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Saturday, June 25, 2011

WPR Articles 18 Jun 2011 - 24 Jun 2011




WPR Articles 18 Jun 2011 - 24 Jun 2011

The Implications of SCO Enlargement

By: Nader Habibi | Briefing
At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's summit last week in Astana, Kazakhstan, the group considered the applications of Pakistan, India, Mongolia and Iran for full membership, with increasing indications that India and Pakistan might be admitted, although not before next year. Admission of these two nations could alter the mission and global relevance of the SCO as a regional multilateral organization.

China's Legal Exceptionalism Threatens International Integration

By: Iain Mills | Briefing
Some China-watchers have argued recently that the rule of law is weakening in the People's Republic. However, a less-commented-on countertrend is the re-emergence of legal processes inspired by indigenous conventions, such as trial by public opinion. This shift may explain China's more assertive foreign policy over the past 18 months and has significant implications for the country's leadership aspirations in Asia.

For U.S. Interventionists, 'Isolationism' Is Just a Dirty Word

By: Christopher Preble | Briefing
Sen. John McCain is worried about the direction of U.S. foreign policy, especially within his own party. Some Republicans have questioned the war in Afghanistan, while others have challenged the undeclared war in Libya. "This is isolationism," McCain declared. But the term "isolationist" is little more than a slur used to describe someone who thinks the U.S. should engage in fewer foreign wars than the speaker does.

Conflict and Resolution in Central Africa: Part I

By: Alex Thurston | Briefing
On June 12, the government of the Central African Republic (CAR) and the country's last major rebel force signed a peace agreement. The following day, Chad reached a peace deal with a CAR-based Chadian rebel group, capping a year of deals and arrests that progressively weakened Chad's armed insurgencies. For Chad and the CAR, peace and stability seem closer in 2011 than in 2008, when rebels terrorized both countries.

The Realist Prism: Obama's Afghanistan Course Correction

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column
President Barack Obama's speech Wednesday on America's policy toward Afghanistan in the coming year is another manifestation of his "Just Enough" doctrine, prioritizing satisfactory solutions over optimal ones. It also reflects another feature of his national security process: his propensity for gradual "glide paths," as opposed to the bold, dramatic, rapid actions he tended to speak of while a candidate.

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In Africa, Free Climate Data as Development Resource

By: John Perra | Briefing
With fewer weather stations than the developed world, Africa collects a comparatively small amount of climate data. But the value of that information may be immeasurable in terms of living conditions there. Scientists believe that readily accessible African data would allow farmers, aid workers and public health experts to better prepare and plan for catastrophic and common weather events alike.

The New Rules: Don't Fear U.S. Cyber Deterrence

By: Thomas P.M. Barnett | Column
It is tempting to view the Obama administration's new cyber strategy as the creation of yet another "conflict domain" to worry about in U.S. national security, driven by our habit of piling new fears on top of old ones. In truth, the strategy document is just our government acknowledging that any fruitful international dialogue on this subject awaits the first move by the system's most advanced military power.

Global Insights: South Korea's Nuclear Future

By: Richard Weitz | Column
The Asan Institute for Policy Studies held its first Asan Plenum in Seoul, South Korea, from June 12-15. The plenum will gather representatives of the world's leading think tanks to discuss a single global challenge, which will vary from year to year. The goal is to influence global policies toward the chosen issue. This year's plenum addressed "Our Nuclear Future," with an emphasis on the Korean Peninsula.

Making Sense of OPEC's Stalemate

By: Prashanth Parameswaran | Briefing
With oil prices nearing $120 a barrel, all eyes were on the 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during their meeting in Vienna earlier this month. The International Energy Agency had strongly urged OPEC, which produces 40 percent of the world's oil, to raise production output to stem rocketing oil prices and prevent a potential double-dip recession. That did not happen.

Over the Horizon: NATO, a User's Manual

By: Robert Farley | Column
Two weeks ago, Defense Secretary Robert Gates' parting broadside at the NATO alliance won applause from American pundits across the political spectrum, many of whom have long expressed frustration at European "fecklessness" and security free-riding. But instead of disparaging allies, it would make more sense for critics to consider what NATO can and cannot do, and adapt their expectations accordingly.

The Re-Enchantment of Network-Centric Warfare

By: Adam Elkus | Briefing
A month after the mission that killed Osama Bin Laden, defense analysts are pointing to a growing collaboration between conventional and irregular forces and are calling for a lighter global military footprint, one based on strike capability rather than ponderous presence. The newfound enthusiasm for "collaborative warfare" is reviving a concept once thought dead: network-centric warfare (NWC).

World Citizen: In Iran, the End of Ahmadinejad

By: Frida Ghitis | Column
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has represented the face of Iran for the West for more than half a decade, is on his way out of power in Tehran. Whether or not the ayatollahs formally push him out of office is yet to be seen. But the supreme leader and clerical establishment have lost faith in him. For practical purposes, the Ahmadinejad era of the Islamic Republic's history is coming to an end.

China Uses Surveillance Vessels to Enforce Claims

By: Abhijit Singh | Briefing
Against the backdrop of an escalating crisis with Vietnam over territorial claims in the waters off the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, China declared that it would boost its "offshore surveillance capability." China has used surveillance vessels to mark "presence" and intimidate foreign crafts. They are a blatant show of strength in China's perceived area of influence in the South China Sea and East Sea.

Conflict and Resolution in Central Africa: Part II

By: Alex Thurston | Briefing
While Chad and the Central African Republic are dismantling rebel groups and moving toward greater stability, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are continuing on a violent path. Internal rebellions within south Sudan in the run-up to its independence are complicated by ongoing tensions with north Sudan. Meanwhile, electoral tensions in the DRC are accompanied by ongoing military conflict.

For Thailand, Post-Election Turmoil a Near-Certainty

By: Fabio Scarpello | Briefing
Thailand has enjoyed a relative calm in the past few months. Political demonstrations have been orderly, and a string of bombs that shook the capital toward the end of 2010 did not continue into 2011. This lull, however, could be merely the calm before another storm. In fact, with a general election scheduled for July 3, a distinct lack of fundamental change characterizes Thailand's faulty democratic system.
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