WPR Articles Jan. 17 — Jan. 25

Globalization Was Already on the Ropes. It’s Only Going to Get Worse

By: Daniel McDowell | Feature

Since 2008, the world economy has been caught in a vicious cycle that it can’t seem to break. With Trump’s election and China’s economic slowdown, global economic interconnectedness continues to unravel. A trade war now looks more likely than ever, with disastrous implications for the world economy.

How Will Countries Respond to China’s Shift From Global Exporter to Investor?

By: Damien Ma | Briefing

That China is an export powerhouse is well established. Less remarked upon is the rise of its newest export: capital. During his speech at the World Economic Forum this week—the first by a Chinese president—President Xi Jinping touted China’s efforts in facilitating global trade and economic development.

Why Americans Won’t Give Trump a Pass on Russia Ties

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Americans are watching with great interest to see how exactly the Trump administration manages bilateral ties with Russia and how Donald Trump deals with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is not a positive development for the incoming president, given Americans’ deep distrust of Moscow and Putin.

As Inequality Grows in Mexico, So Does Social Polarization

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Mexico has one of the highest rates of inequality among developed countries, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, with the richest 1 percent of the population owning almost half of the country’s wealth. In an email interview, Patricio Solís discusses income inequality in Mexico.

Under Hollande, Old Ills Plague French Policy in Africa

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

Security has defined France’s Africa policy under President Francois Hollande, who was in Mali last week for the final Africa-France Summit of his presidency. But critics argue that Hollande’s militaristic approach distracted from the institution-building necessary for long-term African stability.

Can Cote d’Ivoire Keep Its Soldiers in the Barracks?

By: Robbie Corey-Boulet | Briefing

Last week, Cote d’Ivoire’s government and soldiers who had mutinied claimed to have reached a deal to end their standoff. The mutiny proved that, six years after the creation of a new Ivoirian army amid post-election violence, the goal of a cohesive and disciplined fighting force is still far from reality.

Economic and Security Issues Sideline Women’s Rights in Egypt

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

An Egyptian court recently upheld a decision to freeze the assets of three women’s rights activists. The three are charged, along with five others, of using illegally obtained foreign funds to “destabilize Egypt.” In an email interview, Marwa Shalaby discusses women’s rights and gender equality in Egypt.

How Rafsanjani Became the Pragmatic Voice of Iran’s Revolution

By: Mohsen Milani | Feature

Iran’s late Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani left a powerful but mixed legacy. During his career he justified repression and catered to extremists, but was also often a voice of moderation. His death comes at a critical juncture in Iranian politics, leaving an uncertain fate for reform.

On Iran, Can Trump Make the Transition From Campaign Rhetoric to Policy?

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

When it comes to Iran, as on other issues, the views of Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees do not suggest an easy consensus about how to transition from the president-elect’s brash campaign promises—to cancel the Iran nuclear agreement, for example—to the messy world of less-than-ideal policy options.

Mexico Faces a Crucial Year as Trump and Domestic Pressures Converge

By: Paul Imison | Briefing

Amid U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threats on trade and immigration with Mexico, deeply unpopular Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto faces social unrest and a potential recession ahead of a presidential election in 2018, when another populist underdog will look to capitalize on public anger.

Morocco Renews Iran Ties—With Saudi Arabia’s Permission

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Earlier this month, Morocco’s ambassador to Iran presented his credentials in Tehran, restoring ties between the two countries that Rabat severed in 2009 over what it called Iran’s interference in Morocco’s internal affairs. In an email interview, Ann Wainscott discusses Morocco’s ties with Iran.

Trump Wants to Break the EU. Will He Instead End Up Being Its Savior?

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

Just when it seemed like the EU’s troubles couldn’t get any worse, Donald Trump rubbed salt in its wounds last week in an interview, lauding Brexit, disparaging German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and deriding the EU as a vehicle for German economic domination. But could Trump end up being the EU’s savior?

Taking Stock of the U.S. Rebalance and the Contest for Influence in Asia

By: Timothy R. Heath | Briefing

As Donald Trump prepares to assume the presidency of the United States, the contest with China for influence in Asia continues apace. The region’s ambiguous response to President Barack Obama’s rebalance or “pivot” owes less to any U.S. shortcoming than to the potency of its competitor, China.

Despite a Robust Women’s Movement, Turkey Sees Gender Equality Lag

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called women who work “half persons,” sparking outrage among many liberal Turks, though his statement resonated with the country’s conservative majority. In an email interview, Melinda Negrón-Gonzales discusses women’s rights and gender equality in Turkey.

In Life and Death, Rafsanjani Will Leave a Lasting Imprint on Iran’s Politics

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy agenda. For the Report, Mohsen Milani talks about former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s lasting influence on Iranian politics.

Is Sudan Coming In From the Cold?

By: Andrew Green | Briefing

One of the more unexpected decisions to emerge in the waning days of Barack Obama’s presidency was his move last week to ease U.S. sanctions against Sudan that have been in place for nearly two decades. The move to open up Sudan’s economy might encourage the reforms that 20 years of sanctions have not.

Which of America’s Adversaries Will Test Trump First?

By: Steven Metz | Column

America’s adversaries are almost certain to challenge President Donald Trump early on to test his inexperience in national security affairs. How he and his team respond will determine whether other adversaries mount challenges of their own. What is unclear is which of America’s adversaries will move first.

How a Conflict Economy Limits the Prospects for Peace in Central African Republic

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

According to Human Rights Watch, a new rebel group in the Central African Republic—known as Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation—has killed at least 50 people and displaced over 17,000 in the northwest of the country since late 2015. In an email interview, Igor Acko discusses the security situation in CAR.

Temer Has Few Easy Choices to Solve Brazil’s Prison Crisis

By: Christopher Looft | Briefing

Brazil’s president is having a kind of homecoming, but not the one he wanted. Michel Temer served in the 1980s as the top security official for the state of Sao Paulo, overseeing its prison system. He is now struggling to contain an unprecedented nationwide crisis in Brazil’s jails.

Will International Peacemaking Be the First Casualty of the Trump Era?

By: Richard Gowan | Column

What will international peacemaking look like in the Trump era? Five tentative but credible predictions paint a bleak picture. Though the U.S. has been edging back from its global peacemaker role for years, Donald Trump’s agenda will further damage institutions the U.S. built after 1945, starting with the U.N.

India’s Unique Brand of Populism Does Little to Tackle Inequality

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

A study by Oxfam found that inequality is on the rise in India, and that the richest 1 percent of Indians control 58 percent of the country’s total wealth. In an email interview, Vamsi Vakulabharanam, an associate professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, discusses income inequality in India.

The Bureaucracy and the Trump Administration Are Already Off to a Rough Start

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Presidential transitions are always a time of apprehension and uncertainty for the career civil servants who keep the big machine of government running. President Donald Trump’s plans make this particular transition scarier than most. His performance at the CIA on Saturday, in particular, is an ominous sign.

Why Poland’s Authoritarian Drift Puts the EU Between a Rock and a Hard Place

By: Andrew MacDowall | Briefing

The Polish opposition’s month-long occupation of parliament may have ended earlier this month, but the deep political divisions behind Poland’s latest political crisis remain. Critics fear that Poland could plunge deeper into authoritarian nationalism or even worse, undermining the EU at a crucial time.

‘America First’ Might Not Be Dangerous. Trump’s Version of It Is

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

With his inauguration address last Friday, President Donald Trump announced to Americans and the world that the “America First” era had arrived. But is this iconoclastic challenge to the U.S. foreign policy orthodoxy as alarming as it seems? How much does global stability still depend on the United States?

How the Israel Defense Forces Got Dragged Into Israel’s Culture Wars

By: Chuck Freilich | Briefing

Public support for the Israel Defense Forces has not prevented it from becoming an important locus of Israel’s domestic culture wars. The contending forces in Israeli society—right, left, religious and secular—seek to make use of the IDF’s unique role and prestige to promote their respective agendas.