. Riedel is the author of The Search for al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology and Future and Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of the Global Jihad. He is a contributor to Which Path to Persia: Options for a New American Strategy Toward Iran, The Arab Awakening and Becoming Enemies: U.S.-Iran Relations and the Iran-Iraq War, 1979–1988.
He teaches at the Johns Hopkins University School for Advanced
International Studies. He is a graduate of Brown (B.A.), Harvard (M.A.)
and the Royal College of Defense Studies in London.
Michael W. S. Ryan
Dr. Michael W.S. Ryan is a Senior Fellow at The Jamestown Foundation and an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute. He is the author of the forthcoming book, Decoding al-Qaeda's Strategy: The Deep Battle Against America, to be published by Columbia University Press. The book examines al-Qaeda’s
political military strategy based upon Arabic-language sources. Dr.
Ryan also acts as an independent consultant and researcher on Middle
Eastern security
issues.
Dr.
Ryan served as Senior Vice President at The Middle East Institute in
Washington, D.C. (2008–2009). The White House appointed him as Vice
President in The Millennium Challenge Corporation (2006–2008).
Previously, Dr. Ryan held senior positions in the Departments of State,
Defense, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency after joining the
U.S. federal government in 1979 as a Middle East/North Africa analyst
for the Department of Defense.
In
1981, Dr. Ryan earned a Ph.D. from the Department of Near Eastern
Languages and Civilizations at Harvard University. During his graduate
study, he spent three years in Egypt under Fulbright, Smithsonian, and
Center for Arabic Study Abroad fellowships. He was also a fellow at The
American Research Center in Egypt during this period. He received his
undergraduate degree from St. John’s College in Annapolis, Maryland.
Emrullah Uslu
Dr.
Emrullah Uslu is an assistant professor at Yeditepe Univeristy in
Istanbul and Visiting Assistant Professor at University of North
Florida. He received a Ph.D. from the University of Utah in Middle East
Studies/Political Science in 2009. He worked as a policy analyst for the
Turkish National Police’s counterterrorism headquarters for more than
ten years. Dr. Uslu has taught courses on Islam and Politics, Terrorism,
Middle East Politics, Middle East History and Nationalism. Between 2004
and 2008, he organized annual graduate student conferences titled “The
Middle East & Central Asia: Politics, Economics, and Society
Conference,” at the University of Utah. In June, 2009,
Dr. Uslu delivered a lecture based on his work on the PKK’s crude oil
pipeline strategy at a special event hosted by the Jamestown Foundation
in Washington, D.C.
Dr.
Uslu published a number of articles on Security, Terrorism, the Kurdish
Question, Militant Islam, Turkish Nationalism and Turkey’s relations
with Egypt. He is the author of Deep State’s Threat Map: Kurds and Islamists (Derin Devletin Tehdit Haritası: Dün Kürtler Bugün Cemaatler), published in 2010. The book examines Turkish military’s responses to the Kurdish and Islamist political actors.
Mr. Uslu works as a columnist, contributing regularly to the Turkish daily Taraf and Turkey’s English daily, Today’s Zaman. He is often quoted by the international press, including but not limited to al Jazeera, the Guardian, the Times of London and The Los Angeles Times.
Additionally he is a frequent commentator for Turkish television
channels and newspapers regarding Middle East affairs, the PKK and the
Kurdish question, terrorism, as well as security issues.
Chris Zambelis
Chris
Zambelis is a Senior Analyst specializing in Middle East affairs with
Helios Global, Inc., a risk management group based in the Washington,
D.C., area. His primary research interests include geopolitics,
domestic politics, security, economics and energy issues relevant to the
broader Middle East. His work supports a wide range of clients in the
public, private and non-profit sectors. A frequent traveler to the
Middle East, he has spent significant time in Syria and Lebanon in
recent years. In addition to his work for The Jamestown Foundation, Mr.
Zambelis is also a regular contributor to numerous other publications.
He holds a B.A. degree in Politics and History
from New York University and an M.S. in Foreign Service degree from
Georgetown University.
Jacob Zenn
Jacob
Zenn is an analyst for The Jamestown Foundation, specializing in
security issues in Africa, South America, Central Asia and Southeast
Asia, and is a frequent contributor to the Terrorism Monitor, Militant Leadership Monitor (MLM) and Eurasia Daily Monitor
publications. Mr. Zenn is the author of The Jamestown Foundation
Occasional Report entitled “Northern Nigeria’s Boko Haram: The Prize in
Al-Qaeda’s Africa Strategy,” which analyzes the evolution of al-Qaeda’s
Africa strategy and operations in Nigeria, the rise and trajectory of
Boko Haram in northern Nigeria, and the relationship between al-Qaeda in
the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
and Boko Haram. He carried out field research in Nigeria, Niger,
Cameroon and Chad in June 2012.
Mr.
Zenn earned a J.D. from Georgetown Law where he concentrated in Refugee
Law and Humanitarian Emergencies and a degree in International Affairs
from the Johns Hopkins SAIS Center for Chinese-American Studies in
Nanjing, China. During his graduate study, he received a fellowship from
the American Society of International Law and Chadbourne & Parke
LLP in Yemen and was selected for a State Department Critical Language
Scholarship in Indonesia. His experience includes consulting with risk
analysis firms and geospatial and socio-cultural research providers,
serving as an educator in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and
working as a legal adviser providing expertise on the international law
and best practices related to the freedom of association.
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