WPR Articles April 15 — April 22

Nigeria’s Amnesty, Handouts Stave Off Wider Unrest in Niger Delta—For Now

By: Ayso van Eysinga | Briefing

Last week, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari vowed to crush those responsible for oil pipeline attacks in the Niger Delta. Buhari has offered mixed signals to the region, and his carrot-and-stick approach should avoid a full-scale insurgency. But the depth of resentment increases risks in the longer run.

Rousseff Impeachment Is Latest Sign of Latin America’s Broader Crisis of Trust

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

The impeachment proceedings against Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff are the latest disastrous news for Latin America’s left. And yet, observers of Latin American politics routinely overlook another part of the picture: Politicians of all stripes are getting battered by a restive public.

Cameron’s Brexit Referendum Ploy Could Lead to Broader EU Reforms

By: Milton Ezrati | Briefing

Just two months ahead of the so-called Brexit referendum, the prospects of a British exit from the EU have sent economists back to their computers to weigh how the vote will affect the country’s economy. But for the British public, matters of sovereignty and culture take precedence over economics.

To Stabilize Iraq, Loosen Internal Bonds Without Breaking Them

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

In the past five days, John Kerry and Ashton Carter have visited Iraq. The visits underscore how the Obama administration’s early plans to scale back America’s engagement in Iraq have come full circle. There’s no easy path to stability for Iraq, but some decentralization of power might help.

As President, Trump Would Definitely Change the U.S. Military—but How?

By: Steven Metz | Column

Even if he wins the GOP presidential nomination, Donald Trump’s bid for the White House remains a long shot. But strange things can happen in elections. While a Trump presidency may be unlikely, it would have far-ranging repercussions, particularly for U.S. defense policy and the American military.

Brunei Hopes the TPP Will Help Diversify Its Economy

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Earlier this month, a senior Bruneian official gave a speech to local business leaders on the benefits and the potential opportunities of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) for Brunei. In an email interview, Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, discussed the benefits and drawbacks of membership in the TPP for Brunei.

Iraq’s Dysfunction Means Victory Over ISIS Will Be Temporary and Incomplete

By: Steven Metz | Column

Even if the Islamic State is defeated on the battlefield, that will not end the problem of extremism and violence in Iraq, as there is little chance that the Iraqi government will engineer a sustainable, long-term solution to the political and economic problems that fueled the group’s rise.

The Philippines’ Reform Agenda in the Post-Aquino Era

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and host Peter Dörrie discuss the week's events. For the Report, Prashanth Parameswaran joins us to talk about corruption and reform in the Philippines under President Benigno Aquino III and what lies ahead for the next administration.

What Macri’s Pivot Means for the Future of U.S.-Argentina Ties

By: Jason Marczak | Briefing

Argentina is the new darling of Latin America. Just over four months into his term, President Mauricio Macri is taking every step to put the welcome mat out for the international community, and for the United States in particular. The Obama administration has reciprocated in kind. It’s a promising new era.

Secretary-General Candidates Fail in Bid to Make U.N. Hearings Boring

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Few analysts have lost money betting on a United Nations debate to be dull. So I felt all too comfortable last week when I predicted that a series of General Assembly hearings with candidates for the post of U.N. secretary-general would fall flat. But I must admit that I was, at least in part, wrong.

Ugandan Oil Pipeline Sparks Rivalry Between Kenya and Tanzania

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last month, Tanzania confiscated the passports of Kenyan officials who were working with a team of Ugandan officials on an analysis of proposed routes for an oil pipeline. In an email interview, Global Data’s Jonathan Markham discussed the dispute between Kenya and Tanzania over the proposed pipeline to export Ugandan oil.

Why More and More Laundered Money Flows In and Out of China

By: Andrew Wedeman | Briefing

The recent publication of the so-called Panama Papers has revealed a large number of offshore shell companies owned or linked to individuals and companies in either China or Hong Kong. But why might individuals in China and Hong Kong turn to secretive offshore companies to launder money in the first place?

Government Missteps Exacerbate Chile’s Growing Corruption Problem

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Earlier this month, in response to several corruption scandals exposed by reporters, the Chilean Senate passed a bill that would punish anyone for making public any information about ongoing judicial investigations. In an email interview, Wake Forest University’s Peter M. Siavelis discussed Chile’s fight against corruption.

Saudi Arabia’s Shiites Caught in the Crossfire Between Riyadh and Tehran

By: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen | Feature

Riyadh’s execution of prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr in January stoked outcry and deepened hostilities with Tehran. Nimr’s execution was the latest example of the long history of tension between Saudi Arabia and its Shiite minority, increasingly fueled by geopolitical tensions in the region.

Mayotte Islands Protest Inequality, But France Says Progress Takes Time

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

Denunciations of French President Francois Hollande’s government have spread to the French department and former colony of Mayotte. Residents are demanding “real equality” with the rest of France. And while protesters’ demands for change are legitimate, they are also premature.

Vucic’s Plans for a Reform Mandate Could Backfire in Serbia’s Election

By: Andrew MacDowall | Briefing

Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic called early elections, set for Sunday, to win a mandate for reforms needed to secure EU membership and transform Serbia’s economy. The vote was also intended to marginalize pro-Russian and other opposition parties. But the election may in fact embolden both.

What Would a Truly Unconventional Foreign Policy Presidential Candidate Look Like?

By: Michael A. Cohen | Column

Bernie Sanders has cultivated the image of a presidential candidate who stands outside the foreign policy mainstream, but in fact he resides squarely inside of it. Here’s what a candidate that really wanted to differentiate themselves from the conventional foreign policy wisdom might propose.

After Securing Exceptions, Japan Hopes to Benefit From TPP

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

After strong earthquakes in northern Japan over the weekend, Japan’s parliament decided to delay ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership in order to focus on disaster relief. In an email interview, Keio University’s Yorizumi Watanabe discussed the benefits and drawbacks of TPP membership for Japan.

The Pentagon Turns to Intellectual Property to Protect U.S. Military Dominance

By: Robert Farley | Briefing

Intellectual property sounds boring, but its protection has become one of the cornerstones of U.S. economic policy. Washington has made its protection a central part of every major trade agreement of the past decade. And now, it may have an impact on how the Pentagon thinks about the future of technology.

Cuba’s Communists Face Contradiction of Economic Reform vs. Ideology

By: William M. LeoGrande | Briefing

Cuba’s Communist Party congress this week focused on the economic, political and ideological challenges facing the party. On the questions of how to stimulate growth and manage relations with Washington, Cuba’s leadership faces inherent tensions between economic imperatives and political necessity.

U.S. Presidential Candidates Shake Things Up on Foreign Policy

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s Judah Grunstein and Peter Dörrie discuss Saudi Arabia’s Shiite minority; the U.K. referendum on EU membership; and instability in Nigeria’s Niger Delta. For the Report, Michael Cohen joins us to talk about foreign policy in the U.S. presidential election.