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Monday, February 3, 2020

Early evaluation of the Wuhan City travel restrictions in response to the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak | medRxiv

Early evaluation of the Wuhan City travel restrictions in response to the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak | medRxiv: An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was first reported in China and has spread worldwide. On January 23rd 2020 China shut down transit in and out of Wuhan, a major transport hub and conurbation of 11 million inhabitants, to contain the outbreak. By combining epidemiological and human mobility data we find that the travel ban slowed the dispersal of nCoV from Wuhan to other cities in China by 2.91 days (95% CI: 2.54-3.29). This delay provided time to establish and reinforce other control measures that are essential to halt the epidemic. The ongoing dissemination of 2019-nCoV provides an opportunity to examine how travel restrictions impede the spatial dispersal of an emerging infectious disease.

### Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

### Funding Statement

Funding for this study was provided by the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (JQ18025); Beijing Advanced Innovation Program for Land Surface Science; National Natural Science Foundation of China (81673234); Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by CAST (YESS)(2018QNRC001)

### Author Declarations

All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary

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