Middle East Roundtable
Edition 10 Volume 6 - March 06, 2008
Assassinations, part I
• Assassination Middle East-style - Abdel Monem Said Aly
An assassination is a low-cost, high-value political move.
• Unpredictable consequences - Waleed Sadi
The state/non-state distinction is legally dubious.
• Assassinating terrorists: the bin Laden case - Bruce Riedel
The objective should be to stop a murderer before he strikes; not revenge, but preemption.
• Pakistan's bloody past - Irfan Husain
Given the weakness of political institutions, individuals have come to play dominant roles. Their removal from the scene has thus caused dramatic changes.
Assassination Middle East-style
Abdel Monem Said Aly
Assassination as a tool of policy is as old as time. The Middle East region in both the ancient and modern era is no exception. Palace politics made the assassination of kings and princes grist for the storyteller's art. The removal of central personalities from the stage to achieve political or strategic objectives testifies to the role of individuals in the making and unmaking of history.
Abdel Rahmam Bin Malgam was the assassin who killed Imam Ali, the nephew of the Prophet Muhammad and the Hashemite caliph, in a mosque in Kufa, Iraq in order to start a new chapter in Islamic, Arab, and Middle East history. The assassination was part of a conspiracy to save Islam from fitna or strife. The plan was to assassinate not only Ali but also his rival Muawia, the Omayad caliph, in Damascus, as well as his senior aid Amr Bin Al Ass the wali of Egypt. The idea was noble: if the three protagonists of the fitna, driven by personal ambition, are removed from the stage, Islam and Muslims will be saved the horrors of internal war.
Wars, however, continued. The attempts on Muawia and Bin Ass failed, and success in the case of Ali was the opening of division and strife in the Islamic world between Sunnis and Shi'ites--a reality that to some extent controls Middle East politics to this day.
Assassination in this context is considered a political tool to change an unfavorable strategic situation, usually at a much lower cost than that of military operations. An assassination is a low-cost, high-value political move. Its drawback is that it exaggerates the role of the individual and often ignores the high magnitude of unintended consequences. Khalid Al Islambouli, the assassin of President Anwar Sadat of Egypt in 1981, thought that removing the "pharaoh" would undo Egypt's peace with Israel and restore the glory of Islam. A quarter of a century later, Egypt is still at peace with Israel and the glory of Islam still an unattainable goal. The Israeli assassination of the "engineer" Yahia Ayash in 1996 was intended to end Palestinian resistance to peace with Israel. Instead it opened the gate for more resistance, the end of the peace process and the birth of more Yahia Ayashes.
Assassinations sometimes can complicate an already complicated strategic situation. The assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin did not stop the peace process between the Palestinians and Israelis in the 1990s known as the Oslo process; yet it was a clear signal to Israeli politicians of the limits of where they can go in peace-making. In a way, the assassination of Lebanese ex-Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri complicated Lebanon's political situation and changed its strategic environment in relation to Syria and Israel. In both Israel and Lebanon, that assassination operation has had long-term strategic implications. The death of Hariri opened the way for Syria's evacuation of Lebanon, but it also started a process of Lebanese struggle that gave Hizballah the space to go to war with Israel in the summer of 2006.
Assassinations are not carried out only for strategic purposes, nor do they always have strategic implications. Sometimes they serve tactical political goals. Most of the post-Hariri assassinations in Lebanon served only to assert Syrian and Iranian influence. They were designed to spread fear among Lebanese political elites and ready them for the remolding of Lebanese politics away from the post-Cedar Revolution era. Similar tactical assassinations were carried out in Iraq by diverse terrorist and resistance groups just to highlight the American failure there or prevent political and economic development. In the long history of the Arab-Israel conflict, assassinations have been used to send signals and liquidate warmongers and peace-seekers alike. Both the Israelis and the Palestinians have acquired great skill in these operations.
The assassination of Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus was a mix of the strategic and the tactical. Certainly it reflected the Arab-Israel conflict's extensive legacy of going after the myth to erase symbols (Mughniyeh himself), frustrating future operations (possible war with Hizballah) and simple revenge (a recurring strong motive). Deterrence is the hoped-for end product, but the Middle East history of bloodshed proves that deterrence value is very low for all parties in the region.
Syria was also a target. Syria and Iran have sought to cloud the post-Annapolis environment in the region by actions in Lebanon that spoil the Arab League initiative and even in Egypt with Hamas' breach of the Egyptian-Gazan border. An affront to Syria's power in its capital might create the necessary pressure on Damascus to refrain and restrain.
All, however, are in vain. Assassinations might delay or confuse, but seldom have they changed the order of events for the long term.- Published 6/3/2008 © bitterlemons-international.org
Abdel Monem Said Aly is director of Al Ahram Center for Political & Strategic Studies in Cairo.
Assassinations have a long and crooked history that suggests, as do behavioral scientists, that the practice has its roots in biological, cultural and political evolutions past and present. The phenomenon, it is suggested, relates to human nature, even if its dark side. Man, it is postulated, has a propensity to kill his enemies. This "dark side" is referred to by scientists as the "lethal aggression" inherent in human nature.
The word "assassination" is generally traced to the Arabic noun "Hashashin". The Hashashin were a group of freelancers that in the 11th century systematically engaged in the assassination of Crusaders and also enjoyed a spot of hashish, hence the name. But the practice dates far further back, and ancient Chinese and Egyptian civilizations both witnessed political assassinations, perhaps most famously that of Pharaoh Tutankhamen, who was killed some 3,000 years ago. The Roman Empire too was rife with assassinations, especially after 234AD.
Not surprisingly, in our time it is our own empire, the United States that is at the heart of many modern assassination attempts. In the 1960s, the US was actively engaged in the assassination of foreign leaders including numerous botched attempts on the life of Cuban leader Fidel Castro. Cuban authorities allege there were no less than 612 attempts on the life of Castro by US agents. Inside the US, President John F. Kennedy, his brother Robert and civil rights leader Martin Luther King were all assassinated in the 1960s. Gerald Ford survived two attempts on his life. In 1981, Ronald Reagan was gravely wounded by a would-be assassin.
Indeed, since World War II there have been 78 successful assassinations of government leaders and heads of state. Many of those came in this region and in Jordan alone include King Abdullah I in 1951 and prime ministers Hazza Majali in 1960 and Wasfi Tal in 1971. Elsewhere there were the assassinations of Anwar Sadat of Egypt, Yitzhak Rabin of Israel and Rafiq Hariri of Lebanon.
In the 1970s, the US officially proscribed assassination as government policy in three executive orders by two presidents, first Ford and then Jimmy Carter. But these anti-assassination principles have lately been undermined in Washington by directives associated with the "war on terror". Now, a clear distinction has been made between state and non-state actors and the "targeted killing" of what the US has deemed "terrorist leaders" has been legitimized.
This has suited Israel, which has long made it policy to target Palestinian leaders (who by definition are all non-state actors). PLO leaders were targeted in Lebanon and Tunis long before Oslo, and since then Hamas leaders have been targeted in Jordan (Khaled Mishaal) and at home (Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Abdel Aziz Rantisi and many more). The latest Israeli assassination act was against Hizballah leader Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus in February.
And while the state/non-state distinction is legally dubious, it has offered the US and Israel "legal cover" to perpetuate these assassination policies. But assassinations have had unpredictable consequences that should act as cautions.
The most glaring example was the assassination in Sarajevo of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, in 1914. While the background context was complicated, there is little doubt that the assassination triggered World War I. Closer to home, Israel's targeting of Hamas leaders has not made the Islamist movement weaker. On the contrary, Hamas handily won Palestinian elections in 2006 in spite of the depletion of its leadership. And while the dust has yet to settle on the assassination of Mughniyeh, it is an inescapable conclusion that it will provoke a tough response from Hizballah, sooner or later.
Israel will continue its policy of assassinations and has, since the "war on terror", based that policy on the dubious premises that such killings are both legal and effective. For Israel, assassinations constitute a shortcut method to a goal. But while assassinations do produce results, they are not always (if ever) what the assassins had in mind or planned for. Certainly, Israel's policy of "targeted killings" has only ever served to worsen Israel's security by enflaming opinion on the Palestinian side and undermining moderates.- Published 6/3/2008 © bitterlemons-international.org
Waleed Sadi is a former Jordanian ambassador to Turkey and the UN and other international organizations in Geneva. He is currently a columnist for the Jordan Times and Al Rai newspapers.
Assassinating terrorists: the bin Laden case
Ten years ago, Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terror gang declared war on America. It struck the first blow in the war in East Africa. The US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya were attacked simultaneously by suicide bombers, and hundreds of Americans and Africans were casualties.
Within days, the CIA identified bin Laden as the mastermind and acquired a priceless piece of information: he was scheduled to visit a terror training camp in Afghanistan in less than 72 hours. President Clinton ordered a missile strike to eliminate the enemy.
In the White House, a small interagency core team was sequestered to plan and coordinate all elements of the strike and the diplomacy and public explanation of the operation. Since the missiles would overfly Pakistan only a few months after the Pakistanis and Indians had tested nuclear weapons, for example, it was essential to ensure we did not unintentionally provoke another Indian-Pakistani war. Pakistan was informed of the strikes literally at the last minute to ensure that did not occur.
Unfortunately, bin Laden was not on target when the strike hit. The best guess by experts later is that we may have missed him by less than an hour, but we will never know for sure.
When Hizballah terror mastermind Imad Mughniyeh was assassinated this February, my thoughts went back to that night in the White House before the attack. We worked all through the night and next morning on the operation to decapitate al-Qaeda. We had some serious tactical arguments within the team over important details of our work but no one questioned the wisdom of the president's decision to act. All knew the plan was a long shot but all agreed it was worth a try.
What if it had worked? Probably the terrible events of September 11, 2001 would never have happened. We know now that bin Laden was personally managing all the elements of the plot to strike America on 9/11 and the accompanying plot to kill Ahmad Shah Massoud, al-Qaeda's number one enemy in Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden picked the terrorists personally for each attack, chose Muhammad Atta to be the "emir" of the team in America, trained the Belgians used to kill Massoud, selected the targets for the aircraft to strike and micro-managed the timing. Bin Laden was critical to the plots: without his leadership, al-Qaeda almost certainly would not have made 9/11 the second most violent and bloody day in American history.
Would al-Qaeda have survived bin Laden's death and struck again? Retaliated somewhere? Yes, surely so, but it would have been a different organization without the charismatic Saudi leader. His deputy, Ayman Zawahiri, is a tough and murderous terrorist but his track record as an independent leader is one of failure. In the 1990s, his Islamic Jihad group was defeated in Egypt and on the run abroad. He has never enjoyed the appeal of bin Laden. Al-Qaeda would have been a deadly menace but not the monster bin Laden made it.
So killing senior terrorist leaders in some cases can profoundly change the course of events. Leadership matters in terrorist organizations like everywhere else. Democratic leaders should always weigh the pluses and minuses, the costs and risks, of any operation to kill the enemy on a case-by-case basis with great care. The objective should be to stop a murderer before he strikes; not revenge, but preemption. The attacks on bin Laden in 1998 and Mugniyeh in 2008 fit that requirement in my view.
The failure to bring justice to bin Laden after ten years of war has created a dangerous mystique in the Islamic world about this man. He is seen as immune to American retribution and a mythic figure. Claims that he is "in a cave" or "on the run" ring hollow, especially when American intelligence officials say correctly that his gang is still planning deadly operations on a global scale.
Targeting and eliminating a senior terrorist like Mughniyeh or bin Laden requires an extremely focused and intense effort that may take years to do the job. Israel has again and again demonstrated the capability to do so, from Black September to Hizballah. Not every operation has been a success. There is always the risk of failure and costly blowback. The Khaled Meshaal caper in Amman in 1997, when a senior Hamas figure was almost killed but the operatives were caught and King Hussein was outraged by the attack in his capital, is a reminder of the need for great judgment in the execution of such operations. Some times, like then, they should not be done.
The challenge is not just to collect the highest quality intelligence to ensure the best chance of success. It is to select leaders, both in the political leadership and the intelligence apparatus, who have the good judgment and experience to manage such decisions wisely.
The US intelligence community has demonstrated some impressive successes in
recent years, including the capture of Khaled Shaykh Muhammad (bin Laden's
maestro for 9/11) and the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (bin Laden's deputy in
Iraq). The next president will need to select an intelligence chief who can build on these successes and do even better. There is no assignment in the US national security leadership team that requires more expertise and judgment than that of the man or woman who will lead our campaign to fight bin Laden and bring him to justice. Getting it right when you target a kingpin like Mughniyeh can mean the difference between catastrophe and success.- Published 6/3/2008 © bitterlemons-international.org
Bruce Riedel, a thirty year CIA veteran, is a senior fellow at the Saban Center in the Brookings Institution and a professor at Georgetown University.
Pakistan's bloody past
When Benazir Bhutto was assassinated on December 27 last year, a wave of horror and revulsion swept the world. Even her many detractors were angered and appalled. But her murder was only one of many acts of political violence that have scarred Pakistan's history and altered the course of its development.
The first major politician to be assassinated was Liaquat Ali Khan, Pakistan's highly respected first prime minister and the most senior of Muhammad Ali Jinnah's lieutenants. Ironically, he was cut down by an assassin's bullet in 1951 just yards away from where Benazir Bhutto was killed in Rawalpindi. When the country's founding father died in 1948, barely a year after its birth, it was left to Khan to build on the democratic traditions that Jinnah had wished to bequeath the nation. However, Khan's murder ushered in an era of political instability that opened the door to military rule a few years later. To this day, we can only speculate on who was behind the killing as the murderer was gunned down on the spot.
The victim of another political killing, although not an assassination in the classical sense, was Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Benazir's father. Overthrown in a military coup in 1977, he had been Pakistan's first elected prime minister, and, like other third world leaders at the time, was trying to re-shape the economy along socialist lines. A modern, secular politician, he was subjected to a farcical trial and hanged on the orders of General Zia ul-Haq in 1979. The military dictator, a conservative Muslim, brought in draconian Islamic laws, many of which are still applied to women and minorities. Indeed, his 11 years in power changed the face of the country, making it one of the most retrogressive places in the Muslim world.
When Zia was killed in a mysterious plane crash in 1988, the country heaved a sigh of relief. But although he was gone, his legacy lives on in a very religiously oriented army. Reinforced by the fanaticism set loose by the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan, Pakistan's major intelligence agencies have relied heavily on religious zealots to further their agenda in Kashmir, Afghanistan, and further afield.
While Benazir Bhutto's death was tragic, it was not the first in her family. Apart from her father, both her younger brothers died violent deaths. Shahnawaz was poisoned in France in the mid-1980s, allegedly by Pakistani agents. And Murtaza was gunned down in Karachi by the police in a shoot-out in 1997 while his sister was prime minister. His death was one of the causes of the dismissal of her government.
On her return to Pakistan on October 18 last year, Bhutto was greeted by a massive suicide bombing that killed over 150 of her supporters, narrowly missing her. A desultory inquiry has led nowhere. And immediately after her killing in December her vehicle was hosed down, thus destroying all forensic evidence. This strengthens opposition suspicions of official connivance in her murder.
Each political assassination in Pakistan's brief but bloody history has been immediately followed by a major change in course. Given the weakness of political institutions, individuals have come to play dominant roles. Their removal from the scene has thus caused dramatic changes. Revealingly, no Pakistani leader other than Jinnah has died a natural death in office. He or she has been removed either in a coup, by constitutional jugglery backed by the army or through assassination.
Given this background, one can only speculate what would have happened if Liaquat Ali Khan, for instance, had not been killed in Pakistan's infancy. Would the country have agreed on a constitution and held elections, thereby avoiding the political vacuum that made it easy for the army to seize power?
Had Zulfikar Ali Bhutto not been killed in 1979, would he have handled the crisis created by the Soviet Union's 1980 invasion of Afghanistan any differently than Zia? It was the army dictator's use of Islamic fundamentalism to counter the Red Army that has let loose the scourge of global jihad on the world.
And given the victory of her Pakistan People Party's in the recent elections, would Benazir Bhutto have been successful in combating Islamic extremism, as she promised she would?
These are the ifs and buts of history, and we will never know the answers. But it is safe to say that Pakistan would be a very different country today had so many of its leaders not suffered violent deaths.- Published 6/3/2008 © bitterlemons-international.org
Irfan Husain is a weekly columnist for Dawn and the Daily Times. He served in the Pakistani civil service for 30 years and as president of a university for five years.
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