Guest Post: Time for America’s Arab allies to think again about the “deal of the century”

Time for America’s Arab allies to think again about the “deal of the century” Summary: Middle East states who backed the deal that President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu unveiled on 28 January may have reason to reconsider. The Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas said “1000 no’s”  to the so-called deal of the century and then he went to Cairo to ascertain the strength of support that Arab nations would give his call. Abbas may have had reason to be concerned that support for the Palestinians was weakening significantly and might even be in terminal decline. Three Gulf foreign ministers had turned up in Washington to listen to Donald Trump’s vague promises of what he called a “realistic two state solution.” Trump made sure to call out the ministers from Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates and thank them. “What a sign it portends,” said the president. Then it was the turn of the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He, too, acknowledged the foreign ministers. Then he rattled off with absolute clarity and no ambiguity whatsoever what the deal was all about: the annexation of the Jordan Valley, sovereignty over “all settlements large and small alike”, a permanent border along the Jordan River, the recognition by Palestine of Israel as a Jewish state, Hamas disarmed, the right of return forever denied, an undivided Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state. On and on he went making clear that in return for $50 billion the Palestinians would, he hoped, “embrace (the president’s) vision and seize the opportunity.” Jared Kushner, the prime architect of the deal, in an interview after the announcement said that if the Palestinians rejected the deal “they’re going to screw up another opportunity, like they’ve screwed up every other opportunity that they’ve ever had in their existence.” The statement was delivered in a tone that managed to combine insufferable smugness with a condescension and contempt for the Palestinian people that bordered on racist. The Saudis who were not in attendance did issue a statement from the foreign ministry that spoke of support for the “brotherly Palestinian people,” adding “The Kingdom appreciates the efforts of President Trump’s Administration to develop a comprehensive peace plan.” No mention of the Arab Peace Initiative proposed in 2002 by the late Saudi King Abdullah, who at that time was the crown prince. Integral to Abdullah’s plan was the recognition of a viable Palestinian state, side-by-side with Israel.  The plan called for the withdrawal of Israeli settlements from the West Bank and Gaza and the recognition of East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine. Instead the current Saudi position is to encourage the Palestinians to consider the Trump deal as a basis for the start of talks, a theme taken up by the Emiratis and the Egyptians. Thousands of Yemenis protest the "deal of the century" at a march for Palestine in Sanaa on January 30. Others were more sanguine particularly the Jordanians who in a country of a little more than 10 million are home to over 2 million Palestinian refugees. They reiterated support for the Arab Peace Initiative with their foreign minister noting “the dangerous consequences of unilateral Israeli measures, such as the annexation of Palestinian lands, the building and expansion of illegal Israeli settlements on occupied Palestinian lands, and encroachments on the Holy Sites in Jerusalem, that aim at imposing new realities on the ground.” In Cairo on 1 February Abbas secured from the Arab League what he had come for: a complete rejection of the deal. The league also agreed "not to ... cooperate with the US administration to implement this plan," adding that Israel should not implement the initiative by force. The Arab League is regarded, often rightly, as a toothless and ineffectual organisation.  However the deal seems to have given the Arab states a sense of direction and purpose that may be of use to Abbas. And Gulf states who thought that they could pressure the Palestinians into accepting the deal may well have misread the extent to which the Palestinian cause resonates with their citizens. The deal is so transparently one-sided, the arrogance of Netanyahu and Kushner so deliberate that to push for it is to insult not just the Palestinians but all Arabs. That the Saudis, the Emiratis and the Egyptians could be seen to be doing so at the behest of Israel and the United States makes it even more of a risky project to hitch your wagons to. It may be a small comfort to Mahmoud Abbas, perhaps no comfort at all but after the Israelis had announced they planned to proceed immediately with annexation, Jared Kushner rushed in to say that the US would not support such a move at least until after the 2 March election in Israel. While he has not bothered to inform himself of the Palestinian side of the story, he does understand that annexation at speed has the potential to blow his plan sky high and set the region ablaze.  And if he doesn’t understand it the Gulf supporters of his plan and the Egyptians surely do. With the chorus of disbelief and anger growing, the Trump allies in the Middle East who have supported the deal and in effect abandoned the Palestinians may want to think again. That is a slender hope but one that Mahmoud Abbas has little choice but to proceed on.