WPR Weekly 6/8

Editor’s Note The FIFA scandal has “added fuel to a potentially transformative movement” against corruption in Latin America, Frida Ghitis writes this week, putting governments in Brazil and elsewhere on notice. “The U.S. case against soccer corruption has hit Latin America at precisely the right moment, in precisely the right area.” Ahead of Sunday’s elections in Turkey, Michael Koplow looks at Turkey’s hot trade and cold ties with Israel. Despite booming bilateral trade—more Israelis flew on Turkish Airlines last year than on any other foreign carrier—“the hostile political status quo is likely to continue indefinitely,” he writes. In our latest feature, Christopher Sabatini explores Latin America’s still-powerful and largely unaccountable intelligence services, from Argentina to Colombia. “In a region marked by military coups and praetorianism,” he warns, “these persistent cracks in civilian control over security and intelligence operations remain a serious blemish on more than three decades of electoral democracy.” And our new special report on the plight of migrants and refugees includes 11 articles about the deadly Mediterranean crossings, the Rohingya crisis, the quiet catastrophe in Eritrea and more—all free for non-subscribers for the next two weeks. Coming up on WPR: Tom Woods and Michael Baca on the social fallout from Boko Haram, Brian Katulis on the United Arab Emirates’ foreign policy agenda and Elizabeth Becker on the risks and rewards of global tourism. —Frederick Deknatel, Associate Editor   WPR Articles June 1, 2015 - June 5, 2015 Burundi’s Military Still Key to Stability Amid Political Crisis By: Nina Wilén | Briefing Burundi’s army is a pivotal player in the country’s politics, with its ethnically balanced composition a central provision of the 2000 peace agreement that ended its civil war. The military’s role in the ongoing political crisis is crucial: Its actions could ultimately decide whether Burundi falls back into conflict. U.S.-Russia Frictions Mar NPT Review, Cloud Nuclear Horizon By: Richard Weitz | Column As expected, the recently completed Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference was much more contentious than the 2010 review. Several obstacles prevented the release of a consensus final document, but the inadequate cooperation between the U.S. and Russia was a major impediment. China’s Island-Building Pushes U.N.’s Legal Boundaries By: The Editors | Trend Lines China’s increased pace of island-building in the disputed South China Sea has angered many of its neighbors. In an interview, Mira Rapp Hooper of the Center for Strategic and International Studies discussed China’s rights under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Nusra Front, Al-Qaida’s Affiliate, Tries to Soften Its Image in Syria By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines An Al-Jazeera campaign to rebrand the Nusra Front, al-Qaida’s branch and one of the most powerful Syrian rebel groups, as a nationalist force was the latest sign that Syria’s civil war makes strange bedfellows. But in the murkiness of the conflict, Nusra’s al-Qaida affiliations cannot be ignored. Election Deal Calms but Doesn’t Solve Macedonia Crisis By: Andrew MacDowall | Briefing An EU-brokered deal for early elections soothes short-term tensions in Macedonia, where a wire-tapping scandal has set off a months-long political crisis. But the election could be almost a year away—plenty of time for backroom machinations, street protests and recriminations between rival parties.

More China’s Neighbors Are Wary of Its Assertiveness in the South China Sea By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines China’s aggressive island-building campaign is the latest in a series of moves by Beijing that have raised tensions in the South China Sea. Vietnam, Japan and the Philippines are all boosting their naval capacities and expanding regional partnerships to counter the growing threat posed by China. FIFA Scandal Reflects ‘West vs. Rest’ Divisions in Global Governance By: Richard Gowan | Column The FIFA corruption scandal is a microcosm of wider tensions plaguing international institutions, and offers lessons about the West’s ability to shape global public opinion. FIFA’s members seem just as sensitive to geopolitics as the diplomats who sit in the U.N. Security Council and the General Assembly. Hot Trade, Cold Ties: Israel and Turkey’s New Status Quo By: Michael Koplow | Briefing Despite newly converging interests in the Middle East and a chance for a diplomatic breakthrough a year ago, Israel and Turkey’s relations remain in a deep freeze at the highest levels of government. Bilateral trade continues to boom, but the two states are unlikely to reconcile anytime soon. Fight Against Islamic State Exposes Iraq’s Persistent Weaknesses By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines Iraq’s international partners agreed on Tuesday to back its plan to retake the city of Ramadi from the Islamic State, accelerate the training of local Sunni tribes and expand army recruitment. But that good news may have come too late. The fight against the Islamic State has already shown Iraq’s limits. Watching the Watchers: Intelligence Oversight in South America By: Christopher Sabatini | Feature Argentina, Chile, Peru and Colombia have made great strides in curtailing the autonomy of the armed forces in terms of accountability for past abuses. But recent events have demonstrated how far the region still has to go in improving transparency and civilian control over the intelligence services. Lasting Solution to Rohingya Refugee Crisis Depends on Myanmar By: Matthew J. Gibney | Briefing Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia have recently agreed to temporarily accept thousands of stranded Rohingya refugees and migrants who they initially turned away. But the problem of desperate boat people remains intractable. It cannot be solved without addressing its root causes, most of all in Myanmar. NSA Surveillance Debate Drowned Out on Both Sides by Fear Tactics By: Michael A. Cohen | Column There’s been an epidemic of hysteria sweeping through Washington this week, and politicians from across the political spectrum are all showing symptoms. Not surprisingly, the subject is domestic surveillance and the NSA, a topic for which over-the-top rhetoric has practically become de rigueur. In Latin America, FIFA Scandal Fuels Anti-Corruption Movement By: Frida Ghitis | Column U.S. prosecutors’ corruption indictments against FIFA officials added fuel to a potentially transformative movement in Latin America. Latin Americans are increasingly focused on corruption and have always been obsessed with soccer. The potent combination could have a lasting impact beyond the sport. With Eye on China, Japan Ramps Up Pacific Island Security Ties By: J. Berkshire Miller | Briefing Last month, Japan hosted the 7th Pacific Islanders Leaders Meeting, which represents the foundation of Tokyo’s engagement with states from the South Pacific. Amid competition from China, Japan is shifting its focus beyond overseas development assistance to deepen political and security cooperation with the region. Motivations for Islamic State’s Foreign Fighters Defy COIN Logic By: Steven Metz | Column Most local Iraqis and Syrians fighting for the self-proclaimed Islamic State believe they are defending their communities. The motives of the estimated 20,000 foreign fighters that have joined IS are more tied to deep psychological factors, making them less amenable to political solutions.