[Salon] Abu Dhabi bets on a new Syria - ArabDigest.org. Guest Post

Abu Dhabi bets on a new Syria Summary: the UAE is moving briskly to entrench its presence in civil-war battered Syria but progress on that front can only move forward if its Abraham Accords partner Israel is pressured to end efforts to destabilise the regime of President Ahmed al-Sharaa. We thank a regional contributor for today’s newsletter. This past spring, as Iranian ballistic missiles and drones rained down on the United Arab Emirates, it was Israel’s Iron Dome batteries that helped shoot down the majority of them. Only weeks later, a large Emirati business delegation was in Damascus signing investment agreements worth potentially US$18 billion. The two facts are not unrelated. The first Syrian-Emirati Investment Forum was held in Damascus on 12 May; speaking at the forum UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi announced that non-oil trade between the two countries had reached a record US$1.4 billion in 2025, more than doubling year-on-year. Mohamed Alabbar, the founder of Emaar Properties, a real estate development company, detailed plans to assess projects in tourism and infrastructure along the Syrian coast worth between US$5–7 billion and up to US$11 billion in Damascus and its surroundings. This highlights Abu Dhabi’s infrastructure-led engagement to move to develop a strategic foothold in the country. In Afghanistan, Egypt and elsewhere, the UAE has turned investments in infrastructure and logistics into regional influence. Earlier, in July 2025, DP World, part of a larger Emirati investment company, had committed US$800 million to expand Syria’s Tartus port, one of the first major investment agreements signed by Syria's new president Ahmed al-Sharaa, who had led Sunni Islamist militias in overthrowing the regime of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. The timing of the deal came shortly after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to waive sanctions. This decision also led to Russia losing its earlier contract, which had been granted by Assad in 2019 to modernise and manage the Tartus port. Alongside the economic announcements in May of this year, Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak, the mother of UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, said she would sponsor the renovation of the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus and the historic districts surrounding it. For a state with a staunchly anti-Islamist regional posture, the UAE’s message to restore the mosque in Damascus is a signal that Abu Dhabi is being pragmatic in competing for lasting influence in Syria among other regional powers including Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel. The UAE announcement of restoration of the Umayyad Mosque came during a visit by Noura bint Mohammed Al Kaabi, Minister of State, to Damascus. The UAE's posture toward Syria has been circuitous to say the least. Early in the Syrian conflict, Abu Dhabi backed the opposition, before gradually re-engaging with Assad, eventually becoming the principal Arab advocate for Assad’s return to the Arab League. Following Ahmed al-Sharaa’s lightning offensive to take control of the country, the UAE was initially wary of the new leadership. However, after the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran, and Tehran’s retaliation on the Arab Gulf states - with the UAE being hit harder than the others and even harder than Israel - the Emirati officials now increasingly view Syria as a strategic Arab ally, especially as Damascus tries to simultaneously deepen ties with the Arab Gulf and dismantle Iran’s military and economic influence. A series of high-level Syrian-Emirati meetings, including between the two heads of states in April, reflects the improving diplomatic atmosphere. More structurally, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created an acute vulnerability in the Arab Gulf’s energy logistics. Syria's coastline offers an alternative energy route. Iraq has already begun routing exports to European markets through Syria and the UAE wants to be involved in Syria’s role as a pipeline for oil, gas and other commodities. A separate yet related layer to Emirati motivations is Israel’s military support in the wake of Iran’s attacks in the region. In an unprecedented move, Israel deployed one of its advanced Iron Dome batteries as well as troops to help destroy rockets and drones. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even announced that he secretly traveled to the UAE. Emirati gratitude will surely have geopolitical consequences. The UAE-Israel relationship, which was already the deepest of any Abraham Accords partnership, has emerged from the ongoing war considerably strengthened at precisely the moment when American engagement in the region is retrenching. Since the start of this year, the US has mediated talks between Israel and Syria to try to reduce tensions. The UAE, with its unique position with Israel and growing influence in Syria will be well placed to help facilitate dialogue. However, the UAE’s economic stakes hinges on Israel actually curbing its efforts to destabilise Syria a task which has proven to be difficult to say the least. Against this backdrop, regional competitors including Türkiye, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will also attempt to compete with what the UAE can give to Damascus right now. Ankara, though it has deep political and military influence in Syria, is economically overstretched due to the precipitous rise in Brent crude. It is not in a position currently to bankroll large-scale reconstruction in Syria. Much of Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s support to Syria has involved debt relief and Riyadh’s financial pledges have been slow to materialise. But Abu Dhabi, with financial liquidity and close ties to Israel, can move with agility to deepen its political leverage with Damascus through direct investment and its port management expertise. Still the Syrian government’s authority remains fragile with reconstruction not yet underway. Israel with troops on the ground south of Damascus and close links to elements of the Syrian Druze remain a threat to the country’s stability. Given the urgent necessity for improved and sustained security in Syria Abu Dhabi must follow-through on the financial pledges made at the May investment forum and press Israel— directly and through the United States—to halt efforts that undermine the al-Sharaa government. If successful, the UAE’s strategic gamble could provide a lifeline for a country seeking to reshape its own future while entrenching Emirati influence in Syria and seeing off regional rivals.