ArabDigest.org Deal of the century: new information?

Deal of the century: new information?

Summary: a new book outlines a deal involving Arab states but not Palestine; likely to inflame opinion whether or not it is true.
A new book “Kushner, Inc. Greed. Ambition. Corruption” by Vanity Fair journalist Vicky Ward released on 19 March claims to have new information about the “deal of the century”, Kushner’s Middle East peace plan. According to various reports (Ha’aretz, Intelligencer) Kushner wanted … “the Saudis and Emiratis to provide economic assistance to the Palestinians… multiple people who saw drafts of the plan, noting that Saudi Arabia — presumably thanks to Kushner’s new bestie, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — would build an oil pipeline from Saudi Arabia to Gaza, where refineries and a shipping terminal could be built. The profits would create desalination plants, where Palestinians could find work, addressing the high unemployment rate… The plan also entailed land swaps, so that Jordan would give land to the Palestinian territories. In return, Jordan would get land from Saudi Arabia, and that country would get back two Red Sea islands it gave Egypt to administer in 1950.
According to a National Public Radio review of the book Ward claims she interviewed 220 people for the book but is vague on who they are – close associates, family friends, a “person” – sometimes no source at all. It is not clear from the reports we have seen whether she alleges that the above ideas are still the plan, or whether they have been superseded and if so by what. Jason Greenblatt, White House Middle East envoy who has been working with Kushner on the deal, tweeted “No one who has seen the plan would spread misinformation like that. Whoever made these claims has bad info. Next time feel free to reach out to us before you run with a story. A lot of people are sharing false info with the press now for bad reasons.”
In our posting of 1 March we quoted at length from Kushner’s 25 February interview published by Sky News Arabia which did not give hard information about the plan but gave some general principles and emphasised the importance of “establishing borders and resolving final status issues”. The interview neither confirms nor refutes the ideas which have now appeared in Ward’s book, but is not inconsistent with them. Pending new information it seems probable that Ward’s ideas of the deal (which are much in line with others who have speculated about Kushner’s intentions) are at least partly correct. Certain things about the deal seem clear: close consultation at every stage with the Israeli government, involvement of Arab states but not Palestine, concentration on an economic rather than a political approach, disregard of sensitive issues such as the occupation, the settlements, the right of return, and disregard of established US positions and international law. Ironically David Makovsky writing on the pro-Israeli Washington Institute website suggests that the deal may come unstuck as a result of the Israeli election, with even the possibility that Netanyahu will be defeated.
An example of the disregard of established positions is President Trump’s announcement yesterday 21 March that “After 52 years it is time for the United States to fully recognise Israel’s Sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is of critical strategic and security importance to the State of Israel and Regional Stability!” (which he said he did not intend as an explicit election boost for Benjamin Netanyahu). The announcement does not change the legal position that this is Syrian territory, and does not obviously improve Israel security; it makes sense as a gift to Netanyahu just before the election, and thanking Trump for the declaration Netanyahu said “At a time when Iran seeks to use Syria as a platform to destroy Israel, President Trump boldly recognizes Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.” Turkey and the EU have already made clear that their position on Golan has not changed.
These developments are likely to inflame Arab opinion against the US and the deal of the century. If governments go along with the deal they will be exposed to criticism on nationalist lines and their position will be correspondingly weakened. Even if the stories in Ward’s book are entirely false, they will be believed. The alleged involvement of Egypt and Jordan is particularly delicate. Public opinion in Egypt has shown itself acutely sensitive on the question of the two islands in the Straits at the mouth of the Gulf of Aqaba, Tiran and Sanafir (our posting of 12 September 2018), and in Jordan the idea of ceding territory to become a home for a new Palestine is likely to be anathema both to Palestinian and trans-Jordanian opinion. In Syria, on the other hand, President Asad’s government can expect that all Syrians will agree in rejecting Israeli annexation of Golan, and may indeed see Iran as their essential defence. So far we have seen no Arab reaction to Ward, but note that the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister said at a press conference on 20 March during Mike Pompeo’s visit “We hope the plan will take into account the situation in the region and all the relevant parties.”
The Ha’aretz report quoted above concludes with the comment “If Kushner succeeds in selling that one to the Palestinians, he may want to try selling them London Bridge while he’s at it.”