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Wednesday, February 6, 2013

The Sky Won’t Fall If Sequestration Goes Through - By Veronique de Rugy - The Corner - National Review Online


The Sky Won’t Fall If Sequestration Goes Through - By Veronique de Rugy - The Corner - National Review Online

After this afternoon’s press conference, I think conservative defense hawks should be careful what they wish for. By exaggerating the impact of the sequestration cuts on the defense budget, they are giving President Obama important leverage
to win revenue increases in exchange for overturning or postponing sequestration.  It is no secret that I think that Congress and the president should allow the sequestration cuts to go through. First, independently of the debt deal, after years of fast growth the Pentagon’s budget should be on the table for review and potential cuts like everything else (even if it is not the main driver of our future debt). Second, these spending reductions won’t be anywhere as deep as many claim they will. The CBO projections (see Table 1.3 here
, or Table 1.5 in the new CBO projections) about the impact of sequestration show that in the worst-case scenario (if all the cuts are applied to the baseline in the law), there will be initial reductions between FY 2012 and FY 2013, but that defense spending will continue to grow  in nominal terms for all years after. After sequestration, the FY 2013 defense budget will be comparable to its FY 2006 level (in real terms). Adjusted for inflation, over the next ten years, the spending is projected to remain relatively constant.   Besides, post-war reductions of defense spending are common practice, no matter how difficult they may be. In fact, if anything, the proposed cuts are less aggressive than historical standards. Stimson’ s defense analyst Russell Limbaugh explained
back in September 2011:
In the last three builddowns, the defense budget after 10 years has been about 30% lower than its peak: the builddown in the ‘50s took $2.3 billion out of the defense budget in ten years and left it 31% lower than it was; in the ‘70s, $1.2 trillion came out leaving the budget 28% lower; and in the ‘90s, $1 trillion for 31% lower.

If the administration’s extrapolation of the debt deal
 of $350 billion savings actually came to be, the defense budget would only be 8% lower than FY11.  
Check out the chart on that page. It is very instructive.

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