Iraqis Turn Out To Vote

Iraqis Turn Out To Vote

On Sunday, Iraqis defied mortar fire, rockets, and bombings throughout the country and went to the polls to elect a new national government for the second time since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003. Despite the violence, the Iraqi Election Commission reported that 62 percent of Iraqis voted -- lower than the last national election's turnout in 2005 but "higher than last year's showing in provincial elections, suggesting higher stakes." The attacks united Iraqis across party lines, with some voters even mocking the insurgents' intimidation tactics. "We have experienced three wars before," said a supporter of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, "so it was just the play of children that we heard." "It was really a good day for Iraqi democracy," said U.S. ambassador to Iraq Christopher Hill. "And I believe it will be a foundation point, a new beginning for the U.S. relationship with Iraq that we hope will stretch for decades to come." President Obama praised the Iraqis' resolve as well. "I have great respect for the millions of Iraqis who refused to be deterred by acts of violence and who exercised their right to vote today," he said in a statement. "Their participation demonstrates that the Iraqi people have chosen to shape their future through the political process."

SUNNIS PARTICIPATE: As the New York Times noted, "The short and fierce political campaign could end up either solidifying Iraq's nascent democracy or leaving the country fractured along ethnic and sectarian lines." Sunni Arabs in Iraq largely boycotted the national elections in 2005 but showed up at the polls on Sunday in "droves" and "delivered Sunnis their most articulated voice yet on the national stage" since 2003. Many Sunnis reportedly cast their ballots for former secular (and Shiite) interim Iraqi leader Ayad Allawi's faction, which, along with Maliki's coalition, appears "to have fared the best" even though preliminary results will not be known for days. Whatever the results, Iraq's future remains uncertain. Sunni participation on Sunday "may make that landscape even more combustible, possibly even risking a revival of sectarian conflict. The demands of Sunni voters, from securing the presidency for a Sunni to diluting Iran's influence, could make the already formidable task in Iraq of forming a coalition government even more difficult." "This can go either way. And it can go either way for a long time to come," said Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador in Baghdad from 2007 to 2009. Even after the final results are tallied, Iraq's newly elected leaders will be engaged in a "months-long effort" to form a new government, one that could possibly "stretch beyond the self-imposed Aug. 31 U.S. deadline for withdrawing combat brigades."

IRAQ STILL A U.S. 'NET NEGATIVE': Despite uncertainty in recent weeks as to whether top U.S. commander in Iraq Gen. Ray Odierno would request a delay in withdrawing combat troops, he said yesterday on CBS News that "we certainly believe" that the U.S. will be able to meet the deadline. "I think we're on track," Odierno added on ABC. "I believe the Iraqi security forces are on track to assume more and more control." Wayne White, the State Department's principal Iraq analyst from 2003 to 2005, questioned U.S. influence in Iraq and said the U.S. military has little incentive in extending its stay. "If Humpty Dumpty is going to fall apart...there's very little that the United States is going to be able to do about it," he said, adding that Iraq's future "is not predictable. But that shouldn't stop us from expediting our withdrawal." Indeed, the war has cost nearly 5,000 U.S. and coalition lives, at least 100,000 Iraqis, and perhaps more than $3 trillion. Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Brian Katulis said recently that the Iraq war remains a "net negative" for U.S. foreign policy. "We're still trying to take a sad song and make it better," he said last week, speaking on a panel at the neoconservative American Enterprise Institute.

THE NEXT STEPS: Despite the successful elections, Crocker said he still thinks the Iraq war's most important events may have yet to take place. "I believed it [when I was ambassador]," he stated. "I believe it now. ... We need to stay heavily and directly engaged. Iraq is going to need that engagement...for quite some time to come." However, Katulis and CAP's Peter Juul wrote last week that suggestions the United States "renege its commitment to redeploy its forces from Iraq" according to the security agreement signed with Iraq in 2008, "are misguided." "The main objective driving U.S. policy," Katulis and Juul noted, "should ultimately be to help Iraqis take control of their own affairs. Sticking to this schedule as closely as possible is best for broader U.S. national security interests unless there is a serious request by a unified Iraqi leadership to change the troop redeployment schedule." The U.S. should now assist in ensuring that Iraq's voters view the election results as legitimate and to "play a supportive diplomatic role as Iraq's leaders sort through what is likely to be a long, messy process for forming a new national government."