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Monday, November 29, 2010

Neighborly love running out

SINOGRAPH
Neighborly love running out
Despite all of the efforts China has made to cover up for North Korea, Pyongyang's shelling of a South Korean island shows that it does not trust Beijing. If the North is uncontrollable and there is no status quo to be preserved, then using the arithmetic of costs and benefits, it may be worth eliminating a troublesome neighbor. - Francesco Sisci (Nov 29, '10)

Teetering Asian dominoes test Obama



Teetering Asian dominoes test Obama

The ripples from the crisis between North and South Korea add to a tide of reverses that threatens to undermine Barack Obama's patient foreign policy. Signs that Israel could use the distant conflict to pressure acquiescence for a strike on Iran stand in line with events in Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen to suggest the specter of "falling dominoes" haunting the American president.
- Victor Kotsev (Nov 29, '10)

How 250,000 U.S. Embassy Cables Were Leaked By: David Leigh | The Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/28/how-us-embassy-cables-leaked
An innocuous-looking memory stick, no longer than a couple of fingernails, came into the hands of a Guardian reporter earlier this year. The device is so small it will hang easily on a keyring. But its contents will send shockwaves through the world's chancelleries and deliver what one official described as "an epic blow" to US diplomacy.
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GORDON DUFF: WIKILEAKS, A TOUCH OF ASSANGE AND THE STENCH OF AIPAC

Wikileaks Release Exposes U.S. Diplomacy from the Council on Foreign Relations



WikiLeaks released the first batch of about 250,000 U.S. diplomatic cables Sunday, exposing sensitive official information (FT) about U.S. affairs with the rest of the world and U.S. assessments of foreign leaders. The cables – released after a previous batch of 400,000 documents in October about the Iraq war and 75,000 in July on the Afghan war -- indicate that Iran has obtained nineteen BM-25 missiles from North Korea with a range sufficient to hit western Europe, and they document Arab calls for a military attack on Tehran. They also recount U.S. efforts since 2007 to remove weapons-grade uranium from a Pakistani research reactor that the United States fears would be used as a bomb. The documents also suggest U.S. diplomats were ordered to engage in low-level spying (WashPost) by obtaining foreign diplomats' personal information, such as frequent-flier and credit card numbers. The documents could embarrass the Obama administration and undermine its diplomacy. In cables drafted by U.S. diplomats, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is described as an "alpha-dog," Afghan President Hamid Karzai is "driven by paranoia," and German Chancellor Angela Merkel allegedly "avoids risk and is rarely creative." White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs expressed concern (Bloomberg) in a statement that, "these cables could compromise private discussions with foreign governments and opposition leaders." The Pentagon said yesterday it will take action to prevent future illegal releases of classified information, including removing the ability of classified computers to download information onto removable disks.
Analysis:
The Economist questions whether the WikiLeaks' revelations will lead to a sustained increase in circulation for the five newspapers given privileged access to the material: the New York Times in the United States, the Guardian in Britain, Le Monde in France, El Pais in Spain and Der Spiegel in Germany.
On the Daily Beast, Peter Beinart says the WikiLeaks documents "sabotage American foreign policy without adding much, if anything, to the public debate."
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Easing tension on the Korean Peninsular By Shen Dingli

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2010-11/29/content_21444052.htm
November 29, 2010
News of the artillery exchange between the two Koreas came as a shock. The world deplored the loss of life and is seriously concerned about further developments. It is important both to understand the reasons for the hostilities and to ensure they do not recur.
As far as we can tell, the ROK fired the first shots into disputed waters, disregarding earlier warnings from the DPRK, and the latter then "retaliated". This seems to have been the sequence of events.
For long time, the two Koreas have dreamed of unification. But they differ profoundly on the terms under which unification will be accomplished. The 1953 armistice ended open warfare, but half a century later neither a permanent peace, nor even a clear demarcation of territory, including territorial waters, has been agreed. This has sowed the seeds of discord, and armed conflict is prone to erupt at any time, either intentionally or unintentionally.
If both sides restrict themselves to insisting on their respective claims to these troubled waters the worst that can happen is a wave of antagonistic rhetoric – bad enough, but falling short of military confrontation. But if either side actively asserts its claim by force, it risks provoking serious military conflict.
This was clearly what happened this time, as on many previous occasions. Obviously the ROK side has the right to stage military exercises on its own territory. And if the area where the ROK's shells fell had been indisputably a part of Seoul's territory, it would have provoked no hostile response from the other side. But given that the ROK and DPRK have been in dispute over the waters for decades, and the DPRK had already warned of the consequences of ROK artillery fire in the area, it was rather unwise to proceed.
By firing into DPRK territory, the ROK armed forces on the Yeonpyeong Island tested, unnecessarily if not provocatively, the credibility of the DPRK's deterrence. Since the ROK was not in a position to defend against the shelling, it begs the question why it chose to play such a dangerous game. Firing shells into disputed waters is not something to be done lightly, and testing the DPRK's stomach for a fight is reckless.
Having said this, "retaliating" against islanders, rather than firing into ROK waters, was far more than was necessary. After all, the ROK barrage only endangered marine life on the DPRK side. But the DPRK seemed to deliberately strike against human lives, which was completely excessive, disproportionate, and outrageous.
Even allowing that the ROK ignored the DPRK's warnings and infringed Pyongyang's sovereignty, the ROK at most caused some damage to marine life. If the DPRK felt it had to teach the ROK a lesson, it would have made sense to retaliate in kind by destroying marine life in ROK waters.
Striking against people on Yeonpyeong Island was an overreaction. Although the ROK failed to heed the DPRK's warnings, it hurt no human beings in the North. But the DRPK's artillery barrage claimed the lives of several people. This is why the DPRK action has been so widely condemned.
Presently, it is imperative that all stakeholders exercise restraint so as to avoid escalation of the crisis. It is important, first, to determine the cause of the artillery exchange, and then to craft a system that will free the two Koreas of the threat of such incidents in the future.
Drawing lessons from the Cheonan incident, it is of the utmost importance to launch an authoritative international investigation, in which all stakeholders are engaged. The ideal platform for authorizing and organizing the investigation is the United Nations. Rather than was the case with the Cheonan, when China was either not invited or was unwilling to join the investigation, it would be desirable for Beijing and others to work together to establish the cause of the artillery exchange.
A multilateral investigation will lend credibility to international mediation of the dispute. Based on the discovery or confirmation of the cause of the crisis, it is necessary to convene a dialogue between the two Koreas to define their future rules of engagement at sea. The two sides should clarify the scope of their disputes over sovereign waters, and apply the notion of land-based demilitarized zones to the sea as well, i.e., the two sides should not enter the zone or carry out any hostile actions in the zone. Such an arrangement would minimize the risk of conflict and provide time and space for the building of institutional arrangements to forge long-lasting peace on the peninsula.
It is worth emphasizing that, even if either party violated the agreed code, the other party should exercise maximum restraint and never respond excessively. They should resort to the UN Security Council to settle the dispute before responding directly. In the case of the current exchange of fire, this would mean that even if the UNSC had done nothing, the DPRK ought to have responded by firing into the sovereign waters of the ROK, rather than bringing death to the inhabitants of the island.
Under extreme conditions, the two Koreas need to find mechanisms to communicate their concerns on urgent basis. They need to set up confidence building measures, to allow direct cross-border talks between military officers, and to allow direct hot-line communication between the two leaderships.
While the lessons of these recurring crises need to be drawn, it is also necessary to understand what drove the DPRK to respond excessively. There has been speculation that some high-handed performance was necessary to ensure the domestic legitimacy of the leadership succession process. The recent revelation of its uranium enrichment capacity seems to indicate a hardening of Pyongyang's line on nuclear development. Though the world community might wish this assessment is unnecessarily pessimistic, the North's handling of the incident is surely pushing the resumption of the Sixth Party Talks further into an uncertain future.
In the wake of the artillery exchange, it was announced that the aircraft carrier USS George Washington is to stage a joint naval drill with the ROK in the west sea off the Korean Peninsula. While this may rekindle Chinese antipathy to American gunboat diplomacy, Washington and Beijing need to handle this with caution. The U.S. needs to understand that the ROK made mistakes in this incident by shooting first into disputed waters. Though America has to stand by its ally, it should not back irresponsible provocations by any parties, including the ROK. Understanding this will lay the basis for working with other stakeholders in the region on an equitable basis.
The U.S. should also maximize cooperation with China, rather than narrowing the space for such cooperation. China is wary of external powers wielding military force in the region, and has especially warned America not to step into its exclusive economic zone militarily without prior consent. As the Yellow Sea is only some 400 nautical miles wide, the U.S. and ROK should demonstrate sensitivity so as to foster a collaborative settlement of the incident.
Northeast Asia and the world are increasingly apprehensive of a resumption of military incidents on the Korean Peninsula and the seas adjacent to it. Though matters currently seem under control, such incidents pose a threat to the stability of the region. Responsible stakeholders should work together to ease tension, and put in place mechanisms to minimize the chances of a rerun of such dangerous episodes.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn For more information please visit http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/node_7082361.htm

Memo to Tea Party Senators from Winslow Wheeler

Some of the newly elected Tea Party senators, including Rand Paul and Pat Toomey, have already said there is good reason to reduce the hyper-bloated Pentagon budget.  However, it is not clear if they all have the same appreciation for just how serious the decay has been in our forces, the data-free nature of DOD decision making, and the need for fundamental reform.  Just removing a little "waste, fraud, and abuse" - the preferred banner of many timid budget cutters who never seem to find much - will not even begin to address the problems. 
 
A former senior Center for Defense Information professional, Sanford Gottlieb, joined with me to address a memorandum to the new Tea Party senators on the matter.  Find this "memo" at Huffington Post at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/winslow-t-wheeler/memo-to-tea-party-senator_b_789139.html, and below:
 
 
Memorandum

To: Senators-elect Ron Johnson (Wisconsin), Mike Lee (Utah), Rand Paul (Kentucky), Marco Rubio (Florida), and Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania)

 From: Winslow Wheeler and Sanford Gottlieb, Center for Defense Information, Washington, D.C.

Subject: The Pentagon Budget


Welcome to Washington. This town is eager to learn how you will pursue the Tea Party message you championed in the campaign: to seriously cut spending. As you look for targets, we wonder if all of you have actively considered examining the budget of the biggest federal government agency, the Department of Defense.

Military spending today, at $700 billion annually, is higher than at any time since the end of World War II. Beyond the 1.5 million men and women in uniform, Defense employs 740,000 civilians and literally uncounted contractors. The sun never sets on Pentagon bases and installations around the world. From 2000 to this year's budget, Congress has given the Pentagon $7 trillion dollars-$1.3 trillion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, $5.7 trillion for routine, non- combat, operations (the base budget). That doesn't include the cost of nuclear weapons, which are in the Energy Department's domain and would add about another $200 billion.

What did our country get for that torrent of money? Well, we're not sure. Seems the Pentagon has trouble with its bookkeeping and literally cannot track how it spends taxpayer dollars.  Senator Chuck Grassley, Republican of Iowa, recently pointed to one key cause-"numerous breakdowns in the auditing process used by the Department of Defense Office of the Inspector General." The problem isn't new; it's been around enough decades to make us think the Pentagon excuses itself from this fundamental, even Constitutional, form of accountability. 

Following his in-depth review of the Pentagon Inspector General, Grassley sent his findings and recommendations to Defense Secretary Robert Gates. "Top managers in the audit office," the Iowa Republican reported, "repeatedly stated that doing contract audits are 'too difficult....We can't do it.'" If they can't do it, does that mean defense contractors are basically writing their own expense accounts for billion dollar programs?  Note also, the Pentagon is virtually alone in the federal government in its failure to account for its own spending.

Grassley praised Gates' efforts to eliminate wasteful spending but asserted that reliance on the Pentagon bureaucracy to eliminate waste is questionable. "Those are the very same powerful Pentagon 'fiefdoms' that created the problem in the first place," Grassley wrote, "and the very same ones that Eisenhower warned us about 50 years ago."

Dwight Eisenhower, were he with us today, would no doubt also be appalled to discover that, despite years of hefty Pentagon budgets, our forces are now smaller, older, and less ready to fight.

The Air Force, for example, received a funding boost of 43 percent in the 2001-2011 budget period. Yet, the number of active and reserve fighter and bomber squadrons declined by 51 percent. Fighter pilot in-air training today is only one-third to one-half of what it was in the 1970s, an era not known for high readiness. During the same period the Navy's budget expanded by 44 percent, while the size of its combat fleet declined by 10 percent. This is not a smaller, newer fleet. It's a smaller, older fleet. Is it more ready to fight? Almost certainly not. We keep hearing about severe maintenance problems throughout the fleet, and Navy combat training in the air has remained at historic lows. Only the Army grew. Using a 53 percent hike in appropriations, it expanded its brigade combat teams-by five percent.

"The spigot of defense spending opened by 9/11 is closing," Secretary Gates has proclaimed. Not exactly. Gates, unlike most of his predecessors, did cancel some weapons programs, such as the F-22 fighter, because they were over cost, under performing, late and irrelevant. He also announced a plan to "save" $102 billion by trimming the Pentagon bureaucracy. But that is to be done over five years, and the money is to be transferred to "force structure" rather than saved in the usual sense of the word. In fact, the Defense Secretary wants the military budget to grow for the next decade, by one percent a year plus anticipated adjustments for inflation. That would increase DOD's base budget by 33 percent. Add the cost of any wars underway a decade from now. So, even with a change-minded man in charge of the Pentagon, we're looking at even more massive military spending in the foreseeable future.

Gates is clearly aware of the full range of Pentagon problems that contribute to overruns and overstaffing. But he appears to have picked the relatively narrow issue of bureaucratic bloat as his top concern. Speaking at the Eisenhower Presidential Library in Kansas this past May, he complained that 40 generals, admirals and their civilian counterparts were still stationed in Europe more than two decades after the Cold War ended. Gates also criticized the extensive hiring of private contractors to do administrative jobs the military used to do. "We ended up with contractors supervising other contractors," he said, "with predictable results." The Secretary estimated at $23 billion the growth in this part of the DOD budget-not counting the cost of private contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan-but in fact it was conjecture; the real figure is unknown. He must have been more than a little wistful when he told his Kansas audience:

"Eisenhower was wary of seeing his beloved republic turn into a muscle-bound garrison state-militarily strong, but economically stagnant and strategically insolvent."

Muscle-bound aptly describes the practice of DOD, and Congress, of preserving extraordinarily expensive, underperforming weapons designed to fight the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact and always delivered years late.  The F-35, which unfortunately Secretary Gates continues to support, is a classic example.  Originally promised to cost $35 million per aircraft, it will now cost at least $155 million each; it is just now being produced-years late-and aircraft design experts look at its performance characteristics and grimace.  The Navy's LPD-17 and DDG-1000 ships and the Marine Corps' Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle are a few more of the many examples.

Practices like those have contributed to a level of military spending that almost equals that of all other countries combined. Counting just our potential enemies and taking the defense budgets of Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and Cuba combined, we spend three times that amount.

There's a disconnect between U.S. military spending and real-world threats. Today and in the future, al-Qaeda and its global affiliates top the list of threats to the United States and our allies. $1.3 trillion dollars and nine years of fighting after 9/11, the problem is undiminished; military force cannot be the sole means to rely on, and it is likely to be most effective with astutely employed special forces.

Yet, the United States continues to maintain, for example, up to 11 classic warfare aircraft carrier battlegroups, with their associated cruisers, destroyers, submarines, oilers, supply ships and more-all in the absence of an opposing conventional navy.  To the extent that naval experts worry about the Chinese, or even regional powers in the littorals, potential opponents are deploying ominous new missile and submarine systems that make our huge surface forces into little more than "targets," according to prevailing gallows humor.

Secretary Gates has indirectly explained why we do this.  After suggesting fewer than 11 carriers, he relented saying "I may want to change things, but I am not crazy. I am not going to cut a carrier." Subsequent events in Virginia were a case in point. When Gates announced plans in August to close the Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, which defense experts and even former commanders dubbed superfluous, the Virginia congressional delegation protested loudly. Protecting the in-state spending elicited a rare example of bipartisanship in Congress.  And, when the Navy announced that it would move one of the five carriers based in Norfolk to Florida, Representative Glenn Nye, a Democrat, proclaimed in a campaign ad: "I won't stand by while Washington tries to take away our carrier and Joint Forces Command." Nye later said in a TV spot that he had "stood up to Washington" on the Joint Command and "is winning the effort to save our carrier." The proprietary "our carrier" reflects more than local pride. It translates as: Save all of the civilian jobs in the shipyards and related businesses. In this case, "Washington" gets the political tongue lashing even without cutting a carrier - just by trying to base it elsewhere.

Every base, installation, and weapons system has its own constituency. As a result of the pressures to preserve jobs and incomes (and, some would argue, political campaign contributions), many defense decisions are made for parochial reasons. Defense decisions should be made for defense reasons. Members of Congress should act on the broader merits and, if necessary, help their defense-dependent communities adjust to change, whether due to DOD procurement decisions, base realignments, arms control treaties, or cuts in appropriations.

Where to start bringing this huge federal agency's spending under control? Your colleague, Republican Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, has a sensible proposal. He has recommended to each member of President Obama's Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (the "Deficit Commission"), on which he serves, that the Pentagon budget be frozen until it can pass comprehensive audits of all programs, agencies and contractors.  To reform and control defense spending, it clearly must first be understood - the very reason for the accountability clause in the Constitution.

After looking at this gigantic problem, you may come up with additional approaches. You have your work cut out for you. We wish you well.

Winslow Wheeler is director of the Center for Defense Information's Straus Military Reform Project.
Sanford Gottlieb was senior producer and narrator of CDI's weekly TV program, "America's Defense Monitor."
_____________________________
Winslow T. Wheeler
Director
Straus Military Reform Project
Center for Defense Information
301 791-2397

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Wikileaks and the Arab public sphere By Marc Lynch

I expect to delve into the substance of the Wikileaks cables over the next few days -- I've been flagging noteworthy ones on Twitter all afternoon, and will keep doing so as I go along, and I will blog at greater length about specific issues as they arise.   But I wanted to just throw some quick thoughts out there now after reading through most of the first batch.  My initial skepticism about the significance of this document leak, fueled by the lack of interesting revelations in the New York Times and Guardian reports, is changing as I see the first batch of cables posted on Wikileaks itself.     
I don't think that there's going to be much revision of the American foreign policy debate, because most policy analysts have already heard most of what's in the cables, albeit in sanitized form.  The cables still generally confirm the broad contours of what we already knew:   many Arab leaders are deeply suspicious of Iran and privately urged the U.S. to attack it, for instance, but are afraid to say so in public.  I haven't seen anything yet which makes me change any of my views on things which I study -- the cables show Arab leaders in all their Realpolitik and anti-Iranian scheming.  I never thought that Arab leaders didn't hate Iran, only that they wouldn't act on it because of domestic and regional political constraints and out of fear of being the target of retaliation, and that's what the cables show.   I'll admit that I'm finding a wealth of fascinating details filling in gaps and adding information at the margins.  Nobody who follows regional politics can not be intrigued to hear Hosni Mubarak calling Iranians "big fat liars" or hearing reports of the astoundingly poor policy analysis of certain UAE royals.    This will be a bonanza to academics studying international relations and U.S. foreign policy comparable to the capture of Iraqi documents in 2003 (I wonder what norms will evolve about citations to these documents, which the U.S. government considers illegally released?).    
But, as Issandr el-Amrani pointed out earlier today, the real impact may well be in the Arab world, where rulers go to great lengths to keep such things secret.   The Arab media thus far is clearly struggling to figure out how to report them, something I'll be following over the next week.   One of the points which I've made over and over again is that Arab leaders routinely say different things in private and in public, but that their public rhetoric is often a better guide to what they will actually do since that reflects their calculation of what they can get away with politically.  Arab leaders urged the U.S. to go after Saddam privately for years, but wouldn't back it publicly for fear of the public reaction.  It's the same thing with Iran over the last few years, or with their views of the Palestinian factions and Israel.    But now those private conversations are being made public, undeniably and with names attached.
So here's the million dollar question:  were their fears of expressing these views in public justified?  Let's assume that their efforts to keep the stories out of the mainstream Arab media will be only partially successful -- and watch al-Jazeera here, since it would traditionally relish this kind of story but may fear revelations about the Qatari royal family.   Extremely important questions follow.  Will Arab leaders pay any significant political price for these positions, as they clearly feared?   Or will it turn out that in this era of authoritarian retrenchment they really can get away with whatever diplomatic heresies they like even if it outrages public opinion?  Will the publication of their private views lead them to become less forthcoming in their behavior in order to prove their bona fides -- i.e. less supportive of containing or attacking Iran, or less willing to deal with Israel? Or will a limited public response to revelations about their private positions lead them to become bolder in acting on their true feelings?   Will this great transgression of the private/public divide in Arab politics create a moment of reckoning in which the Arab public finally asserts itself... or will it be one in which Arab leaders finally stop deferring to Arab public opinion and start acting out on their private beliefs?  
Now those are interesting questions. 

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/11/28/wikileaks_and_the_arab_public_sphere
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US considers military options against Iran



http://www.spacewar.com/reports/US_considers_military_options_against_Iran_999.html Washington (AFP) Nov 28, 2010 Suspicious of Iran's nuclear capacity, the United States is weighing military options in the face of Tehran's announcement it had a nuclear power plant up and running, the top US military officer said Sunday. "We've actually been thinking about military options for a significant period of time," Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff said in an interview with CNN.
Mullen said he doesn't believe that Iran's nuclear plant is for civilian use "for a second."
"In fact, the information and intelligence that I've seen speak very specifically to the contrary. Iran is still very much on a path to be able to develop nuclear weapons, including weaponizing them, putting them on a missile and being able to use them," he said.
Mullen said the United States was focused on dialogue and engagement about Iran's nuclear ambitions, but "in a realistic way."
"They've got a history of gamesmanship that certainly doesn't include closing on significant steps to indicate to the international community that they're not doing this," he said.
On Saturday, Iran said its first atomic power plant built by Russia in Bushehr had begun operations, ahead of a new round of talks with Western powers over the country's controversial nuclear drive.
"Without any propaganda and fuss we sealed the cover of the reactor and all the fuel rods are in the core of the reactor," atomic chief Ali Akbar Salehi was quoted as saying by Fars news agency, without specifying when.
But Salehi said the authorities in the Islamic republic "hope that electricity produced at the Bushehr plant will be connected to the national grid in a month or two."
Iran says it needs the plant, which had been under construction since the 1970s in the southern port city of Bushehr before it was completed by Russia, to meet growing demand for electricity.
But Western governments suspect Iran's nuclear program masks a drive for an atomic weapons capability, an ambition Tehran has steadfastly denied.

Key US senator resolute on Russia nuclear pact from Military Space News, Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense


http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Key_US_senator_resolute_on_Russia_nuclear_pact_999.htmlWashington (AFP) Nov 28, 2010
A key US senator reiterated Sunday his position that a new nuclear arms treaty with Russia could not be ratified this year, rejecting calls from President Barack Obama for quick action. "It is more a view of reality rather than policy," senator John Kyl told NBC's "Meet the Press," calling for weeks of debate on the details of the new START arms reduction treaty.
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Yemeni president covers up US strikes: WikiLeaks




http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Yemeni_president_covers_up_US_strikes_WikiLeaks_999.html Washington (AFP) Nov 28, 2010 Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh admits covering up US military strikes on Al-Qaeda in Yemen by claiming they are carried out by Yemeni forces, according to US documents leaked by WikiLeaks. "We'll continue saying the bombs are ours, not yours," Saleh said in January talks with General David Petraeus, then commander of US forces in the Middle East, according to a leaked US diplomatic cable published by the New York Times.
The cable was sent by the US ambassador to Yemen, the daily said.
The daily said the remarks prompted Yemen's deputy prime minister to "joke that he had just 'lied' by telling parliament" that Yemeni forces had staged the strikes against Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Al-Qaeda's Yemeni arm.
The Washington Post reported earlier this month that Washington had deployed drones to hunt down jihadists.
With more than 100,000 US troops fighting Al-Qaeda's allies in Afghanistan and public skepticism in Yemen over the US military's role there, US officials have stressed that Sanaa will lead the fight against Islamist militants.
On November 16, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said providing equipment and training to Yemeni security forces offered the best way to counter the threat posed by Al-Qaeda militants.

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Iran obtained missiles from North Korea : leaked US documents


http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Iran_obtained_missiles_from_North_Korea_leaked_US_documents_999.html





Washington (AFP) Nov 28, 2010 US intelligence believes Iran has obtained advanced missiles from North Korea capable of striking Europe, according to US documents leaked by WikiLeaks and cited by the New York Times on Sunday. The newspaper, in a diplomatic cable dated February 24, said "secret American intelligence assessments have concluded that Iran has obtained a cache of advanced missiles, based on a Russian design."
Iran obtained 19 of the North Korean missiles, an improved version of Russia's R-27, from North Korea, the cable said, and was "taking pains to master the technology in an attempt to build a new generation of missiles."
At the request of US President Barack Obama's administration, the New York Times said it had agreed not to publish the text of that cable.
"The North Korean version of the advanced missile, known as the BM-25, could carry a nuclear warhead," said the newspaper, adding it had a range of up to 2,000 miles (more than 3,000 kilometres).
"If fired from Iran, that range, in theory, would let its warheads reach targets as far away as Western Europe, including Berlin. If fired northwestward, the warheads could reach Moscow," it said, referring to other dispatches.
"The cables say that Iran not only obtained the BM-25, but also saw the advanced technology as a way to learn how to design and build a new class of more powerful engines," said the Times.
http://www.spacewar.com/reportshttp://www.spacewar.com/reports/Iran_obtained_missiles_from_North_Korea_leaked_US_documents_999.html/Iran_obtained_missiles_from_North_Korea_leaked_US_documents_999.html

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Saudi king urged US to attack Iran: leaked US documents




http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Saudi_king_urged_US_to_attack_Iran_leaked_US_documents_999.html Paris (AFP) Nov 28, 2010 King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia urged the United States to attack Iran to destroy its nuclear programme, according to US documents leaked by WikiLeaks and published Sunday by daily newspapers. According to a leaked US cable, published by the New York Times, King Abdullah bin Abd al-Aziz made the call during an April 2008 meeting with US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker and US General David Petraeus.
"He told you to 'cut off the head of the snake'," Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Washington, Adel al-Jubeir, told the US embassy in Riyadh two days after the high-level talks, according to the State Department memo.
"The King, Foreign Minister, Prince Muqrin, and Prince Nayif all agreed that the Kingdom needs to cooperate with the US on resisting and rolling back Iranian influence and subversion in Iraq," the memo said.
"The King was particularly adamant on this point, and it was echoed by the senior princes as well. Al-Jubeir recalled the King's frequent exhortations to the US to attack Iran and so put an end to its nuclear weapons program."
But the memo goes on to say other Saudi officials were more cautious about the need for military action, with Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and intelligence chief Prince Muqrin bin Abd al-Aziz pushing for sanctions.
"The Foreign Minister, on the other hand, called instead for much more severe US and international sanctions on Iran, including a travel ban and further restrictions on bank lending," the memo said.
"Prince Muqrin echoed these views, emphasizing that some sanctions could be implemented without UN approval. The Foreign Minister also stated that the use of military pressure against Iran should not be ruled out," the memo.
The leaked memo could prove embarrassing to Saudi Arabia which, while known to be nervous of Iran's alleged nuclear weapons programme, has not publicly called for Western military action against its powerful neighbour.

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Russia sells Su-35s to China



Beijing (UPI) Nov 23, 2010 Defying its tradition of keeping China at a distance of its advanced weapons, Russia has signaled its intent to sell its latest model of Su-35 jet fighter to China. "We are ready to work with the Chinese partners in this direction," said Alexander Mikheyev, the deputy director of the Russian government export agency Rosoboronexport. Mikheyev made the statement to Moscow's RIA-Novosti news agency.
His remarks came on the sidelines of China's ambitious Zhuhai Airshow 2010, staged at the Guangdong province and featuring a record number of companies exhibiting aircraft and aviation technology.
Powered by two 117S engines with thrust vectoring, the Su-35 Flanker E mixes high maneuverability with the capability of engaging several air targets at once, using both guided and unguided missiles and weapons systems.
The multirole fighter is expected to roll off assembly lines by the end of the year, with the first batch set for China between 2010 and 2015. Local media have indicated that the order includes 48 aircraft.
Mikheyev told RIA-Novosti that Russia and China were engaged in the initial stages of talks and would discuss the "features of the export variant of the Su-35 and how to integrate it with previously supplied Su-30 fighters and the locally assembled Su-27."
Variants of the model have been offered to India, Malaysia, Algeria, Brazil and Venezuela since 2008. No deals though, have been signed.
Defense News quotes a Rosoboronexport official saying that the contract would "mark a departure from recent stagnation in Russian arms sales to China." Throughout this period China eyed advanced Russian weapons, but bar a few samples, Moscow refused to deliver fearing that China would copy the technologies.
China's orders for jets are expected to soar over the next decade. The biggest demands recorded at the air show included small passenger aircraft, with orders for an estimated 505 planes anticipated in the next 20 years.
Reaping much of the gain is Brazil's Embraer, the world's largest maker of regional aircraft.
"China's booming economy fosters the development of its regional aviation market, which generates great opportunities for players in the aviation industry, said Guan Dongyuan, president of Embraer China.
Still, at the air show, military drones drew the lion's share of the attention. As many as 25 different types were featured in the show, with one of them inducing rain as a shield.
China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition is the only international aerospace trade show in China that is endorsed by the Chinese central government. The biannual arms exhibition has been held in Zhuhai since 1996.

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US-S.Korea naval exercises begin after Pyongyang warning


http://www.spacewar.com/reports/US-SKorea_naval_exercises_begin_after_Pyongyang_warning_999.html

The United States and South Korea Sunday mounted a major show of naval strength to deter North Korea following its deadly shelling attack, despite Pyongyang's warning of unpredictable consequences. The four-day exercise involving around a dozen warships including a US aircraft carrier began at 8:00 am (2300 GMT Saturday), Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.
It started five days after the North stunned the world by launching a barrage of shells and rockets at a South Korean border island, killing two marines and two civilians and setting homes and forests ablaze.
Washington insists that the drill -- which has been criticised by Beijing -- is defensive in nature and was planned long before last week's attack, but says it is intended to send a message of deterrence to the North.
The drill involving at least 11 major warships and thousands of service personnel was taking place off South Korea's southwest coast, far from the flashpoint inter-Korean border, according to coordinates given by Seoul officials.
"If the US brings its carrier to the West Sea of Korea (Yellow Sea) at last, no one can predict the ensuing consequences," the North's official news agency said Saturday, in the latest of a series of warnings following Tuesday's bombardment.
The drill is one of a series announced in May, after a Seoul-led multinational investigation found overwhelming evidence that a North Korean torpedo sank a South Korean warship earlier in the year.
That incident, which cost 46 lives, sparked anger in the South. But Tuesday's bombardment -- the first time the South's civilian areas have been shelled since the 1950-53 war -- was seen as more shocking.
The North claims it acted in retaliation to a South Korean firing drill in what it regards as its own waters around the contested border.
On Saturday it said the two civilian deaths were "if true... very regrettable".
But it also charged that civilians on Yeonpyeong island -- which is home to a marine base -- had been used as "human shields" by being placed near artillery positions.
Pyongyang has warned that the new war games mean the peninsula "is inching closer to the brink of war". It regularly uses such rhetoric and it was unclear whether it would try to disrupt the drill in any way.
South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak warned Saturday "there is a possibility that North Korea might commit wayward acts during the exercise," according to his spokesman.
Lee has come under pressure to take a tougher line against the North after the military's counter-fire last week was seen as feeble. His defence minister quit last Thursday to take responsibility.
"The intensity of the (naval) exercise will be greater than had been planned," Yonhap news agency quoted a Seoul military source as saying.
"Participating forces will carry out firing and bombing drills."
The 97,000-ton carrier George Washington can carry about 75 aircraft on its 1.8 hectare (4.5 acre) flight deck and has a crew of 5,500.
Also taking part on the US side was an embarked carrier air wing and vessels the USS Cowpens, Lassen, Stethem and Fitzgerald, according to information provided earlier.
Six South Korean warships, including a 7,600-ton Aegis-class destroyer, two 4,500-ton destroyers and frigates, as well as anti-submarine aircraft were joining the drill, a JSC spokesman said.
The drill will also involve a high-flying US J-STARS (joint surveillance and target attack system) surveillance aircraft to monitor the North's military moves, Yonhap reported.
"J-STARS has been deployed to the drill today... the aircraft will monitor (potential) ground targets of the North Korean military," it quoted a senior government official as saying. The JCS declined to confirm the report.
The exercise has raised tensions between Washington and Beijing, which regards the Yellow Sea as its backyard and has refrained from condemning its ally Pyongyang over Tuesday's attack.
Washington has stressed that the manoeuvres are not aimed against China, which hosts stalled six-party talks seeking an end to Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programme.
China's state councillor Dai Bingguo travelled to Seoul on Saturday and held talks with Foreign Minister Kim Sung-Hwan.
He will meet President Lee later Sunday, a presidential spokeswoman said without giving details.
Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi held phone talks on Saturday with his Japanese and Russian counterparts.http://www.spacewar.com/reports/US-SKorea_naval_exercises_begin_after_Pyongyang_warning_999.html

Okay, Fine, The Economy Is Getting Better -- But Not Much John Mauldin, Thoughts From The Frontline

 Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/john-mauldin-economy-2010-11?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29&utm_content=Google+Reader#ixzz16cGfj1Bl

Iran: Bushehr Nuclear Reactor Fully Loaded -- Voice of America


Iran: Bushehr Nuclear Reactor Fully Loaded -- Voice of America
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Iran-Bushehr-Nuclear-Reactor-Fully-Loaded-110905769.html
Iran's nuclear chief says the country's first nuclear reactor is fully loaded and could be operational within months.

Ali Akbar Salehi told state-run television Saturday workers had finished loading fuel rods into the core of the Bushehr nuclear plant, and that it could start generating electricity by February.

Salehi said officials are just waiting for the water in the reactor to heat to the right temperature before moving ahead.

Read more ....

More News On Iran's Nuclear Program

Iran Says Its First Nuclear Power Reactor Will Start Operating by January -- Bloomberg
Iranian nuclear plant nears national electricity production -- CNN
Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant to join national power grid in two months -- Xinhuanet
Iran says first nuclear plant begins operating -- AFP
Reactor started at Bushehr nuclear power plant -- ITAR-TASS
Iranian Nuclear Plant is Powering Up -- Arutz Sheva
Iran Nuclear Power Plant Completes Fueling -- CRIEnglish

North Korea "Readies Missiles" As China Seeks Talks -- Yahoo News/Reuters


YEONPYEONG, South Korea (Reuters) – North Korea has placed surface-to-surface missiles on launch pads in the Yellow Sea, Yonhap news agency said, as the United States and South Korea began military drills and China called for emergency talks.

China made clear that the talks would not amount to a resumption of six-party disarmament discussions which North Korea walked out of two years ago and declared dead. South Korea said it would carefully consider China's suggestion.

Read more ....

More News On The Crisis On The Korean Peninsula

South Korea rejects China call for talks as naval drills begin.
-- Bloomberg/Businessweek
Seoul Rejects China's Call for Emergency Talks to Defuse Korean Tension -- Voice of America
South Korea Slams China's Feeble Attempt To Cool The Crisis -- Business Insider
South Korea's Lee asks China to take "more fair" stance on North -- Reuters

China proposes emergency consultations on Korean Peninsula tensions -- Xinhuanet
China proposes emergency meeting on Korea tensions -- Yahoo News/AP
US-S.Korea naval exercises begin, China calls for talks -- Yahoo News/AFP
China Seeks Return to Six Party Korea Talks -- New York Times
China Moves to Cool Korean Tensions -- Wall Street Journal
U.S., South Korea begin military exercises, as China calls for emergency talks on North Korea -- Washington Post
China proposes meeting of 'six-party talks' heads amid Korean tensions -- CNN
China calls for North Korea talks -- The Guardian
China calls for emergency talks on Korea -- Financial Times
China Warns U.S. as Korea Tensions Rise -- Wall Street Journal

South Korea-US military exercises stoke tensions -- BBC
U.S., S. Korea Launch War Games -- CBS News/AP
US, South Korea Begin Military Exercises -- Voice of America
South Korea tells reporters to leave Yeonpyeong -- Reuters
North Korea threatens a 'sea of fire' as the South begins posturing war games with US -- The Daily Mail
N. Korea deploys SA-2 surface-to-air missiles near Yellow Sea border -- Yonhap News

North Korea's undercover journalists reveal misery of life in dictatorship -- The Telegraph
Japan spots Chinese vessels near disputed islands: report -- Yahoo News/AP
Seoul endures life under the gun -- CNN
South Korea: despatch from the frontline of World War Three -- The Telegraph
What the Conflict on the Korean Peninsula Means to the World Economy -- Jeffrey Sica
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