WPR Articles Dec. 1, 2014 - Dec. 5, 2014 Oil Shocks Hit Nigeria—and Threaten Jonathan’s Re-election By: Alex Thurston | Briefing With oil prices falling, Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is feeling the pinch. As the government recalibrates, larger questions have erupted, including whether plummeting prices will affect the financing for President Goodluck Jonathan’s upcoming re-election bid or dampen his appeal. Oman Must Manage Risks to Ensure Post-Qaboos Stability By: Shehzad H. Qazi | Briefing Sultan Qaboos’ ailing health has raised important questions about the risks to Oman’s decades-old stability. Modernization and economic prosperity have been a key source of strength for Qaboos, but four major vulnerabilities exist that will challenge the resiliency of a post-Qaboos Oman. Jerusalem Unrest Tests Israel-Jordan Ties, Unlikely to Threaten Gas Deal By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines Last month, with tensions flaring in Jerusalem over access to the Temple Mount, or Haram al-Sharif, Jordan recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv—the first time it had done so since it signed a peace treaty with Israel 20 years ago. The unrest has tested Israel-Jordan ties, and that could be costly. Namibia’s SWAPO Wins Landslide Despite Popular Dissatisfaction By: The Editors | Trend Lines Namibia’s ruling South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) party won last month’s presidential election with over 86 percent of the vote. In an email interview, Elke Zuern, professor of politics at Sarah Lawrence College, discussed Namibia’s domestic politics. In Age of Disorder, U.S. Must Put Pragmatism Above Grand Strategy By: Judah Grunstein | Briefing When historians look back at 2014, they will likely be struck by how many contradictory trends co-exist in today’s world. Such a world, in which everything and its opposite are simultaneously true, makes it difficult to draw conclusions, let alone formulate policy and engage in strategic planning.     More For the West, Freezing 2014’s Conflicts Will Top Agenda in 2015 By: Richard Gowan | Column It is now conventional wisdom that the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, coupled with China’s increasing assertiveness in the Pacific, signal the looming implosion of the American-led international order. Like most conventional wisdoms, however, this may prove to be incorrect. Russia-Abkhazia Pact a Dangerous Omen for Georgia, Wider Region By: David Klion | Trend Lines Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a pact establishing closer ties between Russia and the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia. This move will increase Russia’s control over the Black Sea and indicates Putin’s willingness to force confrontations in Moldova and Ukraine as well. After Ukraine, Black Sea Becomes Contested Zone for Russia, NATO By: Richard Weitz | Column The Ukraine crisis has radically altered the European security equation, with the Black Sea region becoming a contested zone between Russia and NATO. Tensions are likely to increase before they dampen down. Yet the region’s governing conventions have remained virtually unchanged since the Cold War. Domestic Concerns Drive Indonesia’s Naval Expansion By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last month, Indonesia announced that it will create a coast guard in an effort to reduce smuggling and piracy. In an email interview, Brian Harding, director for East and Southeast Asia at the Center for American Progress, discussed Indonesia’s naval capabilities. History’s Postscript: The Populist Threat to Liberal Democracy By: Jan-Werner Müller | Feature Contrary to what has often been alleged, Francis Fukuyama’s argument in “The End of History” that only liberal democracy can fulfill basic human aspirations for freedom and dignity has not been so obviously disproven. But democracy does have a serious rival today: populism. PLA Inc.: Xi’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Puts Heat on China’s Military By: Andrew Wedeman | Briefing Recent high-profile charges against a retired general shed new light on corruption within China’s military. But as Chinese President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign turns to the military command, the questions raised go beyond graft to the heart of the PLA’s defense mission. Strategic Ambiguity Fail: When ‘All Options’ Are Not on the Table By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column U.S. government representatives should cease and desist from any further use of the phrase, “all options are on the table.” Strategic ambiguity can be useful. But as the examples of Iran’s nuclear program and Russia’s intervention in Ukraine show, empty threats can be counterproductive. Israel’s ‘Seinfeld Elections’: Netanyahu Gambles for Political Gain By: Frida Ghitis | Column Nobody is completely sure why Israel has to have elections now, with two years left in the Knesset’s current term. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have manufactured a crisis to trigger a political realignment that he hopes will leave him in a stronger position against potential challengers. Israel’s Urban Policies an Unseen Driver of Jerusalem Tensions By: Hanna Baumann | Briefing The spikes in violence in Jerusalem last month are extreme instances of the type of unrest that has been mounting since the summer. But at stake are more than familiar grievances in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Israel’s urban planning decisions are also fueling Palestinian anger. Assad Conundrum: Why Syria’s Dictator May Be ‘Too Big to Fail’ By: Steven Metz | Column The Islamic State cannot be defeated while Syrian President Bashar al-Assad remains in power, but removing him would create new dangers and costs. Thus, no matter how many airstrikes the U.S. launches or how many more American trainers show up in Iraq, success will remain elusive.